Re: Iran to build 10 more nuke facilities

> Iran has political/military ties with Hezbollah, Hamas, Shiite Insurgents in
> Iraq, and they're starting to sell gear to the Taliban.  They have commerical
> ties wtih North Korea, Russia, China and Germany.

Hezbollah: Obvious.
Hamas: Obvious.
Shiit Insurgents in Iraq: Not so obvious; this is an accusation without fact.
Taliban: I highly doubt it; but again no facts.

North Korea: Obvious; Your enemies enemy shall be your friend, etc.
Russia: Well, duh. They are Neighbours.
China: Who doesn't?
Germany: Really? Its a possibility. No facts, but its definitely believable.

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Re: Iran to build 10 more nuke facilities

How long would it take to transport our troops in Afghanistan over to Iran?

Would Iraq join in on the hypothetical strike against Iran?

Brother Simon, Keeper of Ages, Defender of Faith.
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Re: Iran to build 10 more nuke facilities

> Simon wrote:

> How long would it take to transport our troops in Afghanistan over to Iran?

Would Iraq join in on the hypothetical strike against Iran?


Trick question:
It would take a matter of hours to get troops from any area of Afghanistan to the Iranian border, assuming use of helicopters.  Ground transport may take a bit longer, both due to the terrain and safety measures associated with ongoing resistance.

But here's the catch: the troops currently in Afghanistan wouldn't be the same troops equipped for invading Iran.  Much more heavy weaponry, such as tanks and artillery pieces, would need to be shipped from other regions into Afghanistan.



As for Iraq joining, that's probably unlikely:
1: The Iraqi military is still stabilizing its own nation.  The last thing it needs is to fight ANOTHER Iran-Iraq war.
2: The current government is largely Shiite, creating cultural ties between Iran and Iraq.

However, it's perfectly reasonable to envision a situation where the US mobilized attacks on Iran both from Afghanistan and Iraq, forcing Iran to divide its troops between two fronts for an easy military victory.

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Re: Iran to build 10 more nuke facilities

Easy military victory?

Please explain.

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Re: Iran to build 10 more nuke facilities

By "easy military victory," I only mean that the US could very easily gain initial control of Iranian territory in the direct combat aspect of the war.  A two-front assault would force Iran to divide its forces between the Iraqi and Afghani borders, regardless of what the US does.  Even an inactive troop presence at the Iraqi border during an assault from the Afghani border would require significant troop presence along the Iraqi border, wasting resources that would otherwise be used to fight the Afghani side of the conflict.


I'm in no way making any statement in regards to the occupation, or preventing asymmetrical attacks (most notably the mining of the Strait of Hormuz).  I'm only saying that, in the context of the direct combat phase of the war, two fronts would give the US a significant tactical advantage.

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Re: Iran to build 10 more nuke facilities

Without a larger picture that scenario
is just absurd...

I am sKoE
Do you know what the chain of command is here? It's the chain I go get and beat you with to show you who's in command.

Re: Iran to build 10 more nuke facilities

> Morbo the Annihilator wrote:

> Without a larger picture that scenario
is just absurd...



Because...?

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Re: Iran to build 10 more nuke facilities

You cant just say "my tanks will beat
their tanks".

You need to have context.


Why would the US attack Iran?
What would the greater plan be?
Under what circumstances would forces be gathered?
Who is in the war?


The US couldnt just attack Iran and expect no
counters. Saying that Iran would have two fronts
is completely irrelevant unless we know US strategy...

The only reason spreading their forces thin would be
to invade...

I am sKoE
Do you know what the chain of command is here? It's the chain I go get and beat you with to show you who's in command.

Re: Iran to build 10 more nuke facilities

Why control Iranian territory? Blow up what we don't like and let them sweep it up

The core joke of Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy is that of course no civilization would develop personal computers with instant remote database recovery, and then waste this technology to find good drinks.
Steve Jobs has ruined this joke.

Re: Iran to build 10 more nuke facilities

Either I missed the point or Morbo missed the point.

We were talking about a hypothetical attack on Iran to stop it from obtaining nuclear weapons. This answers the why.
After taking down the government it's likely we'll install a pro-West (pro-US) non-extremist government to stabilize the area. This answers the greater plan.
Under what circumstances would forces be gathered? I'm not sure I understand the question. The circumstance when a country goes to war?
Who is in the war? Whoever doesn't want to see Iran with nuclear weapons.

"The only reason spreading their forces thin would be
to invade..." That's kind of what we were talking about. But as Yell said, not for occupation.

Brother Simon, Keeper of Ages, Defender of Faith.
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Re: Iran to build 10 more nuke facilities

You couldn't setup a puppet government
like Iraq and Afghanistan. After the last
time the U.S. intervened Iranians wont
let that happen.

Blowing up nuclear reactors would provoke
Iran into a war. I dont see how a combat troop
build up help at all since the attack would be
air-based (either missile or aircraft).


I doubt the politics would be that simple Simon,
especially after the last failed WMD witch hunt.

I am sKoE
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Re: Iran to build 10 more nuke facilities

How is that even remotely related to the issue I was talking about: the initial military offensive?

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Re: Iran to build 10 more nuke facilities

Why the fudgetruck would you only discuss the initial military offensive?
Like i said, absurd.

And an air-based attack WILL BE the initial offensive. I highly doubt the
U.S. would, or even could, mount a significant enough campaign to take
Iran by ground forces.

I am sKoE
Do you know what the chain of command is here? It's the chain I go get and beat you with to show you who's in command.

39 (edited by Zarf BeebleBrix 03-Dec-2009 21:33:33)

Re: Iran to build 10 more nuke facilities

> Morbo the Annihilator wrote:

> Why the fudgetruck would you only discuss the initial military offensive?
Like i said, absurd.


1: No, you didn't say that.  Your actual statement was that we could not determine whether the initial offensive would be a success without an overall picture.
2: That's inherently a stupid statement.  The issue of discussion was how the initial offensive would be carried out, and its odds of success.  Your claim here is equivalent to me starting a discussion about global warming right now.  It may be important, and I may be able to relate it to the original topic, but it still is nothing more than a distraction from the initial question.




> And an air-based attack WILL BE the initial offensive. I highly doubt the
U.S. would, or even could, mount a significant enough campaign to take
Iran by ground forces.


Once again... because...?

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Re: Iran to build 10 more nuke facilities

> 1: No, you didn't say that.  Your actual statement was that we could not
> determine whether the initial offensive would be a success without an overall
> picture.

This is due to our differing opinions on what success is.

So:
1. Why would the U.S. send in ground troops to blow up a NUCLEAR FACILITY?
2. Why would the U.S. send in ground troops at all? Its not necessary.
3. You MUST look at the big picture. I don't care what scenario you are rambling about.
4. Why would the U.S. send in ground troops to take Iran?

The 4th one is repetitive but think about this:
- Iraq is mostly flat.
- Iran isn't.
- Iraqis hated their government, which quickly toppled.
- Iranians will side with a government they don't like, then the U.S. (see: history).
- Iran is bigger then Iraq and Afghanistan combined (land-mass).

> Once again... because...?

Because every land-based invasion by the U.S. in the past 50 years has been a total
and utter failure?

I am sKoE
Do you know what the chain of command is here? It's the chain I go get and beat you with to show you who's in command.

Re: Iran to build 10 more nuke facilities

""Blowing up nuclear reactors would provoke
Iran into a war. I dont see how a combat troop
build up help at all since the attack would be
air-based (either missile or aircraft).""

So what? What can they do they haven't done already in "peacetime"? Such as sell arms to our enemies and stage commando raids?

The core joke of Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy is that of course no civilization would develop personal computers with instant remote database recovery, and then waste this technology to find good drinks.
Steve Jobs has ruined this joke.

Re: Iran to build 10 more nuke facilities

> Morbo the Annihilator wrote:

> > 1: No, you didn't say that.  Your actual statement was that we could not
> determine whether the initial offensive would be a success without an overall
> picture.

> This is due to our differing opinions on what success is.


Nope.  I specified a distinction between success in a single operation (controlling territory) and success in the overall mission, clearly stating that I was only taking a stance on the effectiveness of the one mission, and not necessarily the other.  The only time when the two cross paths is when you decided to twist my words.


> So:
1. Why would the U.S. send in ground troops to blow up a NUCLEAR FACILITY?
2. Why would the U.S. send in ground troops at all? Its not necessary.
3. You MUST look at the big picture. I don't care what scenario you are rambling about.
4. Why would the U.S. send in ground troops to take Iran?

The 4th one is repetitive but think about this:
- Iraq is mostly flat.
- Iran isn't.
- Iraqis hated their government, which quickly toppled.
- Iranians will side with a government they don't like, then the U.S. (see: history).
- Iran is bigger then Iraq and Afghanistan combined (land-mass).


A: Discussion at hand was a hypothetical scenario.  We don't need to justify why it would happen, but only the question of if it would happen.
B: Any ground invasion could be justified by non-military justifications.
C: Now going one by one:
1: Because an air strike is more likely to blow radiation into urban areas than a more controlled disassembling of the facility?  Control the nuclear facility in order to gather evidence about other operations, such as possible import and export links for nuclear material?  Take your pick
2: First, the answers to #1 are applicable here.  In addition,
A: Air strikes have proven to be more prone to misfires, especially empirically proven in Afghanistan.  In addition, the results of air strike misfires are much more dangerous than ground troop misfires, having caused the bombing of a Chinese embassy in Serbia and extensive civilian damage.
B: Air strikes allow the Iranian government to retain control of information domestically, whether via radio messages, television, or newspapers.  Either way, the government is able to frame an air strike as some evil Western invasion, rallying public support for the government.  Ground forces allow us to exorcise the government from regions, vastly mitigating their propaganda capabilities.
3: Answered previously, and you ignored it.
4: Divvying this one up to answer your specific stuff:
Mountains: A: Urban regions are the most important regions to control.  Once you control these areas, it buys time to control mountainous areas.
B: It's called the 10th Mountain Brigade.  We've had troops specialized in mountain warfare for a long time.
Population support: A: Iran's population is increasingly anti-establishment.  Three reasons.
1: The last election shows there is an increasing buildup against Ahmadinejad.
2: Ahmadinejad managed to isolate many people last year through poor economic policies, such as the lack of a reserve fund from oil and excessive spending, which brought the nation to a recession as oil prices fell.  Significant protests, including division among the clerics, further entrenched this.
3: You have to give distinctions between populations.  Nowadays, the younger populations (the ones born during or after the '79 Revolution) are increasingly separated from the propaganda of the revolution, lacking the Shah's government as a frame of reference for anti-Americanism.  Multiple studies have shown that among this population, at least, the pro-Westernism is rising, due simply to the desire for economic integration with other nations.
B: Also go back to the propaganda argument: Whether by air strikes or ground offensive, the issue of anti-Americanism in Iran is inevitable.  The only way to reduce this risk is by being able to control the stream of propaganda in Iran.
Territory: Not all of the territory is actually used.  Urbanization and control of key regions is more important.  In addition, if there's significant public support, it means the Iranian people will more likely be able to take control of their government.  Unlike Iraq, Iran already has some establishments of a democratic society, so the transition would be simpler.





Answer this one question.  Yes or no:
If the US were to launch a ground offensive at Iran from both Afghanistan and Iran, would it be more likely to result in the control of territory than a ground offensive at Iran from just Afghanistan?

This is THE ONLY question I took a stand on, and thus the only issue I actually give a shit about.  Answer this yes or no, and make a specific reply of why.

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Re: Iran to build 10 more nuke facilities

> Nope.  I specified a distinction between success in a single operation (controlling
> territory) and success in the overall mission, clearly stating that I was only taking
> a stance on the effectiveness of the one mission, and not necessarily the other. 
> The only time when the two cross paths is when you decided to twist my words.

And

> A: Discussion at hand was a hypothetical scenario.  We don't need to justify why
> it would happen, but only the question of if it would happen.

Discussion at hand is if there is enough reasoning to launch a pre-emptive attack
on Iran. You went on about an initial ground invasion and i'm saying there is more
to a pre-emptive attack then an initial ground invasion.

I am sKoE
Do you know what the chain of command is here? It's the chain I go get and beat you with to show you who's in command.

Re: Iran to build 10 more nuke facilities

"How long would it take to transport our troops in Afghanistan over to Iran?

Would Iraq join in on the hypothetical strike against Iran?"

I changed the subject.

Brother Simon, Keeper of Ages, Defender of Faith.
~ ☭ Fokker

Re: Iran to build 10 more nuke facilities

Eliminate the ayatollahs. Problem solved.

Re: Iran to build 10 more nuke facilities

Possibly Justinian...
...Or it'd solitify their anti-US stance.

@Simon
Then a new thread is required tongue.

I am sKoE
Do you know what the chain of command is here? It's the chain I go get and beat you with to show you who's in command.

47 (edited by xeno syndicated 05-Dec-2009 01:19:24)

Re: Iran to build 10 more nuke facilities

"I changed the subject."

I don't think so, actually, as it could be made relevant.  Part of just war theory is whether or not a war would be successful.  Starting a war you could not win would not be a just war.

Thus if we can't figure out how the war could be won, then we would have to say there is still not enough justification for a pre-emptive strike.

Re: Iran to build 10 more nuke facilities

> Zarf BeebleBrix wrote:

>Answer this one question.  Yes or no:
If the US were to launch a ground offensive at Iran from both Afghanistan and Iran, would it be more likely to result in the control of territory than a ground offensive at Iran from just Afghanistan?

>This is THE ONLY question I took a stand on, and thus the only issue I actually give a shit about.  Answer this yes or no, and make a specific reply of why.

My answer is NO because it will cost more casualties rather than war in Iraq so they started using more missiles and aircrafts.

Thats why Israel and US doesn't like Russia to support S300 portable anti-air missile vehicle to Iran and they trying to provoke WW3 to make Russia no to give Iran those machine(trying to scare Russia) until now there is no full scale attack but only suicide bombers from Pakistan that was been paid by US or Israel Intelligence Ops to causes chaotic in south Iran but Iran managed to think about that and continue their nuclear programs till now.

US is using Osama as an icon of terrorist to invaded Muslim countries and support Israel civilization as US government was already controlled by elite Jews.

Re: Iran to build 10 more nuke facilities

I am just curious, why dont the US forces just deploy a shitload of bombs onto Iranian teritory?(dont mean nukes or anything, maybe napalm).

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Re: Iran to build 10 more nuke facilities

@RoaR

1) Because of the back-lash (war).
2) Because they can't afford it (economy).
3) Because the U.S. forces aren't robots (empathy).

I am sKoE
Do you know what the chain of command is here? It's the chain I go get and beat you with to show you who's in command.