Topic: Swift depreciation of oil

What would happen if there was a swift and sudden depreciation in the price of oil?

Unlikely scenario?  No.

Consider the flatscreen TV.  As soon as it came to the point where it was cheaper and more profitable to produce a flatscreen TV than a tube TV virtually all tube TVs were replaced.  You could pick them up for free on roadsides or for 5 to 10 dollars at garage sales.

The same could happen with oil.

If the cost of producing a electric vehicles becomes more profitable than producing combustion-engine vehicles, a similar replacement worldwide would occur, and the price of oil would suddenly drop.

And as people would have already switched to electric vehicles and in the consumer mindset would the elctric vehicle as superior to the combustion engine vehicle, there would be no going back to the combustion engine.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BrHXdM9f13k  - Electric drag car

What, therefore, would be the geopolitical repercussions of a sudden drop in the price of oil?

Re: Swift depreciation of oil

Lemme start with the most obvious:

Those dictators in the Middle East which have propped up their regimes based upon oil prices would be doomed.  Not necessarily immediately, though.  In the cases of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and others, the nations built up reserves called oil stabilization funds... giant backup currency reserves in case the price of oil falls.

This isn't the universal case... before the Iranian election, it was well known that the Iranian government pretty much squandered its OSF before the '08 recession started, putting it in a financial crisis after the fact.  Venezuela is also a culprit here.


But anyway... depending on the size of these funds, the countries in question will have a short timeframe... and I mean short... to begin economic reforms.  This would involve establishing some kind of non-oil industry.

The big problem here is that many of these nations will require a big weaning off from taxes.  Many of these people, such as in Iran, are used to paying absolutely no taxes, and having significant social services paid, largely by oil money.  Iran has probably one of the most extensive social service programs in the world, and it can afford them, due to the oil.

Once oil is no longer an issue... these countries are forced to undergo financial reforms unlike anything we've seen in the Western world.  In many cases, taxes would become a largely new thing (in the Iranian example, the government actually tried to institute a very small business tax, but the banking industry lodged a huge protest).

In the US, the nation underwent a revolution against Britain over an extremely small tax meant to pay for its military.  In many of these countries, its people are going to have to sacrifice free education, free health care, and pay taxes.  I would expect social upheaval... easily.

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Re: Swift depreciation of oil

Remember, in Iran, we actually did see a microcosm of what xeno is speaking of, in 2008.  I think I posted about this earlier.

When the financial crisis started, Iran made a big deal about how its economy would weather the storm.  One month later, oil prices dropped from $80 a barrel to as low as $60 per barrel, and continued to decline.  As was mentioned before, Iran was put in a financial crisis, and was forced to cut subsidies and raise taxes.

The result?  The following year, the Iranian election was largely focused on the economic issues mentioned previously.  The protests didn't succeed in exacting political change, but they serve as a case study.

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Re: Swift depreciation of oil

Zarf, but what would happen at the international level?  That is, how would these nation states deal with the resulting social upheaval, and, moreover, how would that affect the West, China, etc..

5 (edited by Godwin's Law 27-May-2011 07:06:52)

Re: Swift depreciation of oil

I honestly don't think that much... other than a strategic realignment.  Though I could very easily be wrong, and wouldn't doubt it.  This is an extremely preliminary thought into the matter.


With the removal of oil's strategic importance, the Middle East is no longer such an economically strategic point.  As a result, the West will be much less inclined to support dictators in the region.

In terms of the economics in the West, I'd say it's a relatively peaceful transition.  Oil importers don't really give a crap about oil, except that it's an energy source.  If there's another energy source which does the same thing, the market economy should take care of the transition itself.  For those which are going to undergo a slower transition (people who can't necessarily afford to buy a new car), the oil price decline will relieve the strain on them for a while.

I may have more to add later... this is relatively fragmented because I'd rather read what others think, for now, at least.  tongue

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Re: Swift depreciation of oil

If suddenly the Middle East were to become less of an economic power center, I don't think anyone can really even venture a guess as to how it would affect international geo-politics.  There are too many variables to consider in this regard:

1.  to what extent and how quickly would said oil-export reliant economies be able to adjust to their new economic paradigms
2.  to what extent and for how long would said oil-export reliant economies experience dysfunctional conflict either domestic or regional
3.  to what extent would they find productive uses of their remaining supplies of oil resources (either for domestic production or international export)
4.  to what extent said countries could maintain good diplomatic and trade relations without their previous clout based on their oil reserves.
5...?

Care to help me brainstorm more, Zarf?

Re: Swift depreciation of oil

maybe I'm not adding much to the discussion but I think its highly unlikely oil will decrease in price as demand is almost guaranteed and supply will lower next decade.

but to answer the question:
"What would happen if there was a swift and sudden depreciation in the price of oil?"
If oil gets cheaper, people use more. If people use more prices will go up. Even if they don't, by selling more oil they will make up for cheaper prices.

Re: Swift depreciation of oil

look up the history of Nauru when their natural resources depleted. Thats what will happen to the oil dependent countries.

Yes, you're special. Just like everyone else.

Re: Swift depreciation of oil

yes essentially the globe is a tiny island until we master spacefaring technology. However the problem with those tiny island economies like easter island was that they depleted their resources without realising it and therefor they got hit like a bug on a windshield when the resources were fully depleted. If the past is representative for the future then the human race as a whole will see the resource collapse coming in the nick of time and devote a significant part of its sizeable intellectual and economic potential to developing a solution.

In the case of oil we have plenty of theoretical solutions, it's mostly a matter of establishing which are the most promising and of developing them sufficiently to be effective replacements for our oil based energy needs. We'll still need oil for the vast amount of non energy needs that we use oil for, but then we also have vast amounts of bad quality oil from tar sands etc. to keep us going on that front for quite a while. Ultimately we'll either develop an entirely new resource pallet that doesn't require oil to produce it from, or we'll develop synthetic oil. With our present technologies we're capable of developing outstanding quality diamonds, so I'd bet we're also able to produce synthetic oil (although of course it'd be extremely inefficient presently)

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Re: Swift depreciation of oil

the entire world economy is based in some way on oil. or more precisely the cheapness and convenience of the energy provided by oil. so far no other form of technology has shown that it can compete in terms of cost and convenience with oil.

all other forms are either more expensive and less convenient. burning oil and its derivatives is not efficient and is very pollutant. extraction isn't that easy either. but when you way it up oil is cheap and you can use it to power planes, cars, ships, trucks, trains and generators. what else can do the same at a comparable cost? nothing. that's what.

people talk about hydrogen as a potential replacement but it's waay harder to extract than oil and harder to store. result = WAAAAAAAAY more expensive and less convenient. and economies dont like that.

the only time things will change is when oil starts to become so rare that a barrel is like $500 or whatever. when it becomes so expensive to buy that other alternatives start becoming viable.

Buddugoliaeth neu Marwolaeth

Re: Swift depreciation of oil

p.s. I wouldn't want to rely on synthetic oil. the resources put into producing it en masse probably wouldnt be worth it

it's like making batteries. the energy it costs to produce a normal AA battery is far greater than the amount of energy that AA battery will ever release.

Buddugoliaeth neu Marwolaeth

12 (edited by xeno syndicated 30-May-2011 02:58:47)

Re: Swift depreciation of oil

It seems people need some exposition as to why a swift depreciation in the price of oil is a possibility.

In another thread, there was discussion on China's cornering the market of rare earth reserves.  Why are they doing this, I wonder?  It has been proposed it is to move their manufacturers up the supply chain so as to produce and distribute more finished products. 

But another potential reason for their interest in rare earths is that they could be positioning themselves for a coming paradigm shift away from a fossil fuel reliant economy to one based on alternative energy sources.  In particular, an economic distribution system based on electric rather than combustion engines, one which would rely on a new and improved ultra-efficient rechargeable "battery" technology, the production of which would require rare earths.

Electric engine utility trucks for inner-city and electric powered freight trains for inter-city transportation of goods will become the norm in such an economy, and a swift depreciation in the price of oil would result, in my opinion.

(Already today in major Chinese cities, there is a shift away from the use of combustion engines for, I would estimate, as much as 10% of inner-city distribution, mostly by electric bicycle / utility trucks).

13 (edited by East 30-May-2011 13:09:32)

Re: Swift depreciation of oil

yes, it wouldn't make sense for energy since there are going to be much better alternatives (since we're just fantasizing I'll mention say a nuclear fusion for electricity purposes and a hydrogen fueld transport system). However we have a lot more uses for oil in our modern day economy than just energy. IF we ever run out of oil then we COULD consider synthetic oil for that purpose. In this hypothesis I'm not thinking about coal based synthetic oil mind you (which we're capable of producing already at a rather acceptable degree of cost and efficiency - thank you German engineers from WWII), but real oil produced synthetically from scratch with organic material. But before we reach that point we'd have to have depleted the vast amounts of low quality oil from tar sands etc. so it's not a big issue anyway I'm just saying that we could do it (we can make outstanding synthetic diamonds from scratch too).

> EmperorHez wrote:

> p.s. I wouldn't want to rely on synthetic oil. the resources put into producing it en masse probably wouldnt be worth it

it's like making batteries. the energy it costs to produce a normal AA battery is far greater than the amount of energy that AA battery will ever release.


**********

I would say that this strategy has a bit of everything. It's simply nice to have valuable and rare earth minerals which you know are only going to appreciate in value regardless of the reason for this increase. You give a scientist a rare earth element to play with and given time and resources he'll always come up with something that puts this resource to good use. In the short term of course I think it's pretty much a given that China is securing a resource base for its immediate expansion. It's not going to do them much good to own the resources only to have to sell them on to developed countries because they don't have the proper industries to use them themselves! China's immediate interest is to build its own industrial complex that rivals or exceeds any nation on the planet, not to become the new OPEC. Any advantage is of course an advantage they won't frown upon.

Re: Swift depreciation of oilIt seems people need some exposition as to why a swift depreciation in the price of oil is a possibility.

>In another thread, there was discussion on China's cornering the market of rare earth reserves.  Why are they doing this, I wonder?  It has been proposed it is to move their manufacturers up the supply chain so as to produce and distribute more finished products. 

But another potential reason for their interest in rare earths is that they could be positioning themselves for a coming paradigm shift away from a fossil fuel reliant economy to one based on alternative energy sources.  In particular, an economic distribution system based on electric rather than combustion engines, one which would rely on a new and improved ultra-efficient rechargeable "battery" technology, the production of which would require rare earths.

Electric engine utility trucks for inner-city and electric powered freight trains for inter-city transportation of goods will become the norm in such an economy, and a swift depreciation in the price of oil would result, in my opinion.

(Already today in major Chinese cities, there is a shift away from the use of combustion engines for, I would estimate, as much as 10% of inner-city distribution, mostly by electric bicycle / utility trucks).

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Re: Swift depreciation of oil

without reading all the newer posts here, ill say why i beleive that this will never happen, there is obviously only a limited ammount of oil left, now everyone automatically thinks gas when you here oil, but the fact is a large part of it is made into plastics, and we are heavily dependant on plastics, now there would be the gas part left over, but there are still more developing countries that are decades behinds the industrial revolution, and just as china did, they will buy up our outdated tranportation and machines of all sorts that still run on oils. this will continue until a new power source becomes cheap, easy to obtain, and common knowledge to create. in otherwords we will definately run out of the stuff way before we outdate its uses. and with limited supply and sustained demand will come price hikes.

Re: Swift depreciation of oil

even if the price drops, fact is china has a demand that is far greater then thier current supplied feuls, and drop in price will be met with more demand.

Re: Swift depreciation of oil

this guy has got it spot on^^^

as countries develop economically they demand more oil.

Buddugoliaeth neu Marwolaeth

Re: Swift depreciation of oil

agreed as well

Re: Swift depreciation of oil

All I'm saying is there's a chance oil will become obsolete to other sources of energy. New technologies could make alternative sources simply less expensive.  Plastics, too, could become obsolete.  I'm arguing that there is a good chance this will happen, because the trend is to develop environmentally sustainable systems of production in all industries. 

The question is, what are the odds this will happen?

Re: Swift depreciation of oil

To think the switch from fossil fuel ran vehicles to electric ones is not going to happen, would be extremely foolish. As much as the oil industry would detest such a feat, it will happen. When it does, the company that can design, manufacture, and implement the super battery will have benefits that would put oil industry profit margins to shame. Having the patent to that would be not unlike curing cancer.

Modestus Experitus

Arby: A very strict mod, reminds me of a fat redneck who drives a truck around all day with a beer in one hand. I hated this guy at the start, however, I played a round in PW with him where he went as an anonymous player. Our fam got smashed up and everyone pretty much left. Arby stayed around and helped out the remaining family. At the end of the round he revealed himself.... My views on him have changed since. Your a good guy.....

Re: Swift depreciation of oil

but where will the energy for your battery come from?

Re: Swift depreciation of oil

mirrors

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Re: Swift depreciation of oil

The technology to replace oil energy already exists. However they are either extremely expensive or unreliabe (or both). Should individual, corporations and nations be willling to accept short term  higher costs for long term gains then at some distant point the tide oil wil turn.

Re: Swift depreciation of oil

@east:
you're not that ugly tongue

on a more serious note the mirror thing is to costly to produce for now. (if you mean the solar heating system)

Re: Swift depreciation of oil

Silliness.

1.  The only reason there is a market for electric cars is that the government subsidizes them.
2.  Even when buying a car with the tax incentives mentioned above, over the life time of the vehcile you will most likely never recoup the additional cost of the electric vehicle over a similar sized gas/diesel car.
3.  Europe has gas prices twice that of the U.S.  people thier don't buy electric cars, they buy diesel.
4.  Think of how much money the government makes off of taxing fuel, you think they are going to let that golden egg go to rot?
5.  In the U.S most power plants are coal powered.  Even electric cars need something to charge them, if your not running of gas you will essentially be running off coal.  Any idea how much electricity prices while fly through the roof?


Mace hits on something when he said:"The technology to replace oil energy already exists. ... Should individual, corporations and nations be willling to accept short term  higher costs for long term gains then at some distant point the tide oil wil turn.

I think this would be far to costly, "oil" right now isn't fighting back.  A few years back ethanol was supposed to be the big savoir from gas prices here in the United States.  Even with gas prices over $4.50 here and with the government heavily subsidizing it - ethanol couldn't compete with gas and to make matters worse - 1,000's of arces of farm land was basically harvested and turned into this crap, thus driving up the prices of food.  People are grasping at a way to compete with $4.00 gasoline and losing millions if not billions of dollars doing it - all electric cars have been a sales disaster.  Here in the states 40% of all electric or hybrid vehicles sold were bought by the government - not by the public.  If there were a car fairy and he magically made a vehicle that was more practic to buy then $4.00 gas then all it would take is for OPEC to drop the price per barrle down so gas went to $3.50 and that vehicle too would be a sales disaster hmm

25 (edited by Godwin's Law 11-Jun-2011 03:30:48)

Re: Swift depreciation of oil

> BeoWolfe wrote:

> Silliness.

4.  Think of how much money the government makes off of taxing fuel, you think they are going to let that golden egg go to rot?


In the US, we subsidize our oil companies as well... lol!  tongue

EDIT: Explanation: Oil companies were able to get subsidies early on for shipping and other expenses, when oil prices were relatively cheap (making the argument that, although oil was necessary, it was unprofitable for the industry).  Even in 2005, though, the oil companies were saying that they didn't need the subsidies anymore.  Come 2011, however... they've argued that reducing subsidies would drive up the price of oil.

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