Topic: Iranian Election Watch
http://edition.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/meast/06/10/iran.election.rallies/
A little note: before the election, the Ayatollahs normally throw out many of the more moderate candidates in favor of candidates that will be more in line with their views. In this case, however, we see clear indications that moderate leaders have been allowed to come into office, namely Moussavi. This means that the Ayatollahs have turned against Ahmadinejad, as they're pretty much taking drastic measures to get him out of office by allowing a moderate to come into office.
I think this is a possibility for a huge shake-up. Moussavi wants to reform the government to allow for more international trade. Since the primary constraint on that is the international sanctions, Moussavi would be forced to negotiate on the nuclear issue in order to open up trade. Unlike Ahmadinejad, who ran on a platform of "screw you America," Moussavi is banking his political ambitions on the promise of getting international trade to happen. Huge step forward.
Now, I know what's going to come up next: "But the President doesn't have any power! It's all in the Ayatollah's hands!" You're right. However, the Ayatollahs had the ability to veto Moussavi, no questions asked, if they thought he was too moderate. They didn't. He's still in the running. This means there's been a fundamental shift in the Ayatollah's viewpoints, most likely due to Ahmadinejad's royally pitiful screw-ups on the economy*.
Could this be it? A peaceful resolution to the nuclear issue, without the need for any bloodshed?
*In case you don't know, here's the economy issue: When oil prices were reaching $80, $90, and $100 per barrel, Iran's economy was flourishing. Now, normally, oil countries have what's called an Oil Stabilization Fund, a fund for the government to store excess revenue from oil, so that when prices fall, the government can fall back and pull money out of the fund. Normally, this fund is managed by a small commission that decides whether withdrawals from the account can be deemed "emergency spending" to justify the withdrawal. Last year, Ahmadinejad shut down the commission, and allowed himself to be the final verdict on whether spending was "emergency spending." In the process, he used the excess revenues for social programs and various subsidies, including gas and food. Anyway, fast forward to November last year, when oil prices dropped to $55 per barrel. The Iranian government opened up their OSF to see how much was there, and the cupboard was bare.
In order to fight the problem, Ahmadinejad attempted to raise taxes by creating a 3% sales tax. In response, the bazaars in Tehran, the primary financial sector in the country, literally went on strike, protesting Ahmadinejad's handling of the economy. The tax increase was delayed shortly afterwards.
The Great Eye is watching you... when there's nothing good on TV...
