Re: Soviet Science

what I was taught in graduate school is that there is no certainty possible.  What you CAN achieve is professionally respectable procedures for selection and evaluation of evidence, in support of a hypothesis.

For instance, we cannot KNOW the population of France in 1150. We can make an educated guess, explain what evidence we think will support that guess, and then collect and evaluate it in such a way that peers will review it and say "yes he did not make serious mistakes in what to look for and how to consider it".   The highest goal of our profession would be, to have our peers say "there is no disagreement possible except with the original guess, for if we disagree with that guess it is time to find evidence that will support that contrary guess".

Now of course they will come along and say "Yes I agree with you the population of France was X, but a better test is canal traffic and taxation."  Or "The Population of France was Y, and the evidence is more grain and less sheep for trade wool".  You don't want somebody saying "I rechecked your math, and I come up with Y not X" cause that means you suck.

And then the whole profession benefits, because Adam says the population of France was X and look at the amount of mills; and Bob says Belgium by the same measure had a population of N; but Charles says Adam was wrong and the population of France was Y; and Doug contrasts the calculations of Adam and Charles; and Ed applies the Charles way to Belgium and re-evaluates Bob; and Frank reconsiders Ed in light of Doug; and Gilbert applies the Marxist critique of Adam; and Helen rips Charles for his chauvinistic ignorance of female economy in the Middle Ages; and by then Ichabod can write a history of the history of the population of France and make some nice zingers at his old profs.  All this makes it easy-peasy for Jake, Kelly and Lou to get graduate degrees which means they can teach Mike, Ned, Ollie and Paul how to guess at the population of France in the correct manner, having taught them a false simplistic way at the BA level.

But Soviet science says "The Party likes Guess #15" and then God help whoever seeks to challenge the Party. To challenge the Party is to overthrow the state!

And this is what I see coming with global warming and homosexual history and other "science"

Egghead: Let us suppose that industrial pollution drives climate, and explore all the evidence in support of that hypothesis
Me: Bearing in mind it might not drive climate, and the evidence may demonstrate that fact if we remain open to it.
Egghead: <taking out notebook> why should one wish to suppose that, Comrade?

I mean I don't forget I'm talking to Queequog and Raoul and Steve here, who only know from Ned Ollie and Paul how to guess the Kelly way.

The core joke of Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy is that of course no civilization would develop personal computers with instant remote database recovery, and then waste this technology to find good drinks.
Steve Jobs has ruined this joke.

Re: Soviet Science

In America, you make scientific advances.
In Soviet Russia, scientific advances make you.

Make Eyes Great Again!

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Re: Soviet Science

Lolol....

Is funny coz is tru

<StrykerKp> whos the sxy guy?
<Snailex> banksy
<StrykerKp> o ok

I don't fight great wars  .......  I fund them!

Re: Soviet Science

The Soviets gained many technologies from Germany in 1945, e. g. rocket science. They would have needed much more time to reach space or even the moon without german know-how. The US space program is the same story.

Re: Soviet Science

true as that may be, firewing, I think yell wants to debate another topic.

Re: Soviet Science

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-normal_science

The inmates are running the asylum

Re: Soviet Science

yes and once you start challenging the Social Authority of those attempting to rally political pressure in favor of a "scientific" solution by challenging the hypothesis, you are attacked --in the name of Science

The core joke of Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy is that of course no civilization would develop personal computers with instant remote database recovery, and then waste this technology to find good drinks.
Steve Jobs has ruined this joke.

Re: Soviet Science

Your opinion seems to be in stark contrast with reality.

Science advances and always has done by having its hypotheses challenged and refined in the light of new evidence. Where scientific hypotheses are proved wrong they are thrown out.

If you have new evidence which proves, notwithstanding all known physics, that increased CO2 in the atmosphere will not have a greenhouse effect, I suggest you make it known- there could be a nobel prize in it for you.

Its religion not science that sticks to old dogma and ignores any evidence that conflicts with its belief system.

Re: Soviet Science

>>Its religion not science that sticks to old dogma and ignores any evidence that conflicts with its belief system.<<

Soviet Science does that too, because it has a mission!

For instance, despite no drop in CO2 levels, temperatures over the past decade have been observed to be flat.

That's the observed facts.

If as you say, science does not ignore evidence that conflicts with its belief system...then it's time to reconsider whether pollution drives climate...

But you don't!  Instead of accepting the failure of AGW theory to explain flatlines you insist that until and unless evidence to the contrary is developed into a contrary complete and proved model of terrestrial climate, it doesn't count...

...and we can go forward accepting that pollution drives climate, except we haven't discovered the arbitrary, unexplained, massive climate process (on an order of magnitude equal to the missing heat energy of the entire planet for a decade) that is stealing the trapped heat and storing it.

How simple! Glory to the social authorities! Down with the rebels!

The core joke of Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy is that of course no civilization would develop personal computers with instant remote database recovery, and then waste this technology to find good drinks.
Steve Jobs has ruined this joke.

Re: Soviet Science

Some additional facts:

Co2 IS a greenhouse gas - the physics behind it are well understood - if there is more CO2 in the atmosphere,  average temparatures will tend to increase over time. surely you are not disputing this?

Nobody expects temparatures to go up in a straight line each year.

Re: Soviet Science

Also an interesting fact

US NOAA weather stations show temps on average 1 degree higher than they should be.

What this means is we are .6 degrees under the 'median' established by AGW advocates.

Ofc a firing squad will show up to my door for this 'inconvienant fact'

Everything bad in the economy is now Obama's fault. Every job lost, all the debt, all the lost retirement funds. All Obama. Are you happy now? We all get to blame Obama!
Kemp currently not being responded to until he makes CONCISE posts.
Avogardo and Noir ignored by me for life so people know why I do not respond to them. (Informational)

Re: Soviet Science

What is this "'median' established by AGW advocates" ?

Do you have a link to this "data"

Im guessing you made this up- or dont really understand it.

Re: Soviet Science

>>Co2 IS a greenhouse gas - the physics behind it are well understood - if there is more CO2 in the atmosphere,  average temparatures will tend to increase over time. surely you are not disputing this?
Nobody expects temparatures to go up in a straight line each year.<<

is this a joke? 

We were told the Consensus was that temperatures would go up in a straight line every year.  Al Gore?   Inconvenient Truth?  Nobel Prize?  Vague recollections stirring maybe?

http://www.forbes.com/sites/larrybell/2012/05/29/global-warming-alarmism-when-science-is-fiction/

The Greenhouse Effect means simply put, energy (solar heat) enters the atmosphere and doesn't leave.
If it's not present as heat, that energy in an equivalent form has to present SOMEWHERE, in a proportionate amount.
If it left the earth THERE IS NO GREENHOUSE EFFECT.

The absence of heat is evidence directly challenging the notion that Terran levels of CO2 are anywhere near enough to trap solar energy like on Venus.

Yes Venus has a greenhouse effect.
It also has no oceans, no limestone and an atmosphere thick with acids, much denser than our own at sea level.

Rather than sink into Soviet science and repeat your conclusion and explain away the observations in light of the settled conclusion, do some real science and evaluate the conclusion in light of new observations...

The core joke of Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy is that of course no civilization would develop personal computers with instant remote database recovery, and then waste this technology to find good drinks.
Steve Jobs has ruined this joke.

14 (edited by Selur Ku 07-Aug-2012 19:21:48)

Re: Soviet Science

You say that Scientists expected temparatures to go up in a straight line and as evidence you present an opinion peice by Larry Bell (an Architect)?

Please try harder.

Re: Soviet Science

Sure.  There's no reason an architect can't interview a meteorologist and then write an article.  Go ahead and click on the link to the former IPCC meterologist, that's what it's there for.

I feel like you're making fun of me Selur,

I open a thread complaining of conformist groupthink orthodoxy in a manner reminiscent of the Soviet Union,

and you respond by
a) sending Al Gore down the memory hole and
b) complaining my sources are politically unreliable

The core joke of Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy is that of course no civilization would develop personal computers with instant remote database recovery, and then waste this technology to find good drinks.
Steve Jobs has ruined this joke.

Re: Soviet Science

algore.com

He IS hollering, still, that current trends will bring palm trees to the Antarctic

The core joke of Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy is that of course no civilization would develop personal computers with instant remote database recovery, and then waste this technology to find good drinks.
Steve Jobs has ruined this joke.

Re: Soviet Science

There is nothing in the article of any of its links to indicate that real Scientists predicted that temparatures would increase in a straight line by a consistent amount year ion year.

You would have to be an idiot to expect such a thing- predictions of trends are just that- nobody in their right mind would suggest that for each year it should be exactly on the line?

We have had and will contiune to have periods with faster than trend warming and of course with slower.

and regardless of that fact that 2000-2010 the trend was almost flat- it was still by far the warmest decade on record.

As for the "missing heat" nobody suggests we have a complete understanding of short term mechanisms, but there is plenty of published reaserch ( by real peer- reviewed scientiss) which suggests that "The planet

Re: Soviet Science

>>here is nothing in the article of any of its links to indicate that real Scientists predicted that temparatures would increase in a straight line by a consistent amount year ion year.

You would have to be an idiot to expect such a thing- predictions of trends are just that- nobody in their right mind would suggest that for each year it should be exactly on the line?<<

Really?

Here is the OFFICIAL IPCC Assessment, the first one from 1990.
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_first_assessment_1990_wg1.shtml#.UCFlhvaPWAi

Here's the Annex where they give predictions.  They have a range but as you will see on page 336 of the report they do in fact predict that whether emissions are stable at 1990 levels or whether 1990 levels are cut in half, the temperature will in fact go up every year.
http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/far/wg_I/ipcc_far_wg_I_annex.pdf

See why some of us will NOT roll over for IPCC?

>>As for the "missing heat" nobody suggests we have a complete understanding of short term mechanisms, but there is plenty of published reaserch ( by real peer- reviewed scientiss) which suggests that "The planet

The core joke of Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy is that of course no civilization would develop personal computers with instant remote database recovery, and then waste this technology to find good drinks.
Steve Jobs has ruined this joke.

Re: Soviet Science

when the model doesn't match the observations then question the premise of the model, don't holler that mystery observations will confirm authority

The core joke of Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy is that of course no civilization would develop personal computers with instant remote database recovery, and then waste this technology to find good drinks.
Steve Jobs has ruined this joke.

Re: Soviet Science

Im not really sure what specific model you're talking about.

I think there are three questions two of which appear to be settled.

1) Is the Earth warming- I dont think there can be any dispute that it is.

2) Does an increase in atmospheric CO2 contribute to that? - I think that again is certain. The scientific model pedicts that if tmospheric CO2 continues to increase then global temparatures will continue on an upward trend.

3) Can they accurately predict from year to year what future temparaures will be? -  Nope  all they can do is predict a trend.

If your point is that we need to throw out everything we know because they cannot accurately predict year to year changes- I think thats a bit silly.

Re: Soviet Science

I know that if outside energy is present in greater force in the atmosphere for years, and then, isn't present, it may well not be trapped by a greenhouse effect.

If there were no greenhouse effect, we can expect the outside energy to escape.

The absence of outside energy in the atmosphere is EVIDENCE in support of that theory.

http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/far/wg_I/ipcc_far_wg_I_annex.pdf

Figures A.9 and following show they figured it would go straight up, as would be expected if heat was being trapped.


>>1) Is the Earth warming- I dont think there can be any dispute that it is.<<

Seems undisputed that temps flatlined for a decade, which isn't consistent with the greenhouse theory.

>>2) Does an increase in atmospheric CO2 contribute to that? - I think that again is certain. The scientific model pedicts that if tmospheric CO2 continues to increase then global temparatures will continue on an upward trend.<<

But temperatures didn't increase, and CO2 didn't dip.  This makes the greenhouse gas theory highly unlikely.  Heat can't be trapped AS HEAT, SOMETIMES, and other times just go away. 

>>3) Can they accurately predict from year to year what future temparaures will be? -  Nope  all they can do is predict a trend.<<

They didn't accurately predict a trend, they totally failed to predict a decade of flat temperatures.

The core joke of Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy is that of course no civilization would develop personal computers with instant remote database recovery, and then waste this technology to find good drinks.
Steve Jobs has ruined this joke.

Re: Soviet Science

> Selur Ku wrote:

> Im not really sure what specific model you're talking about.

I think there are three questions two of which appear to be settled.

1) Is the Earth warming- I dont think there can be any dispute that it is.

2) Does an increase in atmospheric CO2 contribute to that? - I think that again is certain. The scientific model pedicts that if tmospheric CO2 continues to increase then global temparatures will continue on an upward trend.

3) Can they accurately predict from year to year what future temparaures will be? -  Nope  all they can do is predict a trend.

If your point is that we need to throw out everything we know because they cannot accurately predict year to year changes- I think thats a bit silly.



You might want to add to this:
4) Is the contribution of CO2's impact on temperatures sufficient to significantly explain anomalies in temperature?

This is the critical issue, because even with the scientific conclusion that molecules of CO2 attract and store heat, the aggregate amount of CO2 in the atmosphere may not be enough, despite the truth value of all 3 other questions you framed above.  Additionally, this brings in the issue of alternative causalities (the increasing number of sunspots, perhaps?) to explain said changes in temperature.

Note: I have absolutely no idea of what the right answer is.  I just like to make sure the questions are fairly represented before the answers are drawn.  tongue

Make Eyes Great Again!

The Great Eye is watching you... when there's nothing good on TV...

Re: Soviet Science

you are a social traitor zarf

you question the authority of the praesidium

the hypothesis is settled

it is time to find the observations that will uphold it

The core joke of Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy is that of course no civilization would develop personal computers with instant remote database recovery, and then waste this technology to find good drinks.
Steve Jobs has ruined this joke.

Re: Soviet Science

"Seems undisputed that temps flatlined for a decade, which isn't consistent with the greenhouse theory"

You could have said said the same thing a few dozen times over the last 150 years-

Oh look temparatures havent risen over the last 10 years so the earth isnt warming.

But you would have beem wrong every time.

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.A2.gif

Re: Soviet Science

>algore.com

chilling nwo propaganda

The inmates are running the asylum