"Why would they need this unless they wanted to use it."

So the US WANT to use their subs/navy/airforce/army? It is more to do with increasing the capabilities just in case they need to use it. Do not want to end up in a bad situation unprepared. The large stockpiles of nuclear weapons was for "retaliation" purposes, and when you take into account the MAD policies adapted in the 70's (I think it was in the 70's) it shows that neither side wanted to strike first, but in retalition if a strike were to occur. I think your point begins to highlight that the US is no longer able to maintain such a large growth of its military, and without that capability, its ability to "maintain" world peace is diminished. So what happens then? Regional hemogonies begin to form.

As for the Chinese military, internal defence budget is the largest expenditure in the defence budget. This to me says that the Chinese fear an internal revolt that they do fear an external attack. Also it shows alot of their intentions, they want to protect their position, not pick a fight. I believe that Einstein made a comment comparing China to the Nazi's, but I would like to point out that Hitler had the support of his people behind the war, can you same the same with the Chinese? The Chinese now have the capabilities to bolster their strength, and considering their history of being invaded (Mongols, Japanese, the British, etc), upgrading their capabilities should not be seen as an act of war, otherwise we end up in another Cold War situation (and although I am not an expert on economies, can the US economy really afford to boost the military budget?).

"Alright, and what were their thoughts on the matter?"

Rather opened minded actually. They understand the need for population control (abortion here is not really frowned upon, and is welcomed), and they also understand the need for greater flexibility. Most Chinese women will want more than 1 child, but understand the reasons behind the limitations. Whenever I speak about political issues in China, I hear their views and give mine, so far it's been very open minded.

"Why not?"

Tiananmen square is the biggest censored issue in China. As I said, the other things are no issues unless you start telling the government what to do. I do not speak to the government, so why would hearing peoples knowledge of the situation affect anyone? I only don't talk about it because in the small chance that someone from the government hears, then I would hate to lose my scholarship. For me, it is a matter of the potential loses being greater than the potential gain. And before you jump into it, I would like to ask what would happen if foreign students in the US began to spread anti-government sentiments. They would possibly be arrested, and once arrested be deported (what I don't want to happen to me).

Also was looking at your previous comment "China wouldn't go to war simply because their 100 million bachelors would have nothing better to do, but because those 100 million bachelors wouldn't be able to afford to do anything better."

So a man only has a worth when he has a wife? In fact I think it would be the other way around, that the men who are married with a child can't afford to do anything better (money grabbing women!). A man without a wife also would be focusing his time in trying to find a woman, not being forced into the service. Also, the effects of the gender gap are dispersed over the whole country, it is not like there is one city with only 100 million men, there will still be available women for these men to chase, they will just be facing more competition (which means more effort/time will be devoted to that). By the time that it gets to a problem, these men begin to be alot older, maybe even into their 40's, but at LEAST in their 30's. They would not be ideal soldiers, nor would they be as susceptable to ideological wars I feel. My take on it, is that many of these men will look overseas to find a wife (Russia perhaps, Thailand maybe, but that is what alot of lonely older men in Western countries do, so why wouldnt the chinese bachelors do the same?)

> 100 million soldiers could easily occupy Afghanistan... and a few dozen other nations.

I'm going to ignore the rest and just say that you sir, are an idiot.

> xeno syndicated wrote:

> > ~Wornstrum~ wrote:

> > xeno syndicated wrote:

> Also, I dare you to try talking about the skewed gender ratios with Chinese (I'm sure you can since you are living there).  It's about as touchy a subject as the 3 big T's (Taiwan, Tibet, Tienanmen Square massacre).  The sociological effects of the skewed gender ratios is not a factor to be discounted entirely.

>I did bring it up a few times , no problems talking to Chinese about it.

Alright, and what were their thoughts on the matter?

>I wouldn't say it's as touchy as Tiananmen Square, although that was interesting to talk to a Chinese person about and get their knowledge of the events (However, I do not dare talk about what I have learnt though).

Why not?

Ok I went one step further (was a slack day in the classroom today, so the teacher was just chilling having a chat with us), and so I brought up ALL of your "don't talk about" topics, and she was happy to talk about them. She discussed problems, potential solutions, and the ideology behind it. I also brought up my own understanding of the events, and still very happy to talk about it. I brought up Tiananmen Square, and got a rather interesting inside account of their knowledge.

My teacher also had some rather nasty things to say about the US which I found rather interesting and funny

"china will not outnumber our navy anytime soon
we have 11 (12?) carrier battlegroups... China has 1 half functioning test carrier that is super old"

Yeah very true, but I think the original post is to "deal with the threat" whilst it would be relatively easy, but this kind of thought leads the need for China to defend its own borders does it not? I mean Justinian has used his realist ideals to justify the US the sole hegemon, and with the same ideology denounces anyone else looking out for their own interests. I still maintain that any threat from China is small, and also glad that a few in this forum do not have authority to act on their beliefs.

100 Million soldiers, with no food, during winter?  I highly doubt it.  They would have been stockpiling resources in order to push any sort of military campaign forward.  And in todays military, the most advanced equipment can win the day over numbers.

Iraq described themselves as a 1 million manpower strong army.

Which was reduced to guerilla fighters in less than 100 hours of combat during Desert Storm 1.  The Iraqi's at the time had the most advanced military infrastructure that only the Soviet Union could provide.  Which turned into so much garbage in less than three days. 

The most advanced chinese arms technology is only reserved for their most fanatical units.  Otherwise china is still boasting quite a bit of military technology that hasn't really advanced from their current 1960's hardware.  China's philosaphy is the same as the D-Day at Normandy beaches.  Throw enough troops into the fray, and you will break through.

The most optimum time for an invasion from China would be Spring and Summer.  They would have to occupy and pacify an entire country by autumn, and then fortify just as snowfall before winter.  Besides the same tactics of IED and guerilla warfare that the US had to fight both during the Iraq and Afghanistan war, the Chinese would have to rely heavily on support from the conquered territory.

The other problem china would face is...yah they have 100 million men...without women.  And the chances of rape atrocities will abound in any such campaign.  The chinese government never cared about apologizing for their police state brutality, and they would never earn the hearts of minds of conquered citizenry when reports of mass rapes start pouring in.  And in the world news, when those atrocities start getting to the newspapers, the world will be highly pissed off.  "War for Land Or for Concubines," will read in the headlines.  This will hurt their world image, but if the world is less willing to fight to push china out, then china in the long run would win.  If there really is 100 milion men, and their consripted or actually serve.  I'm pretty sure they can take every last IED, and just keep sending more troops.  And since the chinese are so good at building walls, support from other nations would be near impossible.

Now the Chinese government has taken all this into account.  Their socialists, but their not stupid.  Their main objective is limited pokes and prod actions, that force an opposing side into "Rash Action".  This rash action would be seen as a military excursion by the chinese government, who would feel the need to protect their borders, by advancing military force against said Rash Action.  That means a quick desicive war of occupation.

That is why china backs the North Koreans, when the North fires rockets into little South korean islands.  Tibet, had no strong influence in the world, or military power.  Always testing their borders with Russia, because parts of Russia where the Chinese poke and prod are literally strips of uninhabitable land.  Whatever they can grab, they will take.  Whatever shows strong resistance...they continue to poke and prod to induce the enemy to make the "First military action", before they declare a state of emergency or war.

If China goes to war.  It will have to be a quick decisive war.  They don't have the resources to field a starving population, and a military machine at the same time.  They pour all the resources into military force, chances are they won't have anything left in case revolution takes hold.  That's another thing China's government has to watch out for.  If they go into a military campaign...do they have enough troops back home, to prevent an all out insurrection amongst the populace?

There's a lot more questions than there are military options.  And China's military high command knows this.

There's about a dozen more things that I havn't even commented on that will directly effect China if they went to war.  One of them being the World Agency that helps ship food to China on a daily basis.  A lifeline that would be cut short if China actually opted for the war scenario.  If china is importing food.  The vast majority of those imports would come to a dead stop.  China's Economy, the yuen, would also come crashing down as each nation placed embargoes on them.

Pretty much the only thing keeping China from the military option is Food and their economy collapsing due to embargoes.  Though the embargoes would have to be placed after china went to war.  China has already stated that any embargoe against their country would be seen as an "Act of War".  They have stated this in the 1960's, 70's, 80's, 90's, and again in the 21st century.

China is a toothless dragon.  Lots of fire, lots of rumbling, lots of noise.  But their a hallow pinata, ready to be clobbered if they did anything stupid as start a war first.

Now if Einstein hasn't figured any of this out...you better believe, I would never vote for him in any political office.  Especially if he doesn't understand the nuances of how military force and sociliast governments actually work.

The civil unrest usually happens when nature arrives.  Flooding.  Earthquakes.  Starvation.  Just those three things in themselves cause quite a bit of distress.  When it was found that many buildings collapsed because the chinese contractors used substandard material to save cost overruns...such as the schools collapsing while neighboring government buildings remained intact.  That really hit a civil unrest nerve with many parents, who lost their children, and by chinese law...were not allowed to have another one, after the death of their one child.  That law you spoke of and the change they institued on the 1 child...was not strictly because of an imbalance of the sexes...but do to unforseen deaths.  And in this case after the earthquake, multiple deaths of children specifically.  China had a powder keg, which they defused by a laxing of their 1 child law, to allow those that had family losses, make up for those losses by starting over with a new child.  This allowed many who lost their only child, to greve, then move on starting up a new family.

If there would be any civil unrest, or uprising of the people, some form of the military arm of china would have to back the populace.  Much like what happened when the Iron Curtain fell.  Gorbachev said, to hell with Socialism, and the military split.  Some took arms against the people, and some took up arms to defend the people and Gorbachev's decision.  It was a mess.  The rubel became worthless overnight.  Mass transit fell apart.  Communications were only open to other nations.

Of course Russia is starting up their campaign to reinstate a socialist empire, with many high office jobs being given to former KGB heads of staff.  And others being filled by current or former Strong Arm leaders, and arrests of opposing government runners...

Let's just say, if Russia went back to their old Iron Curtain socialist government, China would crow of how democracy failed, their governments national pride would take an upswing, much to the detriment of the people.

And then we would have a real problem, as China started asking for repayment of national debts by other countries.  This would probably cause some smaller countries to take economic hits, forcing the Yuen to gain more economic clout and power.

This would cause unrest in other nations that deal with China as a trading partner.

It's the small nuances surrounding China, and inside China, that will be the deciding factor if China ever went to war.

Heh... I am not running for Federal Government... only State Government... and the price of Freedom is higher than any mortal can purchase from me.