> Schniepel wrote:
> Who is sying US will Bomb Iran? Its more likely Israel who will.. if we can believe their minister of defense they are allready prepared for it.
Also no one knows how far Iranian tech regarding the nuke itself really is. some say they are almost done.. others say at least 10 more years.
if iran plans to nuke Isrel.. the shield in poland and alaska and california is useless anyways because its too far away.
I dont know who iran would nuke if not Israel or USA.
And btw.. all this nuclear tech in noko and iran comes from.. tadaaa.. pakiastan.. US big ally in the war against terror.
First, on the Israeli strike issue... Israel needs the approval of the US to do things. No, not officially. But Israel going it alone to attack Iran would devastate their relations with the US under an Obama administration since it would undermine Obama's peaceful efforts toward Iran.
In addition, you assume that Israel's attack will actually succeed. Hidden nuke programs can exist, and even if none exist, we would need to assume that the strike will go perfectly, and there aren't any facilities defended to a higher degree than what Israel knows about. If there's even a single program around, Iran could rally the people against Israel and really get a crash nuclear program going.
As for the missile locations... let's go one by one:
Alaska and California... you're right, they're not around to stop Iran from a direct missile strike. However, there's a second scenario that has always been a possibility. The story goes like this: A small Iranian boat disguised as a civilian fishing boat goes to one of the coastlines of the US. Once there, the ship launches a single missile (which Iran, by the way, has already designed and tested to be a success) straight into the sky. Once it gets high enough into space, it blows up a nuke, releasing an EMP across the US (it needs to get to space because the upper atmosphere serves as a conductor for the EMP blast). Game over for the US.
As for Poland... considering that France has probably been the most hardline opponent of Iran (they have an established policy that they will nuke Iran if there's a big terrorist attack in France), France could be a threat (spare the France jokes right now). The UK may also be a potential target, but the UK just might be beyond the reach of current Iranian missiles. A threat against Europe could be just enough to prevent them from further aggression against Iran, isolating the United States and Israel as lone crusaders against Islam.
And as for Pakistan, differentiate here: The nuclear knowledge was sold by a Pakistani scientist, not by the Pakistani government. You're just generalizing at this point.