Phssthpok: "They have been saying we are going to hit peak oil soon for 50 years. It will happen someday but these assholes don't know when and nobody calls them on it when they are wrong and they have predicted it every single year."
The problem with peak oil is its application to the real world. On paper, it's a beautiful mathematical formula, and the plots on the graph are all very convincing. Yet it does not account for the /unknowns/. It assumes constant production at a constant rate as far into the future as they intend to predict, and oil production simply does not follow such a curve. Indeed, individual oil fields do not even adhere to the curve. In fact, the production of /any/ limited resource never yields such a curve. There are many factors at stake which the peak oil theorists do not account for; such as the geopolitical, or changes in the supply of oil, or its demand, or the fact that field outputs change at a variable rate.
It's the perfect example of what modern day economists attempt to do when making policy recommendations on the economy. They /think/ they have it all figured out, with their amateur formulaes and questionable research, but they simply do not understand the nature of chaotic systems, to include economies. Meteorologists will readily admit the impossibility of predicting weather. You can understand the mechanics of it, how weather /works/, but you can't /predict/ it with any degree of accuracy beyond a few days. There are too many variables -- known and unknown -- to consider.
Perhaps mainstream economics should include a primer on nonlinear dynamics.
Caution Wake Turbulence