Re: How soon til Israel attacks Iran?
Now you're stressing the word stress?
And you're one to call names, considering your history here.
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Imperial Forum → Politics → How soon til Israel attacks Iran?
Now you're stressing the word stress?
And you're one to call names, considering your history here.
@ Skoe
Stop insulting people, or you will get a forum ban....the full option version.
What is the point here ??
Syria and Iran have been attacking Israel for years.
The "Non-agression or Defence pact" is pointed DIRECTLY at Israel...... I hardly call that a "Defence" pact.
Its a mutual attack at will pact through the use of Terrorist Organizations pact.
Why do you Leftists continue to defend the terror supporting, Israel hating nations ??
Israel SHOULD take out the Nuke enrichment plant in Iran.....Because the rest of the capable nations of the world have no SPINE !!!!
Israel sure does, and they have shown a quite capable ability to do the job.
"Let's note that a pre-emptive strike has saved Israel's ass in the past. Some people say Israel striking first is a good thing"
I've got nothing against a pre-emptive strike against a percieved threat, but I highly doubt many nations would sit idle, and I certainly wouldn't, if a nation used nuclear weapons in such a strike.
lets be real here.....Israel would not use a nuke to attack Iran.
Israel would use a nuke in response to them being attacked w/nuclear weapons. Im sure they would.
Just as Russia or China would.....Im not so sure the US would, depending on the target (being that the US Has many international interests, much more so than China/Russia/Israel). If it were an attack on sovereign US soil vs. a civ target....Yea, the US would answer w/a nuke retaliation vs. a nation state's attack.
I would think a Nuke attack vs. Israel, by even a terror org would see a nuke on Damascus or Terran or any lesser target than that.
BUT.......
We are not talking about Nukes, I think. We are talking about taking out a Nuke refinement plant. Israel would use conventional, and take the international smoke screen attack.
China, needing oil, would breath easy.
UK and France would scream bloody hell, but would also be happy.
US would be split of course, make a diplomatic bull shit boo hoo, and celebrate after 5PM.
"There are hundreds of websites who talk of the alliance of Israel and Turkey. I contend that someone called for support (thus the threat of forum ban) because he found he could not support his claim Israel and Turkey are allied, and will not EVER admit he is wrong on something. I stress the word EVER! STRESS STRESS STRESS the word ever!"
No one called for support. Hell, I'm hardly online with my final exam coming so close, he wouldn't even have the time to poke me about it (he lives in a totally different area of the world you know).
Skoe seems to have a point there. A pact isn't an alliance.
I wouldn't like iran to have nuclear weapons and I hardly ever defend isreal in this forum. (tough I condemn the holocaust but thats something different)
Imagine:
A cold war status like between the soviets and the US. The "we die, you die" principle.
Why would it be far more risky for iran/israel:
There isn't a whole ocean between them. They don't have nuclear submarines and represent a smaller area.
-> low reaction time
They have a far bigger chance of flying over each other territories by accident. Or "invading" by accident.(especially the countries who lie next to it and could be related to iran)
-> territorial mistakes
Any madman with a little knowledge and some recources can launch a small unarmed rocket wich is a possible nuke for the enemy (maybe not from iran itself but still)
-> incidents
There always is the additional risk of a hardware failure or person to get trough the safety precautions and can actually launch such a system wich increases by every one such system in the world.
-> risk of accidential launch
The last one is greatly increased by the low reaction time.
LP well look at the positive side, if Israel and Iran have nuclear weapons, both get trigger happy and wipe each other out, then we've eliminated both sides of the problem.
we face this problems tough:
-one nuclear into the admosphere would practicly kill all electronics because of an EM-burst bringing half the world back to the stoneage. (2 counts for the entire world)
-nuclear radiation would spread
-other alarm systems might go off
-all recources in the area might be out of range for a long time
The pact between Israel and Turkey is bigger and stronger than any 'pact' should be.
They share military equipment, they share intel, they cooperate on intel actions against 3 nations exclusively (hardcore focused), they do manuevers on the ground and in the air together, as well as at sea, they build factories for the other on occassion, tech sharing, spies operate from each nation intergrated, Turkey has mediated several conflicts for Israel, to Israel's benefit (IE hidden pressure, we invade or you make peace!), they form a voting block on UN issues with lockstep precision... they seek out other allies together... having added India to their portfolio as well... Of all the sophisticated nations in the Middle East who have the ability to eventually make Nukes Turkey is the only one not responding to Irans building nukes with their own nukes (Hint here, if your allied to a nation which will nuke other nations for nuking you, no questions asked, then tis ok), stop talks of genocide or crimes of the others being talked about in their lands (Recognition of the Armenian massacre is being blocked by Jews... ironic) and they share a anti-missile defense system together....
How much do you require for alliance? So far the alliance has not had to use military force together because no threat has been to strong for either. However I am betting if Iran and Syria go hog wild then Turkey will occupy much of both in the end.
if Israel would attack Iran, they will face a long time war, because Iran has plenty of time to build up their defenses. this is not like the US launching some cruise missles into Sudan (Clinton Administration). Iran may lose their research facilities, but this nation is big and they had plenty of time to outsorce their producion and to build up secondary production centers. After the Israeli attack, Iran will launch counter operations, even an incasion into iraq is possible, since israeli aircraft have to cross iraq to attack iran. this can only be done with US agreement. so iran has a legitimate reason to attack US forces in iraq and afganistan, causing an all out war with high US victims. Shiits in Iraq will start an uprising to support their religious brothers in Iran. In the end iraq may fall in the hands of Iran. Is the US ready to fight a war at this scale in the election campaign? Never! We will not see an attack by Israel until the elections in the US are over and the US position in the conflict is clear.
Use of nuclear weapons: don't be fools, no legitmate administration can use nuclear weapons in a conflict. the worlds reaction would be extreme and nobody can risk that. MAD will secure the stability of the international relations and Iran is just securing it in their region.
Israel will fly through Turkey, their ally, air space in the attack on Iran.
@firewing:
"don't be fools, no legitmate administration can use nuclear weapons in a conflict. the worlds reaction would be extreme and nobody can risk that."
read my post above and argue about the different points then.
@skoe:
"I don't think it'd be that severe"
only shielded electronics will survive in about 1/2 of the globe dependant where you fire it. How can't it be that severe?
the problem in your calculation is the kerosin, even with refillment a problem when they face resistance from fighters in the air and on ground. better way is straight over iraq.
Turkey:
Israel and Turkey are interested in know-how by working together. Turkey is NATO member and candidate for the EU. If they allow Israel to flight over their territory they get problems at last from european NATO and EU member states. Turkey faces serious porblems in european relations atm, france, germany and some other states are very critical in their relations towards turkey. if they dare to support Israel in an pre emptive strike and braking of international law, they will end the process for turkey membership for EU immediatly. this is not in the interest of the turkey government. The EU membership means billions and billions of euros (not that worthless Dollars
) and a powerful position in european affairs. (the last expansion of the EU brought 75 million people in 15 states in the union, turkey has a population of 71 million alone. they would have the right to get as much money each year as all the 15 new states together. Israel has nothing to compensate this for a short time success.
So there are only 2 options for an israeli attack on Iran:
1) ignoring the jordanian sovereignty by flying over their territory and than over US controlled air space in iraq.
2) they fly around arabia like in the 80s when Israel destroyed the iraq nuclear facilities, avoiding to violate national air space. back than they caught them by suprise, today it would be an attack with annoucement and well defended targets.
So it is still option 1) for me.
@little paul
neither israel nor iran have nuclear warheads that strong to cause that amound of EMP. the israeli weapons are old plutonium warheads and iran trys to build something for a show demonstration test. the US/USSR tests of fusion bombs would have caused what u fear.
fallout is a problem, nations will demand compensation from israel than, when because of their attacks radioactivity spreads to their territory.
nuclear strikes would active cold war detection systems, as simple earthquakes do too.
fallot depends on many factors, like winds, radioactive material in the atmosphere, rain, etc.
but this is a good point for the US NEVER to allow an israeli attack, or do you want to pay 10 or 20 Dollars / litre gas???
"neither israel nor iran have nuclear warheads that strong to cause that amound of EMP"
Israels nuclear arsenal is partly secret. Thermalnuclear boms give less emp I thought? Could be wrong.
Anyway, I was talking longterm. They only have to make one or 2 of the bigger nukes for this purpous.
is israel attacks, they [dont help us], with all we're trying to achieve on either side of Iran.
it wouldn't be in our best interests to continue our alliance if they do that, not that that alliance is in our best interests anyways.
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