Ok the success of a spell/operation does not depend on asingle factor.
You have to consider the grade of the op, the number of agents/wizzards u use, the ratio NW/number of agents or wizzs of yours compared to your opponent (normaally a bigger target has a lower proportion because he has to build a shitload of agents/wizzs to make a good defense, so if you are small with no other fleet than agents or wizzs your chances will be higher). Your race bonus will be considered also (partaxian power) and finally theres 1 out of 7 chances of a random fail.

The grade of ops/spells is as follows:

Spells grade1 (easy) -> vision, space amazemen, find target planets, reduce food
Spells grade2 ->  destroy iron, no fear, warcry, destroy scientists
Spells grade 3 -> estorms, octarine hurricane, create portal force field
Spells grade 4 -> hypno

Ops grade1 -> spy on target, check relations, plant false info
Ops grade2 -> kill scientists, planet infraestructure, investigate portal
Ops grade3 -> infiltration, sabotage portal
Ops grade4 -> plant nukes, destroy cash

Not sure i am forgetting some op, its been a while since i aint playing, but hope it helps

RulerBrewer: The code is secret because this is Stefan's game (he is the mythical creator of the game, though none have seen him for years now and most doubt his existence at all), thus he gets to decide what you can see of his stuff/IP.

The second reason is that if the calculations were visible/known then people could easily know if they will succeed on an offensive op before doing it, which would ruin some of the suspense of the game. The idea is that you work with your family and learn the game by doing, not reading. I understand that this is not everyone's cup of tea, but it did keep the game going during it's heyday. One thing I will tell you for free, self-ops (ops/spells you perform on yourself) require about 10% of your nw in wizzies/agents to succeed, and the random fail rate on these ops is quite low. So if you want to cast Space Amazement or No Fear then just have 10% of your nw in wizzies and you will succeed about 99.99999% of the time (note that wizzies add to your nw so if you have 10,000 nw you can't just built 1000 wizzies.)

Thirdly the code isn't public because it is full of holes and exploits (as history has shown us) and is clunky; if you did see it you would probably cry.

Also you ban is probably unrelated to asking the question here, and possibly more to do with ingame behaviour (like creating multiple accounts? or trying to hack the game code)

Lastly the not explaining anything is more to do with the inactivity of the player base at this time - this game once was a bastion of activity and questions were answered properly and nicely, but that was like 10 years ago now...

Hey, some of us are up in the attic sniffing the walls

I once convinced Orbit that I was a good player =P