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Re: Nato gathers to discuss georgia.

> Justinian I wrote:

> Putin has more options because:

1. He controls much of Europe's access to oil.
2. The US forces do not have force potential because they are entangled in two countries.
3. Russia has the largest arsenal of nuclear weapons.

The fact is is that Russia is in a position where challenging it would be costly. If Europe challenged it, their oil prices would skyrocket. If the US decided to challenge it, well they are entangled in Iraq and Afghanistan and then there's the fact of nuclear weapons. Moreover, Russia is now a great oil producing country, and oil prices could rise if its economy were damaged. And that is also why the Europeans want nothing to do with anything real done against Russia.


Right.  Russian forces are in control of a small Georgian port, Poti, on Georgia's west coast.  As well as access routes such as roads and rail lines into it.  And it's pretty important for oil tankers coming from the Black Sea.  I think the real reason Russia attacked Georgia is to try and gain control of that pipeline the Georgians made to bypass Russia, which acts as the only main oil flow out of the Black Sea which doesn't pass under Russian influence.

"Oh Kent, anyone can make up statistics to support their point of view.  92% of people know that"

Homer Simpson

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Re: Nato gathers to discuss georgia.

"how do we break the dependancy on other countries

if you don't have natural resources, you don't have natural resources."

you can:
1) find alternatives, which is something actively in progress
2) mass migrate to russia's oil fields and declare independence from russia when your group of people is the majority in whatever region.

Brother Simon, Keeper of Ages, Defender of Faith.
~ ☭ Fokker

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Re: Nato gathers to discuss georgia.

There are a few points that have caught my attention, points that nobody has addressed properly:

America "Russia has no authority or rights beyond its borders."
Russia "If you can then we can"

As long as America can be seen to be stomping accross the Middle East and throwing its shadow over places like Iran and North Korea any complaint anyone makes sounds hypocritical. Wether such complaints are hypocritical in reality is irrelevant.


America "Do as I say or I'll hurt you"
Russia "With what?"
A "Our mighty army"
R "You'll have to pull them out of Iraq first"
A "We don't need to, even a fraction of our army could crush all of yours"
R "Right, and I'm sure your nations mothers and fathers will love you for intentionally sending their kids on a suicide mission up the Neva. That is of course if we don't just nuke them the second we see them coming."
A "Then we'll just nuke you"
R "With the warheads you downgraded to 5 megatons, for the sake of the environment?"
A "Yup, less radiation and fallout so we can come in to finish the job, cut you up"
R "You do know our missiles come with 10 megaton warheads as standard, right? You do know we have at least twice the amount of missiles you have, right? You do know what that will do to your country, right?"
A "You'll be in the same boat"
R "No we won't, your missiles are small and clean, leaving miimal radiation. With our vast supply of minerals, ores and oil we'll be back on our feet so fast we'll be sending aid to the glowing leper colony that your country has become. Face it, we play your game better than you do, in spite of your economic superiority."
A "Oh yeah, well Jesus hates you!"

wink

"So, it's defeat for you, is it? Someday I must meet a similar fate..."

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Re: Nato gathers to discuss georgia.

"> >>Actually, the US is being a bully by extending its political presence at the expense of Russia. <<
<<Russia has no rights beyond its borders. None.>>

That is irrelevant. What matters in international politics is not rights, but power."

Yeah.  And we have the power.


"<< So what?>>
<<I keep saying, don't take anything. Bomb it! Blow it up! Render all Siberia one gawdawful forest fire!>>
<<I'll take them.>>
Wow Yell, you show your true colors. You aren't committed to power principles. You outright are committed to morals and ideology, so much that you are willing cause catastrophe.
Okay whatever Mr. Ideologue. I don't like the costs. I'm committed to power principles and pragmatism."

Then do it my way.  Or else.

"<<That depends.  You know what they define as cooperation is going to cost us more and more and more.>>
Since when is free trade costly?"

When it means Georgia has free trade in energy = doesn't have to join Russia's power stranglehold on Europe = encroachment on Russian power.

"<<What is stupid is seeking a balance of power.  It inevitably leads to somebody shoving too hard.  Always.>>
And the alternative in your mind is... overt aggression... Spartan post-Peloponnesian style?"

The overt aggression here is by Russia.   Just as Bismarck was a peaceable guy, IF he got the Kiel Canal area from Denmark and IF he broke France and IF Russia didn't formally side with France.   Your "sphere of influence/balance of power" system means Russia can start all the wars it wants and we look the other way. But if you looked at history, NO power that adopted that plan did not at some point renounce war with the other Great Powers.  All such aggressors are aware the democracies might quit if a war goes badly wrong.  It is just a matter of a war going right.  And that gets too tempting.  It is simple PRAGMATISM that you don't pretend an inferior warmonger is your equal.

The core joke of Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy is that of course no civilization would develop personal computers with instant remote database recovery, and then waste this technology to find good drinks.
Steve Jobs has ruined this joke.

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Re: Nato gathers to discuss georgia.

Actually Fokker it would mean Russia would be colonized by new cities 10,000 strong of Han Chinese.  Say, about 10,000 of them.

The core joke of Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy is that of course no civilization would develop personal computers with instant remote database recovery, and then waste this technology to find good drinks.
Steve Jobs has ruined this joke.

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Re: Nato gathers to discuss georgia.

But yeah... the pipeline could and would have been built if not for the idiot Georgian president giving Russia the excuse.  They would have economically hurt Georgia but probably wouldn't have been bold enough to launch an all out attack.  Europe would have ti's secondary energy supply and then would have been more independent and then could stand up to Russia [economically at least] with limited fear.  But now because Georgia started this, Russia used it's "excuse" and just watch where the pipeline goes.  And yepper u got it Russia's influence grows.

I'm going to be nicer promise

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Re: Nato gathers to discuss georgia.

There is unconfirmed reports US spies and US spy satellites showed significant evidence of a planned Russian invasion anyways, thus how Russia, with so few units for such a huge border, was able to get so much in at once as to overwhelm the established defenses and even the disadvantage of being attacked first.

Which would be why Georgia attacked, to try to stop the invasion first.

Everything bad in the economy is now Obama's fault. Every job lost, all the debt, all the lost retirement funds. All Obama. Are you happy now? We all get to blame Obama!
Kemp currently not being responded to until he makes CONCISE posts.
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Re: Nato gathers to discuss georgia.

I find the possible Russian build up irrelevant. If Georgia had this information then it would be likely that they present this to NATO or at least seek some sort of international recognition first.

Since Georgia didn't say they had this information (not that I've seen anyway) when they attacked S. Ossetia, it's unlikely our unconfirmed reports ever reached the Georgians. Again, making the Russian build up irrelevant.

Brother Simon, Keeper of Ages, Defender of Faith.
~ &#9773; Fokker

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84 Reply by Freelancer (edited by Freelancer 21-Aug-2008 19:46:04)

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Re: Nato gathers to discuss georgia.

"There is unconfirmed reports US spies and US spy satellites showed significant evidence of a planned Russian invasion anyways, thus how Russia, with so few units for such a huge border, was able to get so much in at once as to overwhelm the established defenses and even the disadvantage of being attacked first.

Which would be why Georgia attacked, to try to stop the invasion first."

i think that what you say is not true.. but then again if it was they were stupid like hell.. They could have just said to NATO "Hey Russian army is having a party near our borders"

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Re: Nato gathers to discuss georgia.

I doubt we saw anything.  Russia didn't send more than two divisions into Georgia anyhow.

The core joke of Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy is that of course no civilization would develop personal computers with instant remote database recovery, and then waste this technology to find good drinks.
Steve Jobs has ruined this joke.

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Re: Nato gathers to discuss georgia.

toEinstein: russia was conducting military exercises in north ossetia near georgian borders hence the swiftness

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Re: Nato gathers to discuss georgia.

i think north korea should be allowed to place long range missiles in cuba

<@Nolio> Ilu was the man back in the day,he even made monkeywrench and arganon look good for half a round =p
<@iluvatar> it is my grandest achievement
<@Nolio> *half a round  =p
<@iluvatar> still
* Final_Doom is now known as Thanks_Iluvatar

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Re: Nato gathers to discuss georgia.

> Little Paul wrote:

> The US wants to freeze the nato corporation with russia as a sanction for the russian military action. But countries like france, germany, turkey, greece don't want to break connections because russia is to important for energy supply.

Personally, I hold them responsible to become dependant in the first place. If they want to become less independant, they need to make a stand over georgia wich is important for energy security. Also they need a national back-up plan in case they really try to blackmail us.
_________________________________________________________________________
"Don't bite the hand that feeds you"?
I hate that philosophy and NEVER apply it WHEN i notice that they're in the wrong.
(of course, people and organizations have hated me for this, and individuals have privately been in agreement with me almost all the time...cowards)

"I will fight for your right to be wrong!" << S.G. Tallentyre
"I am a flexible centrist: not stuck on right-wing, not stuck on left-wing, and not stuck on centre...and I don't flip-flop either" <<< me tongue
Fighting for peace is like stopping the raping of a virgin.

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Re: Nato gathers to discuss georgia.

> Freelancer wrote:

> "There is unconfirmed reports US spies and US spy satellites showed significant evidence of a planned Russian invasion anyways, thus how Russia, with so few units for such a huge border, was able to get so much in at once as to overwhelm the established defenses and even the disadvantage of being attacked first.

Which would be why Georgia attacked, to try to stop the invasion first."

i think that what you say is not true.. but then again if it was they were stupid like hell.. They could have just said to NATO "Hey Russian army is having a party near our borders"
_____________________________________________________
If this is true
...then maybe they didn't want to go to NATO because they didn't trust them and they didn't go to the USA cuz they didn't want to become subservient to them?

"I will fight for your right to be wrong!" << S.G. Tallentyre
"I am a flexible centrist: not stuck on right-wing, not stuck on left-wing, and not stuck on centre...and I don't flip-flop either" <<< me tongue
Fighting for peace is like stopping the raping of a virgin.

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Re: Nato gathers to discuss georgia.

> &#9773; Fokker wrote:

> There are a few points that have caught my attention, points that nobody has addressed properly:

America "Russia has no authority or rights beyond its borders."
Russia "If you can then we can"

As long as America can be seen to be stomping accross the Middle East and throwing its shadow over places like Iran and North Korea any complaint anyone makes sounds hypocritical. Wether such complaints are hypocritical in reality is irrelevant.


America "Do as I say or I'll hurt you"
Russia "With what?"
A "Our mighty army"
R "You'll have to pull them out of Iraq first"
A "We don't need to, even a fraction of our army could crush all of yours"
R "Right, and I'm sure your nations mothers and fathers will love you for intentionally sending their kids on a suicide mission up the Neva. That is of course if we don't just nuke them the second we see them coming."
A "Then we'll just nuke you"
R "With the warheads you downgraded to 5 megatons, for the sake of the environment?"
A "Yup, less radiation and fallout so we can come in to finish the job, cut you up"
R "You do know our missiles come with 10 megaton warheads as standard, right? You do know we have at least twice the amount of missiles you have, right? You do know what that will do to your country, right?"
A "You'll be in the same boat"
R "No we won't, your missiles are small and clean, leaving miimal radiation. With our vast supply of minerals, ores and oil we'll be back on our feet so fast we'll be sending aid to the glowing leper colony that your country has become. Face it, we play your game better than you do, in spite of your economic superiority."
A "Oh yeah, well Jesus hates you!"

wink
_________________________________________
Excellently put! big_smile

"I will fight for your right to be wrong!" << S.G. Tallentyre
"I am a flexible centrist: not stuck on right-wing, not stuck on left-wing, and not stuck on centre...and I don't flip-flop either" <<< me tongue
Fighting for peace is like stopping the raping of a virgin.

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Re: Nato gathers to discuss georgia.

"how do we break the dependancy on other countries, if you don't have natural resources, you don't have natural resources."
By becomming less dependant on those resources in combination with having multiple offers.

@fokker:
USA has enough to destroy the ROW and itself as has russia. As I said before:
1.) submarines
2.) Destroying one powerblock is enough to make the world inhabitable.

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Re: Nato gathers to discuss georgia.

The cold war almost seems bliss to me. At least there was a clear world order back then tongue

God: Behold ye angels, I have created the ass.. Throughout the ages to come men and women shall grab hold of these and shout my name...

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93 Reply by The Yell (edited by TheYell 22-Aug-2008 16:05:11)

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Re: Nato gathers to discuss georgia.

"Russia has roughly 27 larger refineries and 40 small capacity facilities (less than 3,700 bpy). Russia still operates twelve 1st generation refineries of WWII vintage and nine 2nd generation refineries (built from 1946-1960) refine 40% of the total 2.31 bbpy (Larsson 37)."  RUSSIA: Survey of Russian Energy Infrastructure" by John Margeson, January 25, 2008.
http://www.analyst-network.com/article.php?art_id=1634

Do the math, 6 refineries built since 1960 process nearly 60% of Russian oil (the 40 smaller facilites would not total more than 148,000 barrels per year out of 2.31 billion barrels per year; of the 27 major refineries, 21 produce only 40% of output)   A conventional arms strike against just six targets thus would cripple the Russian economy and warmaking capability.

The B-52H can carry 20 AGM-84C Conventional Air-Launched Cruise Missles, a high-subsonic missle with range of over 500 miles and a 3,000-lb high explosive warhead.  Assuming an unprecedented 50% failure/interception rate, 10 3,000-lb warheads exploding within an oil refinery are gonna wreck that bitch.

I believe the destruction of at least 33% of Russian oil production in a sneak attack would be almost a certainty, should it be attempted.   A tantalizing prospect...

The core joke of Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy is that of course no civilization would develop personal computers with instant remote database recovery, and then waste this technology to find good drinks.
Steve Jobs has ruined this joke.

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Re: Nato gathers to discuss georgia.

Yes, cause those large infrastructural works mean they don't have supplies for months tongue

God: Behold ye angels, I have created the ass.. Throughout the ages to come men and women shall grab hold of these and shout my name...

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Re: Nato gathers to discuss georgia.

How many months?  Versus, how long to restore production?  One thing's certain, they wont' be exporting their reserves, and there goes their economy.  Unless they wanna sell nukes.

The core joke of Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy is that of course no civilization would develop personal computers with instant remote database recovery, and then waste this technology to find good drinks.
Steve Jobs has ruined this joke.

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Re: Nato gathers to discuss georgia.

"Unless they wanna sell nukes."

which can probably fetch high prices

Brother Simon, Keeper of Ages, Defender of Faith.
~ &#9773; Fokker

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