Topic: N.Korea possibly planning 4th of July Fireworks

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1193941/North-Korea-plan-missile-launch-Hawaii-Independence-Day.html

Japan warns that North Korea may fire missile at U.S. on Independence Day

North Korea may launch a long-range ballistic missile towards Hawaii on American Independence Day, according to Japanese intelligence officials.

The missile, believed to be a Taepodong-2 with a range of up to 4,000 miles, would be launched in early July from the Dongchang-ni site on the north-western coast of the secretive country.

Intelligence analysts do not believe the device would be capable of hitting Hawaii's main islands, which are 4,500 miles from North Korea.
North Korea issued this image of a Taepodong-2 missile: It has a range of 4,000 miles

This is North Korea's Taepodong-2 missile which has a range of 4,000 miles. Intelligence analysts do not believe it would be capable of hitting Hawaii which is 4,500 miles away

It was announced today that the U.S. has deployed anti-missile defences around Hawaii in response to the threat.

North Korea test-fired a similar long-range missile on July 4 three years ago, but it failed seconds after liftoff.

U.S. Defence Secretary Robert Gates said the additional defences around Hawaii consist of a ground-based mobile missile system and a radar system nearby.

Together they could shoot an incoming missile in mid air.

'Without telegraphing what we will do, I would just say... we are in a good position, should it become necessary, to protect Americans and American territory,' Gates said today.

A new missile launch - though not expected to reach U.S. territory - would be a brazen slap in the face of the international community, which punished North Korea with new U.N. sanctions for conducting a second nuclear test on May 25 in defiance of a U.N. ban.

North Korea spurned the U.N. Security Council resolution with threats of war and pledges to expand its nuclear bomb-making program.
Enlarge 

North Korean leader Kim Jong Il inspecting the command of the 7th Infantry Division of the North Korean Peoples Army

The Security Council resolution calls on all 192 U.N. member states to inspect vessels on the high seas - with the owner country's approval - if they believe the cargo contains banned weapons.

In what would be the first test case for the sanctions, the U.S. military has begun tracking a North Korean-flagged ship, Kang Nam, which left a port in North Korea on Wednesday, two U.S. officials said.

The ship, which may be carrying illicit weapons, was in the Pacific Ocean off the coast of China on today, the officials said on condition of anonymity because they were discussing intelligence.

It was uncertain what the Kang Nam was carrying, but it has been involved in weapons proliferation before, one of the officials said.

Details of the missile launch came from the Japan's best-selling newspaper, Yomiuri Shimbun.

Both Japanese intelligence and U.S. reconnaissance satellites have collated information pointing to the launch, according to the report.
Enlarge   North-Korea.jpg

A missile fired from North Korea would have to travel 4,500 miles before it reached the U.S. state of Hawaii

It is understood the communist state is likely to fire the missile between July 4 and 8.

A launch on July 4 would coincide with Independence Day in the States.It would also be the 15th anniversary of North Korean president Kim Il-Sung's death.

Officials had initially believed that North Korea might attempt to launch a similar device towards either Japan's Okinawa island, Guam or Hawaii.

But the ministry concluded launches toward Okinawa or Guam were 'extremely unlikely' because the first-stage booster could drop into waters off China, agitating Beijing, or hit western Japanese territory.

If the missile were fired in the direction of Hawaii, the booster could drop in the Sea of Japan.

News of the launch would put 'enormous military pressure on the United States,' the Yomiuri said, citing the ministry report.

A spokesman for the Japanese Defense Ministry declined to comment on the report.

South Korea's Defense Ministry and the National Intelligence Service - the country's main spy agency - said they could not confirm it.
Hawaii

It was announced today that the U.S. has deployed anti-missile defences around Hawaii in response to the threat.

Tension on the divided Korean peninsula has risen markedly since the North, led by Kim Jong-il, conducted two nuclear tests this year in defiance of repeated international warnings

The first rocket, fired in April,  was widely seen as a disguised long-range missile test. A second launch came on May 25.

U.S. satellite intelligence has shown that a missile launch pad had been erected at Dongchang-ri on North Korea's north-west coast.

General James Cartwright, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said it would take at least three to five years for North Korea to pose a real threat to the U.S. west coast.

The UN Security Council last week authorised member states to inspect North Korean sea, air and land cargo, requiring them to seize and destroy goods shipped that violate the sanctions against arms export.

On Saturday, in response to this declaration Pyongyang said it would bolster its nuclear programs and threatened war.

Growing tensions come as arms-watchdog the International Crisis Group (ICG) claimed North Korea has several thousand tonnes of chemical weapons it could mount on missiles.

The report from the non-government organisation said they believed the North's army have about 2,500 to 5,000 tonnes of chemical weapons which include mustard gas, sarin and other deadly nerve agents.

ICG also also warned South Korea may become a target.

'If there is an escalation of conflict and if military hostilities break out, there is a risk that they could be used. In conventional terms, North Korea is weak and they feel they might have to resort to using those,' said Daniel Pinkston, the ICG's representative in Seoul.

The North has been working on chemical weapons for decades and can deliver them through long-range artillery directed on Seoul which is home to about half of South Korea's 49 million people and via missiles that could hit all of the country.

Re: N.Korea possibly planning 4th of July Fireworks

Why are asians so obsessed with Hawaii
Didn

The inmates are running the asylum

Re: N.Korea possibly planning 4th of July Fireworks

Because it's the only part of America worth having?

Re: N.Korea possibly planning 4th of July Fireworks

lmao

Morbo: Morbo can't understand his teleprompter. He forgot how you say that letter that looks like a man with a hat.
Linda: It's a 't'. It goes "tuh".
Morbo: Hello, little man. I will destroy you!!

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Re: N.Korea possibly planning 4th of July Fireworks

Japanese intelligence doesn't know shite.

it sounds like Iraq & WMD deployed in 45mins.

why would N Korea provoke the worlds only superpower by firing a ballistic missile at it?

N Korea want their deterrence, nothing more.

Buddugoliaeth neu Marwolaeth

Re: N.Korea possibly planning 4th of July Fireworks

Possibly because the US response has pretty much been to lobby for tougher and tougher sanctions... not much else.  North Korea is already more isolated from the world than most tribal communities, so newer sanctions are sort of expected.  Thus, it means short of military threats, there is very little the US can do to North Korea to harm them.  And the US is already in Iraq and Afghanistan, so an invasion of NK by the US seems unlikely.

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Re: N.Korea possibly planning 4th of July Fireworks

> Zarf BeebleBrix wrote:

> Possibly because the US response has pretty much been to lobby for tougher and tougher sanctions... not much else.  North Korea is already more isolated from the world than most tribal communities, so newer sanctions are sort of expected.  Thus, it means short of military threats, there is very little the US can do to North Korea to harm them.  And the US is already in Iraq and Afghanistan, so an invasion of NK by the US seems unlikely.>

We could always just use our air force and whipe them out.

Re: N.Korea possibly planning 4th of July Fireworks

I'm not saying there aren't military options possible.  The US could also use a dozen strategic nukes to turn the country into a parking lot.  I'm arguing both political capital and economics reduce the likelihood of a US retaliation.

Let's take your air strike example.
1: It expends resources of key air power that is currently used in Iraq and Afghanistan.
2: Replacing lost missiles, lost aircraft, and hazard pay increases for wartime soldiers creates a short term financial burden on the US government.
3: An anti-war candidate lobbying for a preemptive war against North Korea would be extremely damaging politically.
4: Best case scenario, there would be disruption of trade with a key trade partner, South Korea.  Worst case scenario, South Korea could be devastated in the conflict.
5: Didn't Vietnam show you that air power is useless without ground support?  Unless you can take control of the weakened territory, structures can be rebuilt, borders can be fortified again, and supply lines can be redrawn.
6: You can't secretly mobilize large-scale forces.  The US wouldn't be able to hide its military movements from the Press, let alone North Korea.  It's just impossible for us to say, "Oh, by the way, remember that aircraft carrier we said yesterday was parked in the Persian Gulf?  April fools!  It's actually just short of North Korea!  Just got there, and now we're gonna blow up the place!  GG, Kim!"

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Re: N.Korea possibly planning 4th of July Fireworks

The japanese could do it without US support.

The inmates are running the asylum

Re: N.Korea possibly planning 4th of July Fireworks

Um... it's unconstitutional for the Japanese to do it.  They can't have an offensive military, remember?

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Re: N.Korea possibly planning 4th of July Fireworks

Yeah,but paper doesn

The inmates are running the asylum

Re: N.Korea possibly planning 4th of July Fireworks

Julius just got lost.

Anyone would be stupid to think NK would fire a missile at Hawaii.
Japan is becoming the new Isreal.

13 (edited by avogadro 03-Jul-2009 17:15:24)

Re: N.Korea possibly planning 4th of July Fireworks

"1: It expends resources of key air power that is currently used in Iraq and Afghanistan."

no, we have air and sea power that can bombard that is already within range to do so.

"2: Replacing lost missiles, lost aircraft, and hazard pay increases for wartime soldiers creates a short term financial burden on the US government."

in a country with the economy of the US, that financial burden for a bombardment is minimal. the financial burden to North Korea to being a victim of the bardment would be much more significant.

"3: An anti-war candidate lobbying for a preemptive war against North Korea would be extremely damaging politically."

not a preemptive war, a bombardment. no more damaging then Clinton bombing Iraq; which wasnt damaging at all.

"4: Best case scenario, there would be disruption of trade with a key trade partner, South Korea.  Worst case scenario, South Korea could be devastated in the conflict."

best case scenario, and most likely scenario, no disruption with South Korea. If North Korea did invade South Korea or attack them, because of an american bombardment, the US would have an international coalition against North Korea.

"5: Didn't Vietnam show you that air power is useless without ground support?  Unless you can take control of the weakened territory, structures can be rebuilt, borders can be fortified again, and supply lines can be redrawn."

in a war, absolutely its useless. but financially, its devastating to the country being bombed. you think that the costs of the bombardment id devastating for the US, with its huge economy, and not being the target of the bombardment, with North Korea's tiny economy, its 100 times worse for them. gonna have a hard time affording nuclear research when they're spending all their resources repairing the damage the bombardment has done.

"6: You can't secretly mobilize large-scale forces.  The US wouldn't be able to hide its military movements from the Press, let alone North Korea.  It's just impossible for us to say, "Oh, by the way, remember that aircraft carrier we said yesterday was parked in the Persian Gulf?  April fools!  It's actually just short of North Korea!  Just got there, and now we're gonna blow up the place!  GG, Kim!"

the US already has a carrier group in the region.... so you fail once again.

naval bomardment would be better imo. i bet North Korea has decent anti-aircraft, and naval bombardment would elimninate chance of POW's, which North Korea could use as bargaining chips.

Re: N.Korea possibly planning 4th of July Fireworks

anyone remember Pearl Harbor?

the Americans wont fight?

lol thats BS.

Americans are the mostly likely to retaliate.

the only thing the N Koreans would achieve by attacking the USA is bringing about their own destruction. and the world wont bat an eyelid as they'll all rightly side with America.

Buddugoliaeth neu Marwolaeth

Re: N.Korea possibly planning 4th of July Fireworks

> EmperorHez wrote:

> anyone remember Pearl Harbor?

the Americans wont fight?

lol thats BS.

Americans are the mostly likely to retaliate.

the only thing the N Koreans would achieve by attacking the USA is bringing about their own destruction. and the world wont bat an eyelid as they'll all rightly side with America.






I'm not saying we wouldn't respond to a missile HITTING the US.  Nobody is arguing that North Korea is going to go and nuke Hawaii.  Read the article.  It says they're going to launch a missile in the direction of Hawaii, but that the missile won't have the range to get to Hawaii.  The whole story changes if that missile were to actually result in the death of even one American.

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Re: N.Korea possibly planning 4th of July Fireworks

yeah but why would N Korea which is like 5' 0" tall take a swing at the USA which is like 6' 5" ?

Buddugoliaeth neu Marwolaeth

Re: N.Korea possibly planning 4th of July Fireworks

I'm going to fire a candle at my garden. Casualties will be minimal but it provides a clear sign.

Re: N.Korea possibly planning 4th of July Fireworks

a your neighbour turns your house into a parking lot in retaliation

Buddugoliaeth neu Marwolaeth

Re: N.Korea possibly planning 4th of July Fireworks

> yeah but why would N Korea which is like 5' 0" tall take a swing at the USA which is like 6' 5" ?

Ball sack shot.

The U.S. falls to its knees, only to be kicked in the head by North Korea.

Morbo: Morbo can't understand his teleprompter. He forgot how you say that letter that looks like a man with a hat.
Linda: It's a 't'. It goes "tuh".
Morbo: Hello, little man. I will destroy you!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cpP7b2lUxVE

Re: N.Korea possibly planning 4th of July Fireworks

If they fire a missle at the US and miss the official response should be: "Ahahahahahahahaha!".

That would be more effecting than further sanctions.

Re: N.Korea possibly planning 4th of July Fireworks

North Korea has taken half a dozen swings at the US, both figurative and literal.
A: A nuclear test on the 4th of July, three years ago, shortly after new threats were released against thme.
B: The missile test, after consistent demands to not conduct the tests, and shortly after a new round of sanctions following the previous sanctions that followed the nuclear test.
C: The second nuclear test.
D: Screwing the US on the no-nuke treaty the US originally agreed to.
E: Reversing the second disarmament agreement negotiated during Bush Jr.
F: Unending threats, including threatening to destroy the US and CONSTANT threats of invading South Korea, including the massive mobilization at the border.
G: Sales of nuclear material and missiles across the world, including intercepted material in Libya and Syria, in blatant disregard for the fact that the US has a declared attribution policy with regard to North Korean nuclear material (If North Korea assists proliferation outside its borders, they are responsible for the results of that proliferation).


That means two things:

1: Empirically, the US won't respond militarily to actions that don't cause collateral damage to the US.
2: North Korea empirically is willing to saber-rattle, and play a good deal of brinksmanship, against the US.



There's a simple reason as to why North Korea would take a swing at the US: They think we'll crack.  Look, the US already has military commitments outside the Korean Peninsula, and possibly another flare-up in Iran.  Each troop commitment reduces US resources to respond to North Korea, whether it be manpower, military hardware, or simply economic power.

The US has already negotiated two different agreements with North Korea, while at the same time, North Korea, has been trying its hardest to piss us off.  The result?  They get a better deal each time.


Consider it like a hostage situation.  A dozen terrorists holding 100 prisoners are almost guaranteed to get their asses kicked if they fought against the police.  However, if they don't retain a tough stance against the police, the terrorists look like wimps, and the prisoners aren't considered to be in danger immediate enough to warrant serious concessions in negotiation.  Thus, the terrorists need to engage in brinkmanship: The threat to cross a line, without actually crossing the line.

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Re: N.Korea possibly planning 4th of July Fireworks

They fired some old Scuds

The inmates are running the asylum

Re: N.Korea possibly planning 4th of July Fireworks

Maybe that was the plan.  Build up this giant hype about North Korea launching a missile six feet away from Hawaii.  Then when we're all ready to nuke them if they launch a long range missile, they instead launch a couple crappy Scuds into the water.  The world says, "okay, that wasn't as bad as we expected," and walks away.

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24 (edited by esa 04-Jul-2009 09:29:19)

Re: N.Korea possibly planning 4th of July Fireworks

Obama called Kim one the phone,saying if they launch their missile at Hawaii they can celebrate their own independence day next july 4.

The inmates are running the asylum

Re: N.Korea possibly planning 4th of July Fireworks

This is all a load of hot air.

N korea is testing a missile.

Its firing it into the ocean, (nowhere near the US)

the direction happens to be towards hawaii

Look at a Map. It would be almost impossible for N.korea to fire a missile into the ocean thats not towards hawaii.