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Imperial Forum → Politics → Rep. candidate switch?
The Rep. national convention in Tampa will happen on August 27, 2012 and Romney is far behind Obama in the polls. Besides other issues the "tax return" problem is pressing his campaign hard. So, will the Republicans change horses on the convention? Who would be a better candidate?
Legally almost impossible.
The convention system the GOP and Dems use really doesn't allow the types of political games and back door deals that occurred during the Civil War. Convention delegates chosen via primary are generally directly chosen by the winning candidate (i.e., they're Romney's guys). Caucus delegates, though elected at the local caucuses and thus not hand-picked associates of any particular campaign, are generally legally required to follow the state popular vote in at least the first round of National-level voting, or if their choice has endorsed another candidate, follow that endorsement (I may be wrong on at least this part).
Either way, for a sudden change in the candidate to take place, it would require not just some, but a majority of the delegation to violate their state laws or backstab the guy who hand-picked them for the convention, in what could only be described as one of the biggest political coups in recent American history.
The only way this would really occur would be if Romney himself bowed out of the election. And honestly... forget politics for a moment. Think of Romney as a person. He has literally spent about 6 consecutive years and millions of dollars running for President. He's finally being given the opportunity to run... and he's going to turn around and decline? Even if he was likely to lose, could you really imagine him turning away, and spending the rest of his life asking himself "what if I didn't decline that nomination" when the answer to that question is less than 3 months away?
He is not falling behind in polls...
He is beating Obama in them.
The polls by media are promoting a horse race. They consistently have a sample with Democrats with a 9-11% advantage over Republicans when the exit polls in the last elections show the percentage of voters are about evenly distributed between independent, Democrat and Republican
Not sure what poll your looking at firewing. Nationally Romney isn't what I would concider "far behind" (as Einstein mentioned, he is leading in a few of them).
> The Yell wrote:
> The polls by media are promoting a horse race. They consistently have a sample with Democrats with a 9-11% advantage over Republicans
I see what you did there 
Take a battleground State with a near even Democrat and Republican base.
30% Dems, 40% Independents, and 30% Republicans.
Places like CBS are polling 40% Dems, 40% Independents, and 20% Republicans.
This is how they get a 4% lead for Obama in their polls. I think they are also going on the outside edge of the margin of error as well, but meh.
Romney is leading in real polls
Tax return problem?
Obama is just waging class warfare in the hopes that enough Amerikans are dumb enough to vote on jealousy. Romney's campaign is sitting quiet, as usual, precisely because it's not pressing them hard.
if there was nothing odd in those tax returns why not release them? either there is something fishy in them, or there isn't and he's just stringing it out like Obama did with his birth certificate
Or, like Obama and his school records, they will never be released just because.
if there was nothing odd in those tax returns why not release them? either there is something fishy in them, or there isn't and he's just stringing it out like Obama did with his birth certificate
For the same reason that when asked of the 535 members of Congress, only 17 were willing to give theirs out. None of those 17 were the loudest speakers against Romney's "hidden" tax returns (Reid, Pelosi, etc).
http://rt.com/usa/news/congress-tax-disclosure-publicize-608/
There doesn't have to be anything fishy in them for Obama to use them as ammunition in his class-warfare campaign, East.
It doesn't matter how much he donates to charities or how much he legally shelters off-shore from our ridiculous taxes. The fact that he has a lot of money is ammunition for class warfare, and his tax returns are an excuse to attack him for being rich, regardless of what they do or do not show.
This is a mob tactic of trying to convince the largest number of ignorant idiots to agree that they're jealous of Romney, therefore it must be important to reelect Obama, the sharing and caring spread the wealth guy. I don't blame Romney for avoiding or delaying facing a mob tactic.
I still think he sucks and won't be voting for him. I'm just sayin'.
Betting money would suggest the incumbent has an advantage. Obama must hope job figures for August-October are good. At this late stage not sure what else he can really do... perhaps pray an American wins the PGA, the weather is nice and there's some good news stories.
Jobs figures will get worse as companies delay hiring to see how the election goes, weather will get worse (heading to winter), and his likely voters don't commonly watch the PGA.
> Einstein wrote:
> Take a battleground State with a near even Democrat and Republican base.
30% Dems, 40% Independents, and 30% Republicans.
Places like CBS are polling 40% Dems, 40% Independents, and 20% Republicans.
This is how they get a 4% lead for Obama in their polls. I think they are also going on the outside edge of the margin of error as well, but meh.
Romney is leading in real polls
I guess FOX must be calling more Dems and Independents too Obama is up 7pts in theirs
Yes sticks they did.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2012/08/09/fox-news-poll-presidential-race/
page 13
When you think about politics, do you identify yourself as a Democrat or a Republican?
5-7 August 12
Democrat 44%
Republican 35%
Independent 14%
Don't Know/ Refused 6%
Sticks,
Fox often isn't as bad as other broadcast news agencies, but it's still terrible. They're in love with the status quo as much as anyone in Congress. As long as they get faux political arguments to report on and some inside contacts giving them juicy tid-bits to report on, they're happy.
Anyone not accepting the status quo on Fox gets canned as quickly as anywhere else. They pretend that Republicans and Democrats are the ends of a pretend spectrum, rather than pretty close together on the real one. They ignore the obvious hypocrisy of people who feed them information, regardless of how obvious and unmistakable the pandering and hypocrisy are. They have a few different allies and leans, but they're not radically different in how they operate.
IF there's no "horse race" then there's no point in watching political coverage or any of the "experts" these networks hired to yak about how important THIS WEEK has been
Every week is IMPORTANT
more important than last week
More important than NEXT WEEK
PAY ATTENTION THIS WEEK MATTERS
until next week
IF there is no horserace all of that is a waste of time
consequently, there must be a horserace!
Cause without bitching about Obama , what has Fox got? We found that out when Cairo exploded in revolt...everybody had to watch CNN like it or not, Fox can't spell 'Egypt' without hiring consultants
Imperial Forum → Politics → Rep. candidate switch?
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