26 (edited by RisingDown 18-Feb-2011 14:34:55)

Re: USA drowning in debt

enforcer of law and order --> Afghanistan, where they went to kick Taliban ass because the Taliban didn't want to help the US in their fight against Al Qaida. They went to Afghanistan to enforce laws and a government that would not safeharbour Al Qaida. They went to Afghanistan to enforce their (US) law. Besides, it's a metaphor.

Furthermore I do not think China is going to crash any time soon. Some people argue they have a housing bubble that's about to blow up, similar to what happened in the US. However we saw how China got through the last financial crisis, becoming the new motor of the world economy. This bubble bursting might not have that big of an effect, if it does burst.

Maar doodslaan deed hij niet, want tussen droom en daad,
Staan wetten in de weg en praktische bezwaren,
En ook weemoedigheid, die niemand kan verklaren,
En die des avonds komt, wanneer men slapen gaat.

27 (edited by Little Paul 18-Feb-2011 22:13:22)

Re: USA drowning in debt

@rd:
sounds like your opinion then instead. That's my point exactly.

"Furthermore I do not think China is going to crash any time soon."
They said that about tunis, egypt etc...Internal tension is huge.

"Some people argue they have a housing bubble that's about to blow up, similar to what happened in the US."
I doubt its a bubble, in fact I think it will only grow into an even bigger space problem soon (translated in high prices) causing even more tension.

Re: USA drowning in debt

RisingDown... it's not only the US law, it's international law as decided by international councils.

Re: USA drowning in debt

is it coincidental that it is both us and international law, or is it because it is us law that it is international law?

Maar doodslaan deed hij niet, want tussen droom en daad,
Staan wetten in de weg en praktische bezwaren,
En ook weemoedigheid, die niemand kan verklaren,
En die des avonds komt, wanneer men slapen gaat.

Re: USA drowning in debt

@RS:
can't determine what you're saying now. In one post US is doomed to hell and in the next its more powerful then the sun. The sun will burn many more years you know.

In any case international law, and even its enforcement, is made up by multiple variables and one of them is influences of people with a lot of power. Its almost 100% sure those come from a lot of different places around the world. Else you're just plain naive.

31 (edited by RisingDown 19-Feb-2011 12:43:08)

Re: USA drowning in debt

What I mean is, the US has a lot of power. It has gained this power in the past, and for the time being it still remains in power. This power, however, may disappear very suddenly, as the US has become too dependent on other countries, going even to the point where China owns the majority of US debt.

However, as it still has power in this time and has a lot of countries following them mindlessly (UK, Netherlands, etc. basically Europe as a whole except for perhaps France, for its own reasons), it can still enforce it's influence. It also has a very strong military, as it has attempted to show in the last decade by invading Iraq and Afghanistan.

So as it is now, the US can influence international law as it wants. However, this may change soon: when China's domestic market grows enough so that it can support itself instead of having to export cheap goods (if it does not succumb to riots and revolutions), China will most definitely start to become more assertive/agressive. This can become a very dangerous situation for the US, due to China basically owning US debt.
What does a bank do when you're in a lot of debt and not able to repay it? It starts to repossess your properties.

You argue that China will not be able to repossess US properties, because the debt is only an agreement and the US could just choose to ignore that agreement. However, I think that by that time US alliance with other countries will have weakened (due to a stronger China) and the US will not be able to afford said agreement, as it would just expose how hypocritical the US is and how others cannot trust it, causing it to lose even more allies. That would weaken the US's power even further.

This way the US will effectively selfdestruct due to its large debt and who it owes this debt to.

Maar doodslaan deed hij niet, want tussen droom en daad,
Staan wetten in de weg en praktische bezwaren,
En ook weemoedigheid, die niemand kan verklaren,
En die des avonds komt, wanneer men slapen gaat.

Re: USA drowning in debt

Dude, the US refused to pay dates when we were a weak country lol
Part of the reason for the revolution was that settlers in America had huge debts to the English... They were never payed. Also debts to the Netherlands, more were payed, but many were forgotten. Terrible integrity, but it happens. Debt alone will not fall a giant.
Look at the distribution of wealth in China. This is a huge reason why China will never take the superpower position. As well as their lack of property rights and innovation. RisingDown, take a history class

33 (edited by RisingDown 19-Feb-2011 17:46:03)

Re: USA drowning in debt

You think there's gonna be another revolution? And one problem, in the revolution the US defeated the English to gain control of their land (and this was not only due to high taxes or debts, there were several reasons), I don't see them defeating China as easily if there's a war, and the motifs would be different. It'd be a slaughter and not quite politically correct.
The Netherlands, or the United Dutch Provinces, were already in decline when the US emerged. China, on the other hand, is emerging at this moment as the US is declining. I do not see the point of comparing debts to the United Dutch Provinces to debts to China.

Comparing the US debts in present times to their debts in the past... that's one half-assed comparison.

Distribution of wealth in China? First of all, as I've said China is workign on it's domestic market which will probably result in a larger middle class. Secondly, have you seen the distribution of wealth in the US? Yes, it's not as bad as in China, but in China the situation is actually becoming better (gap between rich and poor closing a little, or at least looking like it will) whilest in the US it's getting worse (gap becoming bigger).

History class? No thanks.

Maar doodslaan deed hij niet, want tussen droom en daad,
Staan wetten in de weg en praktische bezwaren,
En ook weemoedigheid, die niemand kan verklaren,
En die des avonds komt, wanneer men slapen gaat.

Re: USA drowning in debt

"You argue that China will not be able to repossess US properties, because the debt is only an agreement and the US could just choose to ignore that agreement."
idd.

"However, I think that by that time US alliance with other countries will have weakened (due to a stronger China)"
If you talk about third world countries that could be right. And those are important. But not important enough.

"and the US will not be able to afford said agreement, as it would just expose how hypocritical the US is and how others cannot trust it, causing it to lose even more allies. That would weaken the US's power even further."
I doubt it. Europeans always bash about US but when it really comes to it, the US is preferred as world leader over china by the majority of the population. People in Europe fear a strong China or Russia but do not fear a strong US. No autocratic regime will ever get enough credit. Public opinion matters.

"but in China the situation is actually becoming better (gap between rich and poor closing a little, or at least looking like it will)"
no it doesn't. It increases every year and those are only the stats permitted by the gov. to leak. I don't wanna know the real status.

Re: USA drowning in debt

one of the most informative videos i have seen on this subject:
Money Masters: How international bankers gained control of America.

It is quite dated, and quite long, but second to none on this subject.

Re: USA drowning in debt

The point remains. Debt alone is not enough to take down America.

My point in bringing up the Am. Rev. is that those debts did not destroy our nation in the past. In fact, it was a large part of why we wrote the Constitution to replace the Articles of Confederation. And many of those debts unfortunately went unpaid. Credibility lost? Maybe, but after a generation, no one cares. Also...

China's economy STILL RELIES ON THE U.S.! Theres a reason all the crap around you is made in china, because American's can afford to buy their goods and it's cheap to us! We are a consumer economy, China is still the manufacturers. Manufacturers can't continue without customers.

China's separation of wealth is not getting better. I've been there, have you? Middle class is nearly not existant. Especially not to the extent of Americans. When we speak of separation of wealth in America, it's not between people starving in the streets and others who are buying million dollar yachts. The bulk of America's population considers themselves in the middle class because yes, money is tight.. but tight in the fact that they can't afford to buy all that they desire, but most can buy what they need.



Also, China's GDP is still 1/3 of Americas.
Average salary in the US, $47,000. Average salary in China? $6,000
Literacy rate US, 99.0%. Literacy rate in China? 90%

China is growing, and that is great! However, you are a fool if you think they will somehow topple America. Or even desire to. Economics is a symbiotic affair.

37 (edited by RisingDown 20-Feb-2011 11:52:06)

Re: USA drowning in debt

The point does not remain, it's 2 very different situations that cannot be compared to each other.

Yes, China's economy is still relying on the US. However, as I have stated many, many times, China is working on it's domestic market, in an attempt to make it's economy rely less on the US..... And in a way, the US is reliant on China for cheap goods.
However, they also compete with each other for raw recourses. And as it is, China may actually be winning this: as the US is losing it's grip on the 3rd world countries that produce most recourses, China is actually making agreements with them and forging bonds.

And yes I am aware that there is a huge gap between those who own factories and those who work in factories, or even worse: the farmers. However, as has been mentioned by others, salaries cannot be kept low (especially if they want to grow their domestic market).  Some people even argue it may cause civil unrest as the middle class starts to grow, due to cultural differences and growing need for human rights. Nevertheless, their middle class will grow. The situation as it is may be bad but it will improve, whilest the situation in the US is only degrading due to the financial crisis of the last decade.


In regards to your numbers:
China's GDP is rising quickly while America's GDP is stagnant (relatively).
Salary has to be seen in relation to prices. Prices in China in lower. (However there is still more poor people in China, that is true).
Literacy rate does not ensure a good job. It does help though. Have you, however, read a recent article in Time Magazine? It compared scores students got on math and spelling (if i recall) with each other. I'll try to find it later and edit it in. It had a very interesting graph that you might wanna have a look at.

China is growing, and that may not be good for us. You are a fool if you think it will somehow NOT topple America. It does desire to. Economics is symbiotic but China is trying to go on on itself.

Maar doodslaan deed hij niet, want tussen droom en daad,
Staan wetten in de weg en praktische bezwaren,
En ook weemoedigheid, die niemand kan verklaren,
En die des avonds komt, wanneer men slapen gaat.

38 (edited by RisingDown 20-Feb-2011 12:13:23)

Re: USA drowning in debt

China Beats Out Finland for Top Marks in Education
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2035586,00.html

they did test an urban region though, and did not test a rural region which would definitely have changed the results.


Not the article I meant but i can't find it :\. This is similar though.

Maar doodslaan deed hij niet, want tussen droom en daad,
Staan wetten in de weg en praktische bezwaren,
En ook weemoedigheid, die niemand kan verklaren,
En die des avonds komt, wanneer men slapen gaat.

Re: USA drowning in debt

@rising down:
the average salary Bladenosh showed is even without the people who do not exist officially but sure are there. This is a very large amount of people. Its only a question how great an amount will die off or will live.

"Yes, China's economy is still relying on the US. However, as I have stated many, many times, China is working on it's domestic market, in an attempt to make it's economy rely less on the US..... And in a way, the US is reliant on China for cheap goods."
China's domestic market isn't growing very fast. In fact its the exact opposite compared to their export. If it did, it would be devastating for world economy as there are not enough resources or farm outputs to feed the meat eating Chinese.

At this moment china is getting rich in dollars mainly. If US econ collapses, EU and Chinas will as well. It will only cause unrest. It will not happen anytime soon.

China would wan't to buy eg euro's but if they do, the US dollar collapses and with it the stock markets. Their euro's wouldn't be worth anything then. If they keep the dollar, they will go down if US goes down.

Then you still did not answer the question of how the chinese population will survive without food, as the US is one of its biggest suppliers. It can't be replaced.

about the literacy:
a lot of people in china are "illegal" because of multiple reasons (one child policy to name one). They did not have any form of education. Only in this cities education is good.

Re: USA drowning in debt

"the average salary Bladenosh showed is even without the people who do not exist officially but sure are there. This is a very large amount of people. Its only a question how great an amount will die off or will live."
Same goes for the US with the illegals. Though it is less, obviously.

"China's domestic market isn't growing very fast. In fact its the exact opposite compared to their export. If it did, it would be devastating for world economy as there are not enough resources or farm outputs to feed the meat eating Chinese."
China is actually working towards getting enough resources and farms, by competing with the US for them. Yes, there aren't enough resources and farms to feed both the US and China. This may be another reason for US downfall as US contacts with producing countries in the 3rd world decline and those of China are improving (for instance Columbia, where China is now building railroads to replace the panama channel).


"At this moment china is getting rich in dollars mainly. If US econ collapses, EU and Chinas will as well. It will only cause unrest. It will not happen anytime soon.

China would wan't to buy eg euro's but if they do, the US dollar collapses and with it the stock markets. Their euro's wouldn't be worth anything then. If they keep the dollar, they will go down if US goes down."

Yes, that is the main problem. When the US market collapses, markets worldwide will collapse. Even though it didn't show as much in the recent financial crisis (countries such as Brasil who have been growth powerhouses kept growing), I do believe that when the US does collapse it will have a greater impact.
However, the system the US maintains at this moment will collapse some time in the future. But that'd be about how a free market works: an entirely different discussion.

China could easily feed itself by intesifying its agriculture and making it more efficient. This would of course cause a lot of urbanization and ruin the lives of farmers. Furthermore China is the main producer for North Korea: this costs them a lot of food that they could use for themselves. If China decides to drop North Korea as its ally it could keep the food for itself.

About the literacy: yes, that's what i mentioned myself.

Maar doodslaan deed hij niet, want tussen droom en daad,
Staan wetten in de weg en praktische bezwaren,
En ook weemoedigheid, die niemand kan verklaren,
En die des avonds komt, wanneer men slapen gaat.

41 (edited by Little Paul 20-Feb-2011 21:28:59)

Re: USA drowning in debt

"China could easily feed itself by intesifying its agriculture and making it more efficient."
I strongly disagree with that opinion. They already intensified their agriculture, and there simply isn't enough space for farms, even if they quadruple their output. Also, producing food will only be more expensive, as energy prices increase every year.

"Furthermore China is the main producer for North Korea: this costs them a lot of food that they could use for themselves. If China decides to drop North Korea as its ally it could keep the food for itself."
Thats right. But NK only consists of 20-25 million people of which only a part (huge as it might be) uses chinese food. Chinas population is above 2 billion according to some estimations.

"About the literacy: yes, that's what i mentioned myself."
ok lol.

Another note about china's econ. A lot of their growth comes from investements of foreign countries in combination with a low Yuan.  Almost any big trading partner demands a more reasonable course of the Yuan. Comming from nothing with stockpiles of cheap educated labour, its highly unlikely they will grow as much in the future as they did in the past.

If china's internal market grows bigger, it will also mean more export for other nations like US or EU, and make cheap labour less cheap every year.