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Imperial Forum → Politics → Kim Jong Il...
... is dead.
http://www.cnn.com/2011/12/18/world/asia/north-korea-leader-dead/?hpt=hp_t1
Okay... now here's the prediction I want to make... I've done some research into this, and there's actually something really interesting that may come up.
The next question here... is going to be the transition issue. Until about a year ago, North Korea really hadn't developed a succession plan. So if this happened then, there would seriously have been a real power vacuum in North Korea. Now, however, we have an interesting scenario. Kim Jong Il spent about a year and a half establishing the legitimacy of one of his sons, Kim Jong Un. Presumably, this would be the person supposed to take power in North Korea, so it should be a relatively simple transition.
However... there's a couple caveats to this story. First, this isn't a clear transition. You all know how it normally works in monarchies... the first son takes power after their father dies... this guy is Kim Jong Il's third son. Not that this is necessarily an important issue, but it establishes some legitimate counter-claim from a different son who wished to take power.
More importantly, though... this new guy is not a North Korea insider. Until about two years ago, he was actually living in China... most North Koreans didn't even know this guy was Kim Jong Il's son until a couple years ago when he started being groomed for leadership. Being a Chinese resident, he's been very engaged in the international economy... something from which North Korea is completely divorced. So... from the perspective of the North Korean military, this guy is the completely new kid on the block who has only been groomed for leadership for a couple years, and is apparently the guy whom the military is supposed to take orders from. That's never a good sign.
As a result, North Korea is a nation ripe for an internal coup. The next year will be critical. If Kim Jong Un can secure his power in North Korea, through political courting to the military, and perhaps some reforms, he will probably be able to secure leadership. However, if he's seen during this first year as a weak leader, it's very possible the military could either push him out of power (remember, this new guy is not a military man... he's a business man), either placing a general in power or finding another son to place in power as a puppet.
I do pray there is no coup, I am planning to travel to North Korea at some point in the near future...also going to add I live not far from the North Korean border...PLEASE PRAY FOR THE PEACE TO BE MAINTAINED!!! (I say this because there will be a flood of refugees if the is a coup, borders will have tighter security, etc)
But your point is a valid one. I think some of the generals will try and seize control, but I still think it will lead to some reform within North Korea...
Oh, I agree... long term, this could definitely be a good step toward long term reforms... this new ruler was not insulated within the North Korean government... it's definitely very possible that liberalizing reforms, particularly toward opening North Korea to international trade, could begin to occur. That being said, if reforms happen too soon... and more importantly, if reforms are carried out in a way that looks like capitulation to foreign powers, a serious internal crisis could occur.
Markets don't seem to like the instability caused by this, investors realizing, perhaps, that mere rumors of a coup against a 20-something-year-old with nukes could end up being a rather explosive (or should I say implosive) self-fulfilling prophecy.
That brings up one random question:
At age 27, would that make the new guy the youngest ruler to ever control a nuclear arsenal?
And yeah, the region's kind of bracing for impact. South Korea's military is on high alert right now... not sure what Japan's up to...
Ding dong the witch is dead!
There is multiple issues here
1) The general population has been propogandized that the Kim family is... well God like. That his power and authority is natural.
The technology level of most of the nation makes it hard to fight such brainwashing.
That 100% of the able population is in the military also bears in thinking.
This is not a free thinking military structure but an absolute structure. This does create a follow orders at all costs situation.
So on that hand we have a very regimentalized nation.
Then on the other hand there is knowledge of other nations... the illegal immigration into China, the high level on and off work with S. Korea...
So there is knowledge of the outside world being possibly better.
I however have a very strong worry.
The military is used to being the ONLY power there.
As I said... 100% of the able population is considered to be in the military, takes part in military drills annually, and most of their industry is military related.
This means a coup is very likely to happen if the generals see a reduction in their power (mind you I would not say that of most nations, but these generals never cared about the starvation of their people, they cared about their own fuel first and foremost).
I do not see a buyout working... these guys enjoy the power... and wealth is foreign to them.
So I see war.
Considering how weak our President is, this is very inauspicious timing (he is not attacking Iran or threatening to do so for the theft of military equipment by Iran... he could send three carrier groups which would get cooperation, but he won't... which makes him look even weaker).
I see only one result of this.
War.
Not just civil war... no. The general who gains power must cement it with an ongoing crisis that only he can seem in control of. So this means war.
I will hope the coup will not happen in the next 13 months. That will give us a new President and perhaps a better chance to stare down their military.
Everyone needs to Pray on this issue.
>1) The general population has been propogandized that the Kim family is... well God like. That his power and authority is natural.
Marx is spinning in his grave
Marx is trying to avoid attention in Hell, but it is a crowded place with Hitler, Stalin, Pol Pot, Kim Il, Saddam, Osama, and such...
"Dear Leader" was his title. And he was dictator for life. He has set up a monarchy that claims to be a Socialistic Society... Poor Serfs
Ron Paul may be the next President. Heh. He's closing in on Newt Gingrich in the Iowa Poll, and is ahead of Romney.
On the bright side, Ron Paul won't be weak. He just won't care.
I was going to comment on your points Einstein, but I feel that it would just offend you in a small way (am taking your feelings into consideration), but my only point that I want to make is that we are all brainwashed to a certain extent, you honestly cannot be taught in a classroom without it. You get taught bias's by teachers, they influence their personal opinions. Same with parents. Governments influence through campaigning. Media influence is not even disguised (the local news website in Australia does not even try to offer a reasonable comments section, and comments are filtered out by sheer entertainment value and not based on factual evidence).
Propaganda exists on both sides of the great divide in Korea (I have met alot of South Koreans here in my dorm), and they certainly hold strong opinions towards North Korea (which trying to talk to them, is not held through personal interactions but a cultural aspect). The fact that the people actually love their dictator (yes, they really do...saw a rather interesting doco on North Korea once, that showed alot of the individual life in North Korea). Now whether you disagree with them is irrelevant, the individual made their choice (people in China still love Mao Zi Dong, dispite the cultural revolution, etc, and Chinese do know about these things...yet for the majority, their opinion is unchanged).
I would like to know what made Kim Jong Il so evil? (there is alot of things I can think of off the top of my head, but I also don't think they are limited to facist dictators). The US aided and embedded warlords in Somalia. The US aided Osama Bin Laden to fight the ruskies. Same with Saddam (or so I am told). The US continues to sell arms to warlords in Africa to make profits on arms, and this is not considered evil?
As for the attacks on South Korea last year, the US and South Korea have been running "exercises" close to the North Korean border regularly for a long time. Also North Korea has been demonised in international politics (for what? Human Rights abuses that have taken place in far more countries around the world the US won't interfere with?). So what did they expect would happen? You repeatedly kick a dog, eventually it will bite.
I think a different stratergy for North Korea would work more wonders than constantly using the threat of retaliation. Self determination for North Korea, with little hinderance, may open the borders for more trade. Trade leads to rising middle class, which leads to reforms, and the cycle continues. You cut off trade, aid, and continue to threaten, and you may see a desparete measure of war break out. But I don't see an external war being faught, it will all be a civil war over power...
(And so much for me not posting...also sorry, I am very tired, and this may be incoherent rambling...)
> ~Wornstrum~ wrote:
> I would like to know what made Kim Jong Il so evil? (there is alot of things I can think of off the top of my head, but I also don't think they are limited to facist dictators). The US aided and embedded warlords in Somalia. The US aided Osama Bin Laden to fight the ruskies. Same with Saddam (or so I am told). The US continues to sell arms to warlords in Africa to make profits on arms, and this is not considered evil?
Oh, I'd say there's a good list.
1: Utter starvation of the people by choice (even if we don't take into consideration that North Korea could have made a deal to obtain foreign aid, the Military First doctrine means North Korea had a government policy of starving the population)
2: Violating the NPT, both by developing its own nuclear weapons and by attempting to trade nuclear secrets to other nations (remember the nuclear reactor North Korea sold to Syria?)
3: Engaging in a number of illegal activities, ranging from the drug trade to counterfeiting currency
4: The very idolization system you described could easily be described as the very nature of evil, because it sells a lie to the people in order to legitimize a government that wouldn't last 12 seconds if the government had any sort of accountability to the people... allowing the government to literally do whatever the hell it wants without anyone lifting a finger.
As for the attempt to demonize the US... I love how people assume it is not considered "good" to assist one enemy in order to fight another enemy. The scenarios you described of US intervention all follow a clear model. We aided Bin Laden (at the time a very minor element in Middle Eastern politics) because he was relatively unimportant, but could potentially exhaust the resources of a real serious bad guy (the USSR) if given the technology. Given the circumstances, I really think the US came on top here... the Afghani war was coinciding with the US military spending increase meant to bluff the Soviets into bankruptcy... yeah...
As for Iraq, yes, the US did help Saddam... in fact, during the Iran-Iraq War (when Iraq invaded Iran while Iran was just starting to settle from the '79 revolution), the US was helping Iraq. That being said... first of all, most of the world was helping Iraq (this is probably one of the few instances in Cold War history where a nation would be receiving substantial military aid from both the US and USSR), and second, even the US acknowledged that the goal was not to make Saddam win, but instead to just get both nations to waste resources (Henry Kissinger, the US Defense Secretary at the time, was actually quoted saying "It's too bad they both can't lose the war." Although historically, they definitely did both lose). It's just a good pragmatic system to aid bad guys in that context... if the bad guy wants stuff to fight a completely different bad guy... you have now taken out 2 bad guys! Frankly, I think the US is better off in both scenarios (wearing down the Soviet Union and bringing both Iran and Iraq into a decade of war when the alternative without international intervention would have most likely been an Iran which controlled the oil-rich Shiite portions of Iraq, becoming the #1 supplier of oil in the world today).
From an international relations perspective, this is just bad foreign policy. We don't get to choose who we're friends with. Geopolitical circumstances create friends. This ethical standard would have required that the US not cooperate with Stalin in order to take down Hitler, a move which would have easily resulted in a dictator much worse than Stalin controlling the most populous, industrious portions of Europe, perpetuating a continent-wide dictatorship, Holocaust and all...
Oh... I found this funny... (I'm still wondering whether it's legitimate...)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pSWN6Qj98Iw&feature=g-logo&context=G26e9309FOAAAAAAAAAA
> Zarf BeebleBrix wrote:
> > ~Wornstrum~ wrote:
> I would like to know what made Kim Jong Il so evil?
Oh, I'd say there's a good list.
Zarf +1
> Zarf BeebleBrix wrote:
> Oh... I found this funny... (I'm still wondering whether it's legitimate...)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pSWN6Qj98Iw&feature=g-logo&context=G26e9309FOAAAAAAAAAA
Are you really wondering that much?
Such organized mourning they have there.... Those formations with an artistic flair for supposed individuality would have made many a military unit proud.
Perfect formation on the college students as well. Much to be impressed about them, except the sincerity of their mourning...
Maybe there is hope after all.
As for the all people are brainwashed...
Information is free... When you ignore information outright you are brainwashed. When you have examined information before and only examine new changes in the information your enlightened. When you keep abreast of all information all the time you suffer from information overload.
Not as much "is this possible" disbelief as "does reality have this much a sense of humor?"
War is Peace, Hate is Love, Weakness is Strength, and Mourning is Joy..... 
Wornstrum if your argument is
Not Guilty, and So What If They Did
there's not really a need to make the case is there?
My prediction is that things will run as-is for at least the next few years.
There is nothing to indicate war, the North Koreans wouldn't allow a war during such a crisis - the risk of defections is far too great.
Since the leader is mostly just a figurehead anyway, the generals will do nothing more then to promote and groom him.
As for Obama being weak for not attacking Iran, that's just stupidity talking.
The U.S. couldn't realistically commit "3 carrier groups", nor could it commit several trillion more in war spending.
Skoe,
It would not necessarily cost several trillion dollars in war spending. The 3-4 trillion dollars in war spending has included Iraq, Afghanistan, and operations in Pakistan. That is also from 8-9 years of military commitment.
Iran is a regional competitor to Saudi Arabia. The House of Saud is hostile to Iran, and both Saudi Arabia and Jordan have begged the United States to destroy them. Considering the House of Saud is estimated to have at least $500 trillion in cash assets, with upper estimates far exceeding $1 trillion, I am sure they would be willing to help the US cover the cost of crushing their competitor.
Additionally, we wouldn't necessarily have the same problems in Iran as we did in Iraq. First, Reza Pahlavi can easily be elevated to his rightful place on the Persian throne, so concerning ourselves with establishing a democracy would be unnecessary. Moreover, Iran's economy is perhaps suited to a painless transition to a constitutional monarchy. Second, Iran has a near homogenous Shia population. By contrast, the Iraqi invasion provoked violence in Baghdad's streets due to the combination of political instability and the historical domination of the Sunni minority over the Shia majority.
In summary, the factors necessary for transitioning to a new government already exist, there is reason to believe stability will be achieved faster in Iran, and the House of Saud may be willing to pay a large portion of the bill for their security.
ummm the shah raped women with dogs while their husbands watched I don't think he's ever coming back.
This would be a good time to remind the Chinese that if they help us sink the North Korean govt. in favor of unification of the peninsula under Seoul, both Korea and Japan would holler Yankee-go-home and we wouldn't have carriers west of Manila; as long as there's a insane clown posse running the worlds biggest concentration camp in Pyongyang threatening the whole northern hemisphere with nukes, our Navy is going to be right there 1 hour from Beijing. We're only over there because the locals like the idea that that we'll throw a billion dollars of ordnance on Pyongyang if it bites. Without that threat they remember they hate our guts.
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