Topic: US decline- effects?

In 2000 the US accounted for 32% of the Worlds GDP.

In 2010 this figure has dropped to 24%.

clearly the USA is slowly on the decline.

what will the effects be?

Will the USA try to maintain it's position as number 1? or will it bow out gracefully?
will other nations try to aggressively challenge the USA? or will it be a peaceful and quiet decline?

Buddugoliaeth neu Marwolaeth

Re: US decline- effects?

havign destroyed our country to be like Europe, we are going to become like Africa

The core joke of Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy is that of course no civilization would develop personal computers with instant remote database recovery, and then waste this technology to find good drinks.
Steve Jobs has ruined this joke.

Re: US decline- effects?

i have said it before, the reason we are on top is that we are the best customers that the world has, most every nation's economy is based on our purchasing their products, that means if we fail, every major exporting country in the world fails.
thats why china is doomed to fail as well, they think that having our gold will help them, but the fact is that no other country in the world has everything they need right in their own country like we do... there is nothing that we need for survival that we can't make for ourselves.
i live in kentucky, and even we could live without imports from anyone in the world period.

don't touch me i am contagious........;p

Re: US decline- effects?

> Born2BwilD wrote:

> i have said it before, the reason we are on top is that we are the best customers that the world has, most every nation's economy is based on our purchasing their products, that means if we fail, every major exporting country in the world fails.
thats why china is doomed to fail as well, they think that having our gold will help them, but the fact is that no other country in the world has everything they need right in their own country like we do... there is nothing that we need for survival that we can't make for ourselves.
i live in kentucky, and even we could live without imports from anyone in the world period.


why do you think china is buying your deficit and already owns like 80% of it? they're keeping you guys alive till they can survive on their own.

Maar doodslaan deed hij niet, want tussen droom en daad,
Staan wetten in de weg en praktische bezwaren,
En ook weemoedigheid, die niemand kan verklaren,
En die des avonds komt, wanneer men slapen gaat.

Re: US decline- effects?

China has 1.3 billion people. as they keep developing they'll start to produce for their domestic market. the US economy is burdened by huge debt, but worse is outsourcing. American exports are declining. one US advantage is the position of the geenback as the global reserve currency. what happens when that changes? and it will change... eventually. Amerca will be the sole military superpower for quite sometime, but it's influence will decline as the economic power declines. just take a look at china this week and the nobel peace prize.1/3 of the countries invited to Oslo failed to turn up because China put pressure on them not to. that's called INFLUENCE.

America has a huge influence around the world because of its economic and military power. the reason why the US can spend so much on the military is because of its strong economy. but when things start going downhill the US will see defence cuts and the US will have to reduce its military presence around the world.

the last couple of years we've already seen the US expressing concern at Chinese military spending increases- why is the US the sole superpower expressing concern? because they know that although China is nowhere near them at present, it wont take huge changes to make China more of a threat.

if we look at Great Britain in the late 19th century. for years they were in economic decline but it took a while for that to be seen militarily. even then though Britain projecting the image of massive naval superiority even though by 1900 the Royal Navy had declined in relative strength majorly compared to powers such as Germany and the US.

China is starting to build carriers, Russia is building new ones (allegedly) so is India, Britain too & France (possibly). Brazil is building up the navy too.

America will be number 1 for the next 2 decades but whereas in the South China Sea they had total superiority, the Chinese will have developed into a major threat.

the traditional US Carrier  Group IMO will just not have the same influence it once did. especially not if the chinese have their own carriers, and Anti-Ship Ballistic Missiles.

at Present the USA owns the Gulf and dominates the Indian Ocean, but how long will that go on for?especially after defence cuts?

Buddugoliaeth neu Marwolaeth

Re: US decline- effects?

US  still has the  biggest guns

http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2010/12/video-navys-mach-8-railgun-obliterates-record/

That's how fast it takes for a guy to get whacked

Re: US decline- effects?

well, on the surface emperor you'd be right, but from what i know they are doing a ponzi scheme on china.

first; from what i have heard they got our gold in return for the debt that we owed them, but that is superficial, gold isn't like it used to be, there are plenty of things that are more valuable that we have, and i think the gold mines that the government owns (that they purposely left the gold in) could produce enough additional gold to drop the cost of it in a year if they wanted to.

second; our money is't gone, and we really aren't in that much debt, most of it we owe to ourselves, than to actual other countries (don't forget that the other countries owe us too) if they let a investigative accountant look at it we would find that most of our debt is hung up in the same crap that they talked about in the movie Dave "where the guy poses as the president".

third; all property that is owned in the US by other countries can be confiscated with an act of congress so thats like swamp land to them.

fourth; like i said, we don't need anything from other countries that we can make for ourselves, but they need us.

don't touch me i am contagious........;p

Re: US decline- effects?

white elephant, wake me when you can fire 20 a minute with that thing.  THEN it MIGHT provide effective fire support, though it's still going to be 500 miles short of a tomahawk cruise missle.  Unless we have to fight in the Arctic Circle again, its gonna be more combat-effective to rip out the turret and put in a helipad, and run JSFs off the deck.

now....if we can swap out the 105mm on a Spectre gunship for a gun with a 100-mile range, THAT would be nasty.

The core joke of Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy is that of course no civilization would develop personal computers with instant remote database recovery, and then waste this technology to find good drinks.
Steve Jobs has ruined this joke.

9 (edited by Phoenix Mailer 13-Dec-2010 21:59:56)

Re: US decline- effects?

"In 2000 the US accounted for 32% of the Worlds GDP"


GDP measures consumption and not the production potencial of the economy.
Also ask yourself the question which economy is stronger:
a) one that produces one car for $1,000,000 (GDP=1mil)
b) one that produces 1,000,000 cars for $1 each (GDP=1mil)

Re: US decline- effects?

yeah gotta admit the rail gun is pretty cool

Buddugoliaeth neu Marwolaeth

Re: US decline- effects?

Us mainly "declined" compared to its share in the total world economy. If 1/4 of its population is moving from a third world country to a little less poor, then % are bound to go down.

So its not the US going down, but other countries going up. And being "nr 1" is always a perspective.

All in all the future of US doesn't look as bleak as the future of many other. They have massive amounts of natural resources. B2B makes a valid point there.

Re: US decline- effects?

but LP if the US stays where it is & other nations rise up, isn't that the same as a US decline?

Buddugoliaeth neu Marwolaeth

Re: US decline- effects?

Only if you're into mercantilism, which pretty much disproved its effectiveness with European imperialism and both world wars.

Make Eyes Great Again!

The Great Eye is watching you... when there's nothing good on TV...

Re: US decline- effects?

one thing all of you are forgetting, and you have to ask yourself this.

WHY ARE WE BUYING THINGS FROM OTHER COUNTRIES IN THE FIRST PLACE???......  we have everything here.

think about it, anyone thats played AoE can understand this... our government has decided to run everyone else out of their natural resources, instead of using ours..... go figure why they are doing that?

don't touch me i am contagious........;p

Re: US decline- effects?

60% of the oil consumed by the US is from abroad. anyone wonder why the US has been so protective of the mid east?

Buddugoliaeth neu Marwolaeth

Re: US decline- effects?

well, i got news for you, texas is not out of oil, and neither is alaska, as a matter of fact in alaska we have a oil reserve that is bigger than the middle east ever had, and they stopped drilling or extracting oil in texas when the middle east started this crap with terrorism.
it solved two problems, one it gave the powers that be over there a reason to like us because we would buy their oil, and two within another 15 years they will be dry.... while we have 2 times more than what they ever had.

i guess no one ever considered that;
oil comes from dinosaurs
america had more dinosaurs living on it than any other country in the world.
i am more worried about the myan calender, than i am about running out of oil.
and just think.... what would happen if we became the only oil producing country???????   that would change things a LOT.
the middle east refuses to let anyone check their wells to see how much is left also, that should give you a clue.

don't touch me i am contagious........;p

Re: US decline- effects?

dude, get back to reality. why do you think the US has had the middle east on lockdown since the 1970s?

if the US did not have to import oil they would do it in a HEARTBEAT. why? because the economy and military of all nations relies on oil.

the US military has either 3 or 6 months worth of oil reserves (i forget which figure it is). in the 1970s the US imported 36% of its oil. today it imports 60%.

the oil reserve is basically designed so that if oil imports stop, they have several months of oil to allow their military to invade somewhere with oil to get the supply flowing again.

it really is crazy how the whole world is dependent on oil.

Buddugoliaeth neu Marwolaeth

Re: US decline- effects?

i guess you never understood the concept of misinformation, cause just like 95% of the US you believe everything the government tells you.... it laughable.
i bet you actually believe that GW Bush won the election honestly too. HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA OMFG my stomach hurt's from laughing so hard.

don't touch me i am contagious........;p

Re: US decline- effects?

so basically the US has a secret stash of oil that is bigger than the reserves in the mid east, but isnt telling one until after the mid east runs out?

Buddugoliaeth neu Marwolaeth

Re: US decline- effects?

well the one in alaska is known, but they keep back and forth politics going to keep it untapped, but we have know for years about texas...
they made a deal with the middle east to refine our oil to make them feel more secure in our friendship.
but yes they have a stash that they have greatly down played and from all press talking about congress denying it tells me it's big, and when they don't (either side) push the issue tells me it's a bipartisan plan to keep it untapped.... for now.
and i know some people (lots of people) in texas, and there are a few that work in the business that tell me that those wells are no where near tapped out

don't touch me i am contagious........;p

Re: US decline- effects?

well of course they are no where near tapped out now!

what about in 20 or 30 years time?

Buddugoliaeth neu Marwolaeth

Re: US decline- effects?

if you live in the US, you know that about 8-10 years ago they sent up like 5 shuttles in one year, and placed satellites around the world for the purpose of doing basically an MRI on the earth and thats how they found the oil deposit in alaska in the first place, but they also know where just about every natural resource deposit is on the earth, so oil is not the only thing they are holding back on, is what i am trying to say.

don't touch me i am contagious........;p

23

Re: US decline- effects?

Here read this highly credible and accurate source for discussion
http://wiki.answers.com/Q/What_percentage_of_us_oil_comes_from_the_middle_east


We're going out with a bang!
/launchNukes

Rehabilitated IC developer

Re: US decline- effects?

@emperorhez
"but LP if the US stays where it is & other nations rise up, isn't that the same as a US decline?"
Not exactly. The population in China/India was very poor, despite the good level of education in china.  Starting from zero with a massive amount of cheap labor, their growth is logical, despite all of their problems. Also, growth of other nations could have a positive effect on US economics.

If somebody learns to read or write, it a much bigger step forward for that person then when you learn another advanced differential equation. You still are however, much more advanced.

about the discussion between you and b2b,
He's wrong about the fact that US has more oil now as the middle ever had, esp if you calc ROEI. That does nothing to fact that his point is valid: US has a massive amount of resources while eg the middle east will run out. Its a logical strategic course to use foreign oil first.

That is why Europe is nervous about Energy supply and so called carbon emission. Spare me the environment story. Few politicians really cares about the environment.

Re: US decline- effects?

but LP I think you are downplaying the growth of other nations. it's not a case of Chinese people beginning to read. or indian people earns a few extra cents.

both countries- particularly China have made HUGE steps economically. have you seen the skyscrapers, the cellphones, the hydro-electric dams etc?

heck China is already workng on Carriers.

its not a case of the world getting slightly richer and therefore pushing US statistics down slightly.

its a case of China, India & Brazil etc making major economic advances.

within 25 years China is predicted to overtake the US economically while India is predicted to do so within 40 years.

Buddugoliaeth neu Marwolaeth