Topic: Not another Iran thread...

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/28/world … l&_r=0

After years of US and European sanctions on Iran, forcing stupid high inflation and unemployment, Iran's new president has begun shifting its policy stance to a more pro-negotiation stance, leading up to a break in the silence between the US and Iran for the first time since the Iranian Revolution.


So a simple question should come up here: What's next?  Is this a legitimate diplomatic shift?


On the one hand, Iran has been getting a ridiculous amount of international pressure recently.  The inflation rate in Iran is currently in the 40% range.  Unemployment's around 11%.  Moreover, with Iran's ally in Syria STILL in disarray and now about to disarm its own chemical weapons, Iran's military options for deterrence are starting to run dry.

On the other hand, Israel has noted this could be a bluff like with North Korea.  North Korea used to negotiate and reach out to the West in order to stall sanctions and other actions just before it developed its own nuclear weapon.  Moreover, even if this is an honest diplomatic move, it could easily create internal problems in the Iranian government, similar to Pakistan's terrible internal cohesion.


Thoughts?

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Re: Not another Iran thread...

Delays and stalling. Iran remembers how easily we spanked them when they damaged one of our cruisers with a mine.

They want time and with Putin outsmarting Zero, aka Obama this leaves our dear leader with only one nation with which to war against for nbc weapons. 0 clearly needs a popular war to help his destroyed reputation so Putin made them come to the table first.

Everything bad in the economy is now Obama's fault. Every job lost, all the debt, all the lost retirement funds. All Obama. Are you happy now? We all get to blame Obama!
Kemp currently not being responded to until he makes CONCISE posts.
Avogardo and Noir ignored by me for life so people know why I do not respond to them. (Informational)

Re: Not another Iran thread...

The Pentagon doesn't want to fight Iran either.  They've been saying that for nearly 10 years.  ( OK actually the truth is, anybody who thinks we could take Iran, doesn't get into the Pentagon.)  This supposedly expert opinion gives cover to dumbass politicians.

The core joke of Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy is that of course no civilization would develop personal computers with instant remote database recovery, and then waste this technology to find good drinks.
Steve Jobs has ruined this joke.

Re: Not another Iran thread...

The west has been hating on Persia for over 2000 years.
Must be some kind of collective mental defect.

The inmates are running the asylum

Re: Not another Iran thread...

we liked them 1955-1979!

The core joke of Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy is that of course no civilization would develop personal computers with instant remote database recovery, and then waste this technology to find good drinks.
Steve Jobs has ruined this joke.

6 (edited by Xeno 29-Sep-2013 02:14:35)

Re: Not another Iran thread...

How can a rational person believe or derive any sort of conclusions about anything from mainstream media sources anymore?  And non-mainstream sources?  Good luck weeding through those for anything useful. 

All a rational person without an ultra topic secret clearance can do is realise they can't have an informed opinion about anything regarding current events, politics, etc., other than, of course, that democracy is a sham, there is no freedom of the press, and humanity is held hostage to the whims of those in control of the real information.

All a rational person can do is embrace the irrational hope and unwarranted, undeserved trust that those people in control of the real information and facts won't use their power for malevolent purposes.

Re: Not another Iran thread...

how can a rational person be deliberately irrational?

The core joke of Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy is that of course no civilization would develop personal computers with instant remote database recovery, and then waste this technology to find good drinks.
Steve Jobs has ruined this joke.

Re: Not another Iran thread...

It's been a long time since a rational person posted on this forum yell, so I doubt we will get an answer to that question...

"Sticks and stones may break my bones, but i am Jesus"
"Nothing is worse than a fully prepared fool"

Re: Not another Iran thread...

I love how certain people ofc said N. Korea was never going to get the nuke.

Everything bad in the economy is now Obama's fault. Every job lost, all the debt, all the lost retirement funds. All Obama. Are you happy now? We all get to blame Obama!
Kemp currently not being responded to until he makes CONCISE posts.
Avogardo and Noir ignored by me for life so people know why I do not respond to them. (Informational)

10 (edited by Xeno 29-Sep-2013 22:01:34)

Re: Not another Iran thread...

how can a rational person be deliberately irrational?

As I said:

"All a rational person can do is embrace the irrational hope and unwarranted, undeserved trust that those people in control of the real information and facts won't use their power for malevolent purposes."

Rational people recognize that their trust in those in control is unwarranted, undeserved, irrational, and yet necessary.

It is the same as having to cross a bridge:  Pure ration dictates that there is no reason to believe the bridge will not collapse, but in order to get to where you need to go, you trust that the bridge won't collapse.  This trust is reasonable, although irrational.

Modern democracy, however, is another matter.  It is like such a bridge as above  that we must cross every day on our way to work.   Now unlike the bridge above, this bridge is known to collapse every so often.  It is just a matter of fact that after workmen have repeatedly repaired it, the bridge tends to collapse.  Now, although we know the bridge could collapse at any moment, we nevertheless keep crossing the bridge every morning, expecting the bridge to collapse even every day.

We know it is risky for us to continue crossing that bridge every morning, but because it is the only bridge in town and we have to get to work, it is also reasonable for us to do so, and to lessen our angst every morning as we cross it, we believe against all rationality and reason that the bridge will certainly not collapse.  We intentionally delude ourselves, and this self-delusion is both unreasonable and irrational as well as reasonable and rational.

For without deluding ourselves as to the structural integrity of the bridge, we wouldn't cross it, wouldn't be able to get to work, wouldn't survive.  Society is structured in such a way as to ensure the survival of those with the capacity to would delude themselves, and thus it becomes reasonable for us to do so; self-delusion becomes rational!

If the only way we might provide for our survival in an unreasonable, irrational society is to delude ourselves, self-delusion becomes reasonable and rational coping mechanism.

Over history, we've sen the tendency for human beings to delude themselves when to do is perceived to further their interests or to ensure their survival.

And in contemporary democracies, the same occurs.

Re: Not another Iran thread...

RAWR

NO

when you do the opposite of a thing you are abandoning that thing.  you don't "move Thing" over the river or "grow" it or "make it relevant" or "update it for the teens"

if you think it necessary to be irrational you abandon rationality

im sick of people saying "I'm a Bruce Springsteen fan but I prefer Elton John" NO NO NO NO OWN IT SUCKA

/rant

The core joke of Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy is that of course no civilization would develop personal computers with instant remote database recovery, and then waste this technology to find good drinks.
Steve Jobs has ruined this joke.

12 (edited by Xeno 30-Sep-2013 18:40:37)

Re: Not another Iran thread...

@Yell:

"if you think it necessary to be irrational you abandon rationality"

It is more complicated than that. As I have said, people hold things to be true irrationally all the time.  This tendency for them to do so is a survival mechanism.  And because it helps them survive, it is rational and justified then for them to hold such irrational beliefs.


"Truth
Main article: Truth

Whether someone's belief is true is not a prerequisite for (its) belief. On the other hand, if something is actually known, then it categorically cannot be false. For example, if a person believes that a bridge is safe enough to support him, and attempts to cross it, but the bridge then collapses under his weight, it could be said that he believed that the bridge was safe but that his belief was mistaken. It would not be accurate to say that he knew that the bridge was safe, because plainly it was not. By contrast, if the bridge actually supported his weight, then he might say that he had believed that the bridge was safe, whereas now, after proving it to himself (by crossing it), he knows that it was safe."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epistemology

People cross the bridge every day believing it is safe because they have no choice.  They are not privy to the information, facts, or knowledge that would prove it is safe.  In almost every day-to-day decision, people believe something without knowing for sure whether or not it is actually true because they must believe it in order to function in society (cross the bridge).

In our world, people exploit this necessity for people to believe without knowing, politicians especially.  The knowledge that the responsible citizen of a democracy needs to know in order to be a responsible voter politicians are in the business of manipulating, keeping it locked away.  It is their currency: they release only portions of it (perhaps to give credence to their outright lies) and only insofar as to do so might manipulate public opinion in a way favorable to those the politician's interests.   

The same is done by anyone, mainstream media tycoons, government agencies, institutions, or even individuals etc..  Those in control of the information maintain their control of it by not making it available to others or accessible to the public.  In terms of legitimacy of democratic government, the key insights or analysis that would inform the voter sufficiently to provide legitimacy to the democratic process are inevitably lost amidst the foray misinformation and omissions.   

Despite this, people naturally continue to believe in the democratic process, continue to vote based on the 'facts' available to them and their conscience, knowing full well that such has been manipulated.   Politicians know this too, which is why they are able to get away with virtually anything they want.

It is perfectly rational and justifiable for people to maintain this irrational belief in the legitimacy of contemporary democracies' democratic processes, for holding on to such irrational belief furthers their chances of surviving and prospering.  The very design of the system exploits this.

Re: Not another Iran thread...

Yes, this is why no federal government should tax more than 10%, and be limited to national defense and emergency issues

Everything bad in the economy is now Obama's fault. Every job lost, all the debt, all the lost retirement funds. All Obama. Are you happy now? We all get to blame Obama!
Kemp currently not being responded to until he makes CONCISE posts.
Avogardo and Noir ignored by me for life so people know why I do not respond to them. (Informational)

Re: Not another Iran thread...

because no one needs anything other than the largest guns to feel secure in jobs and well educated and healthy

"Sticks and stones may break my bones, but i am Jesus"
"Nothing is worse than a fully prepared fool"

Re: Not another Iran thread...

That knowledge which is quintessential to ensuring the actual legitimacy of democracy (not only the semblance of legitimacy of democracy) needs be publicized effectively, otherwise civilization collapses. 

I believe that it wasn't starvation or war that led to the fall of various civilizations of the past, but rather that these were symptoms of a primary cause: the public's recognition of the fraudulent, morally bankrupt, purely self-interest-based intent of those in control of knowledge.

16 (edited by Xeno 30-Sep-2013 23:18:13)

Re: Not another Iran thread...

Oh, and regarding Iran, yes, I believe they are just stalling.

Let's remember that no matter how the mainstream media and politicians on both sides try to spin it, the real reason for the conflict is the existential threat perceived by power brokers on both sides:

The US sees that if it does not retain its currency as the medium of exchange for global purchases of oil, its economy will collapse, while Russia, Iran, and China don't see that their economies and prosperity per capita can grow enough to ward-off mass social unrest and the collapse of their own regimes without trading oil in their own mediums of exchange.

It's the same old story - all about money, control, resistance to change, etc., surprise, surprise.

Re: Not another Iran thread...

Meh

=^o.o^= When I'm cute I can be cute.  And when I'm mean, I can be very very mean.  I'm a cat.  Expect me to be fickle.

Re: Not another Iran thread...

If that was the case, why would the US be buying the negotiation story?

Make Eyes Great Again!

The Great Eye is watching you... when there's nothing good on TV...

19 (edited by The Yell 01-Oct-2013 07:07:19)

Re: Not another Iran thread...

"It is more complicated than that. As I have said, people hold things to be true irrationally all the time."

To the degree they do, they are irrational. 

Being rational is too sexy to be defined literally! Then I couldn't belong!  I'm rational! I'm also black on Fridays! /s

or to have it another way

much of your emotional argument in defense of Hungary would be negated, if I made my contrary arguments as a fellow Hungarian.  Therefore it is rational for me to perpetrate the Magyar.

But the fact that I could gain some advantage by falsehood, does not relieve it of being false.  And a worldview built on falsehood cannot enjoy the term "rational"

The core joke of Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy is that of course no civilization would develop personal computers with instant remote database recovery, and then waste this technology to find good drinks.
Steve Jobs has ruined this joke.

Re: Not another Iran thread...

"But the fact that I could gain some advantage by falsehood, does not relieve it of being false.  And a worldview built on falsehood cannot enjoy the term "rational"

Use the term epistemologically justifiable, then?

Re: Not another Iran thread...

The Great Eye wrote:

If that was the case, why would the US be buying the negotiation story?

Who's to say they are buying it?

And even if they are, it's kind of irrelevant.  It's not as if they are going to scrap all their contingency plans based on the recent apparently good will gestures of the Iranians.

22 (edited by The Great Eye 01-Oct-2013 20:00:22)

Re: Not another Iran thread...

Xeno wrote:
The Great Eye wrote:

If that was the case, why would the US be buying the negotiation story?

Who's to say they are buying it?

And even if they are, it's kind of irrelevant.  It's not as if they are going to scrap all their contingency plans based on the recent apparently good will gestures of the Iranians.

The fact that the US is trying to reassure Netanyahu, their closest ally on the "hardline against Iran" stance, and the first nation isolated by the recent political shift... the alternative is that the US is conducting an elaborate and counterproductive ruse solely for the purpose of being able to say "gotcha," particularly when the alternative would have been to dismiss Iran outright.

It just would have been too easy to dismiss Iran's diplomatic gestures as North Korea shennanigans unless they did something substantive that they would never do.  Hell, we could have just said that, historically, the Iranian President has been little more than a puppet of the Ayatollah, so the diplomatic overtures meant about as much as if a Yosemite National Park ranger started establishing US foreing policy.  Instead, the US broke literally 30 years of silence between it and Iran.

So yes, I do think the US is buying it.  The fact that the goals of your narrative could have been so easily achieved just by doing exactly what we've done for the past 30 years empirically denies the existence of your narrative's truth.



As for your second argument, the existence of contingency plans is just that... a contingency plan.  It means nothing unless a scenario, however unlikely, appears.  That doesn't mean it's a scenario we find likely, or even shapes goals.  It just means "if this happens to occur, we have a plan of action so we're not running around like chickens with our heads chopped off."

Make Eyes Great Again!

The Great Eye is watching you... when there's nothing good on TV...

23 (edited by Xeno 02-Oct-2013 06:20:26)

Re: Not another Iran thread...

The Great Eye wrote:
Xeno wrote:
The Great Eye wrote:

If that was the case, why would the US be buying the negotiation story?

Who's to say they are buying it?

And even if they are, it's kind of irrelevant.  It's not as if they are going to scrap all their contingency plans based on the recent apparently good will gestures of the Iranians.

The fact that the US is trying to reassure Netanyahu, their closest ally on the "hardline against Iran" stance, and the first nation isolated by the recent political shift...

I'm not saying some people in US government aren't buying it.  Surely there are some who do.  My point was that even if some do think the Iranian goodwill stance is genuine, they are not going to scrap their contingency plans.

ZarftheFoamer wrote:

the alternative is that the US is conducting an elaborate and counterproductive ruse solely for the purpose of being able to say "gotcha," particularly when the alternative would have been to dismiss Iran outright.

The US might not be intentionally conducting a ruse, but it may just turn out to look that way.  You say the only alternative would have been to just ignore them, which, firstly, might not be the only alternative, and secondly, wouldn't have boded any better.

Iliketrains wrote:

So yes, I do think the US is buying it.  The fact that the goals of your narrative could have been so easily achieved just by doing exactly what we've done for the past 30 years empirically denies the existence of your narrative's truth.

So, just because the US is rejuvenating diplomatic relations with Iran, necessarily the US must be 100% sincere about their peaceful intent?  You can't paint the entire US political establishment with the same brush.  Surely there is a spectra of of differing of opinions, motives and intents among the various factions of the US political establishment.  A

re we arguing about whether or not the US is sincere in its desire to establish cordial, peaceful relations with Iran?  What of Iran and its sincerity?  I'm sure there are some on both sides sincere in their desire for peace as well as war mongers on both sides.

Zarfscarf wrote:

As for your second argument, the existence of contingency plans is just that... a contingency plan.  It means nothing unless a scenario, however unlikely, appears.  That doesn't mean it's a scenario we find likely, or even shapes goals.  It just means "if this happens to occur, we have a plan of action so we're not running around like chickens with our heads chopped off."

Sure, and I'm sure there is a contingency plan in place in the event Iran proves insincere.


We're thinking of nation states as individuals, as if there is unanimity of opinion, intent, motive, etc..  This is not realistic.  In reality, nation states are run by people not much unlike ourselves, with a milieu of different and often opposing agendas.

Re: Not another Iran thread...

... Reply coming later, but I just had to note, regarding your quotations!

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c … copter.gif

Make Eyes Great Again!

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Re: Not another Iran thread...

Also, would you please reconcile your arguments that the US is not operating with unanimity with the following:


Xeno wrote:

Oh, and regarding Iran, yes, I believe they are just stalling.

Let's remember that no matter how the mainstream media and politicians on both sides try to spin it, the real reason for the conflict is the existential threat perceived by power brokers on both sides:

The US sees that if it does not retain its currency as the medium of exchange for global purchases of oil, its economy will collapse...

Most important, who is this "the US" of which you speak, if it's not either a representative of the US with the authority to define the nation's political agenda, or a definition of an overall national viewpoint.

Make Eyes Great Again!

The Great Eye is watching you... when there's nothing good on TV...