Topic: Casino Question

If the House set up a coin toss game where the House got Tails, and winners could let it ride to double their winnings on a consecutive win, would the House make big money or would it lose its shirt?

The core joke of Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy is that of course no civilization would develop personal computers with instant remote database recovery, and then waste this technology to find good drinks.
Steve Jobs has ruined this joke.

2 (edited by Xeno 26-Mar-2013 20:24:32)

Re: Casino Question

neither - even odds.

3 (edited by Alundra 26-Mar-2013 20:27:47)

Re: Casino Question

house would make money. but not as much as to make it a reality tongue.
(edit) if the money didnt double til the 3rd or 4th toss maybe

Been dreaming, I've been waiting, To fly with those brave ponies
The Wonderbolts, their daring tricks, Spinning 'round and having kicks
Perform for crowds of thousands, They'll shower us with diamonds
The Wonderbolts will see me right here at the Gala!

Re: Casino Question

Ironically they would lose their shirt.

At 100 flips you could start knowing the odds at points of whether or not a next flip might be heads or tails. At 896 tosses the game is utterly bankrupting them

That is because of pascals triangle.

1 - 1
1 - 2 - 1
1  - 3 - 3 - 1
1 - 4 - 6 - 4 -1
1 - 5 - 10 - 10 - 5 - 1
1 - 6 - 15 - 20 - 15 -  6 - 1
1 - 7 - 21 - 35 - 35 - 21 - 7 - 1

The final row represents 128*7 tosses statistically. There is of course room for deviation, nothing perfectly fits at this level, but for gambling purposes this shall do.

In short there is one chance of heads seven times, 7 chances of heads six times and tails once, twenty one chances of heads five times and tails twice, 35 chances each for heads four/tails three and heads three/tails four, twenty one for heads twice, tails five, seven for heads once and six tails, and once for seven tails.

All youneed do is understand odds of reoccuring however. And then wait for enough stretches of heads before the current tails. Ideally you would watch for 4h 2t in a given 6 flips. This is 29 chances out of 128 that a heads will come up, or a near 1 out of 5 chance.

I have considered using this on Roulette but my memory is poor and I would have to show counting of odd/even results and red/black results as well as my efforts to identify first half and second half. Bet real low on the marginal times and medium on the good, double the bet when you lose because the odds keep getting higher that your result will happen.  The day a memory chip is implantable in the head.... I will be a millionaire (and be banned from all casinos) the following week.

That is three different variables that can skew in one direction or another... a Rainman type math guy could of course do far better... for him it would take about 1/10th the time to win.

Everything bad in the economy is now Obama's fault. Every job lost, all the debt, all the lost retirement funds. All Obama. Are you happy now? We all get to blame Obama!
Kemp currently not being responded to until he makes CONCISE posts.
Avogardo and Noir ignored by me for life so people know why I do not respond to them. (Informational)

Re: Casino Question

This also applies to most other games of chance.

Dont play poker against me... unless you have a spare set of clothes in your room.

Also I expect if I were not always tired feeling I could pwn in 21... that also is a simplistic math challenge when applying Pascals Triangle correctly.



Let me stress... excepting rigged games like the lottery (which has a different weakness) any game can be won via pascals triangle.

Everything bad in the economy is now Obama's fault. Every job lost, all the debt, all the lost retirement funds. All Obama. Are you happy now? We all get to blame Obama!
Kemp currently not being responded to until he makes CONCISE posts.
Avogardo and Noir ignored by me for life so people know why I do not respond to them. (Informational)

Re: Casino Question

no. you have to take into account random selection, the fact that the coin wont be tossed exactly the sam each time and that the casino will be aware of the odds you've just mentioned and do everything in their power to avoid the odds being in the punters favour -_-.

Been dreaming, I've been waiting, To fly with those brave ponies
The Wonderbolts, their daring tricks, Spinning 'round and having kicks
Perform for crowds of thousands, They'll shower us with diamonds
The Wonderbolts will see me right here at the Gala!

Re: Casino Question

Alundra allow me to educate you.

http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index … 638AA4GaXr

While each flip is a 50 50 chance when looked at in solo, when looked at in quantities of more than 2 flips then Pascals triangle will determine the likely layouts.

At 1000 flips I would bet on the year the sun explodes before saying that a 1000 flips of heads will happen.

If you're in school ask a math teacher. I promise, cross my heart, that he will say I am correct.

If your not in school then google a "Pascals Triangle" search. Read up on it. I consider this a more fundemental math law than the Golden Rule.

Everything bad in the economy is now Obama's fault. Every job lost, all the debt, all the lost retirement funds. All Obama. Are you happy now? We all get to blame Obama!
Kemp currently not being responded to until he makes CONCISE posts.
Avogardo and Noir ignored by me for life so people know why I do not respond to them. (Informational)

Re: Casino Question

lol let me educate you tongue
pascals triangle is a correct mathematical equation based on a perfect situation. it doesnt take into account any variables. so what your saying is correct on paper but not a definitive answer tongue.

Been dreaming, I've been waiting, To fly with those brave ponies
The Wonderbolts, their daring tricks, Spinning 'round and having kicks
Perform for crowds of thousands, They'll shower us with diamonds
The Wonderbolts will see me right here at the Gala!

Re: Casino Question

Oh... youre saying the casino would try to modify the results.

Look to the post Chris made and go off that.

There are people who live off of gambling on 21 and roulette. Counting for them and memory is easy.

Damn if I could memorize 6 factors (odds/evens, red/black, 1st third/2nd third/3rd third, top half/bottom half, every 1/4 outcome true number wise, and every 1/4 outcome board layout wise) on roulette and know where the count on each was... well at any given point there would be a hot spot excepting rare times. I would double or more my winnings per spin after the first twenty spins... until I hit max bet.... and walk away so rich after sixteen hours.

Everything bad in the economy is now Obama's fault. Every job lost, all the debt, all the lost retirement funds. All Obama. Are you happy now? We all get to blame Obama!
Kemp currently not being responded to until he makes CONCISE posts.
Avogardo and Noir ignored by me for life so people know why I do not respond to them. (Informational)

Re: Casino Question

Of course it is not perfect. I already showed in my own example there is a 22% (irc) of the next flip being heads. But in 100 such encounters of the set up if there is 29 flips of heads and 71 results in tails you still walk away a winner.

However as the numberof flips increases then Pascals triangle becomes FAR MORE exacting. When I do 100 bit strings chances for occuring... I consider the rounding at the end of the very long decimal to be the highest possible deviation. At such points I would bet 99.999% of my cash with ease.

Everything bad in the economy is now Obama's fault. Every job lost, all the debt, all the lost retirement funds. All Obama. Are you happy now? We all get to blame Obama!
Kemp currently not being responded to until he makes CONCISE posts.
Avogardo and Noir ignored by me for life so people know why I do not respond to them. (Informational)

Re: Casino Question

Einstein wrote:

Of course it is not perfect. I already showed in my own example there is a 22% (irc) of the next flip being heads. But in 100 such encounters of the set up if there is 29 flips of heads and 71 results in tails you still walk away a winner.

However as the numberof flips increases then Pascals triangle becomes FAR MORE exacting. When I do 100 bit strings chances for occuring... I consider the rounding at the end of the very long decimal to be the highest possible deviation. At such points I would bet 99.999% of my cash with ease.


the odds of the next flip being head is always 50/50.
I could flip 50 heads and the chances of the next one being head is still 50/50 because the odds of each flip are Independent of the previous flips.

Valour-the courage to do what scares you to death

Re: Casino Question

So your saying someone manages to get heads 100 times, his next toss is 50/50 for heads? Same for the next 5 tosses?

Shannon, Fano, Huffman, Einstein, Fibbonci, Pascal, and other mathematicians are laughing or rolling in their graves

Everything bad in the economy is now Obama's fault. Every job lost, all the debt, all the lost retirement funds. All Obama. Are you happy now? We all get to blame Obama!
Kemp currently not being responded to until he makes CONCISE posts.
Avogardo and Noir ignored by me for life so people know why I do not respond to them. (Informational)

Re: Casino Question

yes, the coin is either heads or tails,  50/50
it is irrelevant of how many heads you had tossed before.

granted the chances of tossing 100 heads in a row are 2^100;
however once done, the chances of another head are 50/50 not 2^101.

Valour-the courage to do what scares you to death

Re: Casino Question

you are misusing pascal's triangle.
pascal's shows the distribution over a population.
in other words, if I had 100 people toss a coin 7 times then
the number of people that got a certain number of heads would resemble pascal's triangle; however, for the individual  every toss is a 50/50 chance.

you are confusing population distrubution with probability.

Valour-the courage to do what scares you to death

Re: Casino Question

go casinos!

Leap ahead

Re: Casino Question

It seems to me if you limit the number of players at a time to 5 then the House has a 50% chance of wiping out the whole table each throw.  But if it loses then it has to pay 5 players at once.

In a worst case scenario, 5 players plunk down $5 ante, let it ride 6 times and each get $32.  The House would be down $160.
But if you guys are right this would happen less than 3% of the time - because apart from the 3% odds of losing 6x in a row there is also the assumption that the same 5 players sit in.

More than 97% of the time the House should get $5.

If so I guess the next question is, why can't we make an app for this big_smile

The core joke of Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy is that of course no civilization would develop personal computers with instant remote database recovery, and then waste this technology to find good drinks.
Steve Jobs has ruined this joke.

Re: Casino Question

the side thats facing up when the coin is flipped can also have an effect. believe there was some study that actually puts it at odds of 51/49

<&Parrot> kangaroos are sexy though
<&Parrot> look at them legs

Re: Casino Question

http://www.mathsisfun.com/pascals-triangle.html

Check the coin toss section


http://www.asylum.com/2009/12/10/how-to … -up-cheat/

However it is possible to rig the game and it does seem to be a bit rigged as noted above.




The alarming display of ignorance to statistics, odds, and probabilities in this community alarms me.

Everything bad in the economy is now Obama's fault. Every job lost, all the debt, all the lost retirement funds. All Obama. Are you happy now? We all get to blame Obama!
Kemp currently not being responded to until he makes CONCISE posts.
Avogardo and Noir ignored by me for life so people know why I do not respond to them. (Informational)

Re: Casino Question

Einstein wrote:

While each flip is a 50 50 chance when looked at in solo

/thread x 3

Re: Casino Question

Einstein:

the link you posted proves what I said.
Pascals triangle shows the distribution over a population.

Your understanding of probability is skewed.

Firefox:

Due to the heads being heavier, yes it is actually 51/49.

Valour-the courage to do what scares you to death

Re: Casino Question

we'll let the mafia thread be the mafia thread, however i would still like this question answered

[TI] Primo wrote:

tell me flint
how does the coin remember it landed tails up last time?
and how does it influence the outcome?

NEE NAW NEE NAW

Primo

Re: Casino Question

Idk I just posted the link.

Everything bad in the economy is now Obama's fault. Every job lost, all the debt, all the lost retirement funds. All Obama. Are you happy now? We all get to blame Obama!
Kemp currently not being responded to until he makes CONCISE posts.
Avogardo and Noir ignored by me for life so people know why I do not respond to them. (Informational)

Re: Casino Question

Everyone: +3834
Flint: 0

Re: Casino Question

tell me flint
how does the coin remember it landed tails up last time?
and how does it influence the outcome?

it should be possible to flip it to impact before it stops flexing from the prior impact

The core joke of Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy is that of course no civilization would develop personal computers with instant remote database recovery, and then waste this technology to find good drinks.
Steve Jobs has ruined this joke.

Re: Casino Question

Valcona wrote:

Einstein:

the link you posted proves what I said.
Pascals triangle shows the distribution over a population.

Your understanding of probability is skewed.

Firefox:

Due to the heads being heavier, yes it is actually 51/49.


I would assume a casino would either

a. come up with a new coin of equal weight
b. always take heads


Flint, comparing this to blackjack (21) is worse than stupid.  Counting in blackjack works because it is possible to remember what cards or left in the deck.  In the way portrayed in the movie 21, which is one of the most frequently used, they just count how many guards < 10 have been used.  This allows them to know there is a greater probability of them getting 2 high cards.

Now, this works because with each card dealt, a card is removed for the deck.  Going from 88 cards, to 87 cards, changes the probability of what the next card would be.
Example: If you take a single deck of cards, and start flipping them over 1 at a time, your initial chance of flipping over the 10 of diamonds is 1/52.  If you have flipped over 20 cards in a row, without it being the 10 of diamonds, the chance your next card is the 10 of diamonds is 1/32, which is substantially better. 

Now, lets go back to coin flipping, and for the sake of the argument say there is a 50/50 chance of heads.  We'll even say there's a machine that has been built to make sure that the chance of 50/50 is not subject to human error.  If, by some act of God, it were to flip coin Heads 1,000,000,000 times in a row, the chance of the next flip being heads is not altered.  Nothing has happened to change the probability of the next flip being 50/50.

That being said, I freaking love playing Holdem with you stat playing silly butts.  Nothing is more fun than bluffing your pants off when you have a flush and there's a potential full house showing, only to come back an hour later with the same situation and take all your money when I actually have the full house.

<KT|Away> I am the Trump of IC