1 (edited by Little Paul 04-Mar-2012 11:48:13)

Topic: Rusians "free" election

Putin has won already ofc. But the real question is how big the resistance is. That will determine the real power base of the new chairman. I hope it will becomes clear a big portion hates the guy and that forces him to do democratic reforms but chances are small.

Any other opinions about the tsar?

Re: Rusians "free" election

When I heard he had four opponents I laughed at the idiots. Brilliant plan, splitting the vote!

Everything bad in the economy is now Obama's fault. Every job lost, all the debt, all the lost retirement funds. All Obama. Are you happy now? We all get to blame Obama!
Kemp currently not being responded to until he makes CONCISE posts.
Avogardo and Noir ignored by me for life so people know why I do not respond to them. (Informational)

Re: Rusians "free" election

idd.

Re: Rusians "free" election

Russia can not have a democratic political system. The power coalition is too small, and without a strong leader its elite will tear each other apart. Consider the infighting between competing factions before Putin designated Medvedev as his successor.

Re: Rusians "free" election

"The power coalition is too small, and without a strong leader its elite will tear each other apart."
In a democracy, the president sometimes has more power, as he doesn't need to fear an overthrow. Many of the "strong" leaders in the USSR where victim of a coup or "died" after a few years. (Malenkov, Chroestsjov, ...).

Next to that the elite DID tear each other appart. Only the ones around putin and his powerbase survived and took over everything.

Its crazy how the vast amount of oil and gas didn't make Russia more prosperous. It means almost everything else fails. Putin is a failure and made Russia comparable to NK.

Re: Rusians "free" election

He has torn everything apart. I have been watching that, industry after industry.

And he does not care, nor does his Hitler Youth... I mean those young kids who attend daily meetings with organizers of his.

Everything bad in the economy is now Obama's fault. Every job lost, all the debt, all the lost retirement funds. All Obama. Are you happy now? We all get to blame Obama!
Kemp currently not being responded to until he makes CONCISE posts.
Avogardo and Noir ignored by me for life so people know why I do not respond to them. (Informational)

7 (edited by Justinian I 05-Mar-2012 19:23:46)

Re: Rusians "free" election

Paul,

I am afraid you are confused. Since Putin became President, Russia's economy has significantly improved.

First, allow me to detail what happened under the Yeltsin years.

1. Yeltsin inherited a declining economy that could barely pay for the state's expenses, and his rapid transition to a market economy made the economy worse, for a time.

2. Corruption was rampant because of poverty, underfunded public services, a lack of transparency, and the government's desperation to pay state expenses. Firstly, Yeltsin's privatization schemes such as the one that issued stock vouchers to Russian citizens benefited wealthy individuals. Rather than buy stock, the mass of desperate Russians illegally sold them to wealthy individuals for cash. This made wealthy individuals wealthier, as they were able to purchase state assets for less than their worth. Secondly, there was little transparency. This allowed political insiders to enjoy unfair competitive advantages. Thirdly, the criminal justice system was underfunded. This caused police to demand bribes, and businesses had to rely on the mafia to enforce their business contracts. Finally, Yeltsin was compelled to hasten privatization by exchanging state assets for money to add to the state budget, and the money the government received was usually much less than the market value of those assets.

3. Political power fragmented. Firstly, Yeltsin and Parliament issued contradictory orders, which caused governors to cherry pick sides. This escalated in to the 1993 coup. Even after the new constitution had made the president in to a 'super president,' Yeltsin was still forced to make concessions to economic and political elites. For example, he promised the governors "all the autonomy you can swallow" in the 1996 elections. Secondly, governors pushed the limits of their autonomy. For example, some issued their own passports and currency. At the extreme, Chechnya seceded. Unable to tolerate the political liability that Chechnya posed, Yeltsin was forced to send inexperienced conscripts to crush the rebellion after the professional military units refused to participate.

In summary, the Yeltsin regime was usually desperate for money to pay for the state's budget, and the concessions it was forced to make made it weak and dependent on political and economic elites.

But Putin changed all that. He has:

1. Restored the vertical balance of power.
2. Balanced the budget and instituted a flat tax.
3. Eliminated low level corruption. Police no longer demand bribes, and the state's monopoly on enforcing business contracts has been restored.
4. Significantly grew the economy. Nominal GDP more than doubled under Putin's presidency, average salaries increased from $80 to $640, the middle class grew from 8 million to 55 million people, and poverty fell to 14% from 30%.
5. Crushed the Chechnya rebellion.

Now it's true that Putin's regime is authoritarian. He has dealt with oligarchs who have misbehaved, and replaced them with professional colleagues he trusts. It's not hard for him to do, since every oligarch is guilty of tax evasion. Those who misbehave receive selective justice. Secondly, Putin isn't afraid to control the legislature with material incentives. Someone in the legislature who misbehaves may notice that their Moscow apartment or salary is withdrawn. Thirdly, Putin has shown a willingness to assassinate his most irritating opponents, rig elections, and use force to put down a demonstration.

However, unlike the totalitarian regime of Stalin or the weak regimes of Khrushchev, Gorbachev, or Yeltsin, the character of Putin's regime is moderate and closer to czarist Russia. Putin is like a referee to the elite. He settles their disputes, and maintains the balance of power between them by manipulating them to compete for his favor.

Now that I clarified the historical, economic, and political facts of Russia, it seems that you are confused about a few other important things. The first is strong leadership and Stalinist-style brute force. Stalin was foolish and would have suffered a coup, had it not been for Hitler's depopulation efforts during the invasion of the USSR. The second is the circumstances under which democracy is possible. You seem to think it's possible to create a liberal democracy by simply organizing the government that way. Well, that is not how things work. The political and economic climate determines the possibilities of government a state will have. It's possible that developments in Russia are moving towards a democracy in the decades ahead, but forgive my skepticism about the practicality of liberal democracy in the present. Without an individual strong enough to serve as a referee between the elite, they will fight like rats in the sack. Also, you are confused about the infighting that happened in 2007-2008. The infighting was between factions all ready supporting Putin. It was not a scheme to identify or purge his enemies, lol.

Finally, you have unfairly judged Putin. He can not be compared to dictatorships like North Korea. Putin has not depressed economic development or created a command economy to increase his control or buy the loyalty of his supporters like the majority of dictators tend to do. Neither has Putin assumed totalitarian control of the media. While it's monitored and guided to serve his objectives, it's much more free than other authoritarian regimes. Articles and political cartoons critical of Putin are occasionally circulated with little backlash from Putin's government. Moreover, Putin participates in press conferences, and although he restricts the journalists who are permitted, only some topics are completely censored (like Chechnya). Additionally, one way he deals with critical journalists in press conferences is to call on supportive or moderate journalists to either provide comical relief or change the subject. In totality, Putin has governed moderately and has been much more consistent with liberal principles than other authoritarian leaders.

Re: Rusians "free" election

He has not been a moderate.

Half the people able to challenge him in an election were arrested, and accidents happened to the rest.

He has made actual unemployment sky rocket to the point the youth have few dreams of success.

The mafia may not be shooting RPG's right now, but that's because they found cyber crime.

It is telling how bad the economy is that porn production with teens has skyrocketed in Russia.

Putin also artilleried the hell out of the capital of Kosovo, invaded a US Ally (Georgia) and has stonewalled actions against Iran.

He is hardballing European nations with his oil and natural gas, putting up trade barriers, and more.

He thirsts for power, he thirsts for a super legacy, and he is an expansionist.

Everything bad in the economy is now Obama's fault. Every job lost, all the debt, all the lost retirement funds. All Obama. Are you happy now? We all get to blame Obama!
Kemp currently not being responded to until he makes CONCISE posts.
Avogardo and Noir ignored by me for life so people know why I do not respond to them. (Informational)

Re: Rusians "free" election

"It is telling how bad the economy is that porn production with teens has skyrocketed in Russia. "

now how did you notice that?

Colorado: even in the 11/01 war i made more hits.
Colorado: 447 blow jobs.
Big Gary:  Only a fool cannot admit when he's wrong...
AW:    i love rim jobs
RisingDown: I know you do

Re: Rusians "free" election

I did do some research on porn after I found out California was banning uncondomed porn.

And no, they were not picture books tongue

Everything bad in the economy is now Obama's fault. Every job lost, all the debt, all the lost retirement funds. All Obama. Are you happy now? We all get to blame Obama!
Kemp currently not being responded to until he makes CONCISE posts.
Avogardo and Noir ignored by me for life so people know why I do not respond to them. (Informational)

11 (edited by Justinian I 05-Mar-2012 22:32:04)

Re: Rusians "free" election

Flint,

Here are claims of yours with truth:

1. He has pacified the majority of his political competitors.
2. He has stonewalled actions against Iran.

-Of course he has. He's a political realist, and what realist at the helm of Russia wouldn't aim to frustrate US dominance in the Middle East?

Claims that are false or mostly false:

1. The mafia decided to be less violent because cyber crime is more profitable.

- Cyber crime is irrelevant. The fact is that the Russian state now enforces business contracts because it has the funds to operate, and police do not usually demand bribes because they are now adequately paid.

2. The unemployment in Russia is absurdly high, especially for young people.

- According to the CIA fact book, Russia's unemployment in 2011 was 6.8%, It experienced an increase in unemployment in 2009, but that wasn't unusual around the world.
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/rs.html

-Additionally, the CIA fact book confirms that Russia's PPP is growing, and that Russia enjoyed an economic recovery under Putin's government.

3. Increased porn production indicates how bad the Russian economy is.

-Since when does a poor economy correlate with porn production? The same argument could be made for a growing economy. Additionally, porn profits have declined since the recession.

4. Putin bombarded Kosovo with artillery.

-I think you are confusing Kosovo with Chechnya. I am surprised you are complaining about his invasion of Chechnya, considering they rebelled under Yeltsin, Yeltsin invaded them, and radical Islam is popular there.

5. He invaded Georgia.

-This is true, but you are implying a good vs evil polarity that didn't exist. In politics, everyone is evil. There are no good people. Everyone's first concern is power and political survival. The fact is that Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili decided to take a risky political gamble in South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Those regions of the country were pro-Russian and traditionally resisted the central government, and he wanted to bolster his political support and calm the many protests happening in the country by establishing control in those regions. Of course, this provoked Russia, who came to their defense.

6. He is hard-balling Europe with his country's natural gas and oil reserves.

-The only example of this I can think of is when he cut gas to the Ukraine. However, this was because Tymoshenko, the Prime Minister of the Ukraine, was being provocative and aggressive with Russia. She wanted to sever traditional ties, and even join NATO. For obvious reasons, Putin couldn't allow this. So he cut gas, damaged her political support, and bolstered Yanukovych support as an 'experienced' politician. If anything, this is an example of US expansionism, not Russian expansionism.

Re: Rusians "free" election

"2. Corruption was rampant because of poverty, underfunded public services, a lack of transparency, and the government's desperation to pay state expenses."


You forgot "They're sleazeballs"

The core joke of Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy is that of course no civilization would develop personal computers with instant remote database recovery, and then waste this technology to find good drinks.
Steve Jobs has ruined this joke.

Re: Rusians "free" election

"Paul, I am afraid you are confused."
Oh, don't worry about me, I'm happy none the less.

"Since Putin became President, Russia's economy has significantly improved."
It couldn't get much worse. During the Yeltsin years oil and gas where cheap. With the raise of energy resources also the Russian econ very slowly climbed out of the complete and utter darkness. It has no substantial econ however and without those resources it would be even more dead as it was during Gorb.

It was Yeltsin who did the hard work.

"But Putin changed all that. He has:"
"1. Restored the vertical balance of power."
It is very much a structure like during the USSR.

"2. Balanced the budget and instituted a flat tax."
He narrowly balanced the budget with oil money. There is no substantial growth in any other industry.

"3. Eliminated low level corruption. Police no longer demand bribes, and the state's monopoly on enforcing business contracts has been restored."
That is so untrue. Bribing is a way of life for bureaucrats and very often the police forces. The state monopoly on enforcing business contracts causes huge waste and inefficient corporations.


"4. Significantly grew the economy. Nominal GDP more than doubled under Putin's presidency, average salaries increased from $80 to $640, the middle class grew from 8 million to 55 million people, and poverty fell to 14% from 30%."
Those are official numbers -so not to trust - and the time you refer to is the complete chaos after ussr collapse. Its a bad comparison if anything. Despite the huge amounts of raw material and energy resources, a great amount of skilled educated workers desperate to find work, the countries econ did not grow as it should have.

"Now it's true that Putin's regime is authoritarian."
We do not deny that now do we?

"He has dealt with oligarchs who have misbehaved,"
Misbehaved means not part of his powercirckel.

"and replaced them with professional colleagues he trusts."
Professional? Where do you get that nonsence from? He picks them for loyalty or influence but hardly ever for competence. Many of those rich people are rich because of Poutin.

"Secondly, Putin isn't afraid to control the legislature with material incentives. Someone in the legislature who misbehaves may notice that their Moscow apartment or salary is withdrawn."
That is called corruption. People should be rewarded in relation to their work and effectiveness instead.

"Thirdly, Putin has shown a willingness to assassinate his most irritating opponents, rig elections, and use force to put down a demonstration."
Continuing the legacy of the USSR.

"However, unlike the totalitarian regime of Stalin or the weak regimes of Khrushchev, Gorbachev, or Yeltsin, the character of Putin's regime is moderate and closer to czarist Russia."
He is far weaker, as he can only slowly proceed to a more totalitarian and closed regime without uprisings. But he does non the less.

"Putin is like a referee to the elite. He settles their disputes, and maintains the balance of power between them by manipulating them to compete for his favor."
Why is that a good thing?

"The first is strong leadership and Stalinist-style brute force. Stalin was foolish and would have suffered a coup, had it not been for Hitler's depopulation efforts during the invasion of the USSR."
I doubt it. A coup could only come from the top, not from the bottom.

"The second is the circumstances under which democracy is possible. You seem to think it's possible to create a liberal democracy by simply organizing the government that way."
That is what you presume but it isn't true.

"It's possible that developments in Russia are moving towards a democracy in the decades ahead, but forgive my skepticism about the practicality of liberal democracy in the present."
It has always been your opinion for over 10 years that an authoritarian regime is better a democracy, so I can't act surprised.

"Without an individual strong enough to serve as a referee between the elite, they will fight like rats in the sack."
They do so in every democracy on earth.

"Putin has not depressed economic development or created a command economy to increase his control"
He does it on a large scale. His bureaucracy almost openly asks money from small and big entrepreneurs and if they don't pay, they get a visit from the police or his militant youth. As much as one in six of the self employed in certain sectors are in jail, and no its not because of fraud.

He is nationalising on a large scale because its the only way to gain more control and keep his unstable regime alive. The soviets knew that, and he does to.

"or buy the loyalty of his supporters like the majority of dictators tend to do."
He buys the loyalty of many with oil and gas money he invests in large wastefull projects. I cannot understand you said such a thing.

"Neither has Putin assumed totalitarian control of the media."
Most of the media is heavily censored and he uses the state budged for his own propaganda machine. The few free media left is victim of many attacks.

"While it's monitored and guided to serve his objectives, it's much more free than other authoritarian regimes."
That doesn't mean its free.

"Articles and political cartoons critical of Putin are occasionally circulated with little backlash from Putin's government. Moreover, Putin participates in press conferences, and although he restricts the journalists who are permitted, only some topics are completely censored (like Chechnya). Additionally, one way he deals with critical journalists in press conferences is to call on supportive or moderate journalists to either provide comical relief or change the subject."
That only means his regime is weaker as those in the times of the USSR.

"In totality, Putin has governed moderately and has been much more consistent with liberal principles than other authoritarian leaders."
He had no choice and he is rapidly reverting everything.