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Topic: I challenge Primo! Pascals Triangle.

Primo seems to be of the opinion Pascals triangle cannot be used to calculate odds.

This fundemental challenge to a math law awes me. If he can prove his theorem I will pay him $3500 USD and half my salary for the rest of the year.

Additionally I will nominate him for a nobel prize in math (comes with a $1,000,000 prize) and a Feilds award in math (comes with a $2,000,000 prize)

First a primer on the current established LAWS of probabilities http://gwydir.demon.co.uk/jo/probability/info.htm

This is evidence of usage in GMat questions http://www.beatthegmat.com/coin-flip-qu … 17911.html

Pascals Triangle has a wiki http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pascal's_triangle

Then the Wolfram breakdown: http://mathworld.wolfram.com/PascalsTriangle.html


Now Primo....

I said simply, in math terms the following:

Pascals Triangle where binary results can be studied

1 - 1
1 - 2 - 1
1 -3 - 3 -1

This continues

Now if 0 is .75 and 1 is .25 and 0 is left and 1 right

3 games is this

(.75^3) - (.25*.75*.75) - (.25 * .25 * .75) - (.25^3)

This would stand for townie 3 times in a row, 2 times of 3, 1 out of 3, mafia 3 times in a row.

Basic binary math, aka odds calculating, says Torqez had a  23.73946875% to be a townie 5 times in a row and a 17.79785156% chance to be a townie again a 6th time. This is not insurmountable odds, but does weigh against him.

If you, or anyone else, can prove Pascal's Triangle to be false, please do so!

Everything bad in the economy is now Obama's fault. Every job lost, all the debt, all the lost retirement funds. All Obama. Are you happy now? We all get to blame Obama!
Kemp currently not being responded to until he makes CONCISE posts.
Avogardo and Noir ignored by me for life so people know why I do not respond to them. (Informational)

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Re: I challenge Primo! Pascals Triangle.

rofl

Given 50% chance to be a townie, each game ..

Probability of being Townie 5 times in a row = 0.5^5 = 0.03125 = 3.125%

Probability of 'then' being Townie again for the 6th time is 0.5 = 50%

Thanks, what's your e-mail address, I need to mail you my bank account details.

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Re: I challenge Primo! Pascals Triangle.

Torqez wrote:

Probability of being Townie 5 times in a row = 0.5^5 = 0.03125 = 3.125%

Sorry, perhaps I should make this even clearer, given it's you.  The reason for this, is that there's 32 possible outcomes after 5 games.  Being:

1: Mob, Mob, Mob, Mob, Mob
2: Twn, Mob, Mob, Mob, Mob
3: Mob, Twn, Mob, Mob, Mob
4: Twn, Twn, Mob, Mob, Mob
...
...
32: Twn, Twn, Twn, Twn, Twn

Therefore, 1/32 = 3.125%

E-mail?

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4 Reply by Einstein (edited by Einstein 26-Mar-2013 16:22:31)

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Re: I challenge Primo! Pascals Triangle.

75% chance to be town, dur.

You're fail, you're worse than fail you're a charlatan.

Go ask a math proffessor if you're eriously stuck on this.

Everything bad in the economy is now Obama's fault. Every job lost, all the debt, all the lost retirement funds. All Obama. Are you happy now? We all get to blame Obama!
Kemp currently not being responded to until he makes CONCISE posts.
Avogardo and Noir ignored by me for life so people know why I do not respond to them. (Informational)

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Re: I challenge Primo! Pascals Triangle.

For you that is .75^5 currently with .75^6 if townie again.



How else, in compression, do you think I check this stuff? If a text format can be made into 71% 'ones' and 29% 'zeros' then to find the probable outcomes of a given 4 bit string occuring or 8 bit string occuring (or whatever) then i substitute the percentage for every 1 and 0 as appropriate.

Everything bad in the economy is now Obama's fault. Every job lost, all the debt, all the lost retirement funds. All Obama. Are you happy now? We all get to blame Obama!
Kemp currently not being responded to until he makes CONCISE posts.
Avogardo and Noir ignored by me for life so people know why I do not respond to them. (Informational)

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Re: I challenge Primo! Pascals Triangle.

Probability of being Townie 5 times in a row = 0.5^5 = 0.03125 = 3.125%
Probability of 'then' being Townie again for the 6th time is 0.5 = 50%

then how come people don't play Let It Ride by flipping coins?

The core joke of Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy is that of course no civilization would develop personal computers with instant remote database recovery, and then waste this technology to find good drinks.
Steve Jobs has ruined this joke.

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Re: I challenge Primo! Pascals Triangle.

Closed. No monetary exchanges may occur over the forums.

Modestus Experitus

Arby: A very strict mod, reminds me of a fat redneck who drives a truck around all day with a beer in one hand. I hated this guy at the start, however, I played a round in PW with him where he went as an anonymous player. Our fam got smashed up and everyone pretty much left. Arby stayed around and helped out the remaining family. At the end of the round he revealed himself.... My views on him have changed since. Your a good guy.....

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