Re: The United States credit rating has been downrated

> twosidedeath wrote:

> >>F) Bush inherited a budget surplus from clinton. Obama inherited a huge deficit plus even more expenses with no way around in his term<<

Clinton had the same "fundamentalist opposition" on his nuts keeping him from his liberal schemes, forcing govt to grow at merely the rate of inflation and ending welfare as an entitlement.  Clinton also enjoyed a bubble economy.   Obama took a $500 billion a year deficit and set up a $300 billion a MONTH deficit.  "Helicopter money", remember?  Like hell he has no way out.  He wouldn't want it if you ran for Congress, won, wrote it down, had the House pass it and sent it to him.  Just ask Paul Ryan.


At most, that excuses Obama for year 1's deficit (the bailouts).  Everything beyond that was largely new programs (example: the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act).

true these were designed for long-term results, creating new jobs to stabilize the employement rates and such. but i wouldnt say that this excuses him for 1 year at most. you cant give someone 1 year to fix 8 years of crap.



Before I go into this, please define "8 years of crap" which Obama has so diligently created a $1-2 trillion per year deficit trying to fix.

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Re: The United States credit rating has been downrated

ok lets see...

2000: federal tax revenue: 2.096.916.925
2007: 2.688.946.349       

Rise: 28%
Inflation: about 20% between 2000 and 2007

So far so good. So we got 8% increase in tax income after inflation. Thats equivalent to 215 billion in 2007.

Thus we could credit the 8% rise to the tax cuts Bush made. Now lets compare that to the surplus/deficit in federal budget:
2000: +236 billions, equivalent to 283 billions in 2007 (inflation)
2007: -160 billions
net change: -443 billions
Thus, the tax cuts brought in 228 billion of deficit, when waging the the increase in tax revenue against the budget +/- change. Even if we exclude the war costs (like 180 billions in 2007), the tax cuts still made a net loss of 48 billions in 2007.

Yes, you're special. Just like everyone else.

28 (edited by Godwin's Law 20-Apr-2011 21:52:46)

Re: The United States credit rating has been downrated

Could you post a link to those sources?  Interesting evaluation, and I'd like to look into it a bit more...

Aside from that, though, you're forgetting one big Bush policy: Medicare Reform.

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29 (edited by [Stupid] Arachnophobia 20-Apr-2011 22:13:05)

Re: The United States credit rating has been downrated

tax revenue and budget +/- should be obvious
usinflationcalculator.com gave me 20.4% inflation rate for 2000-2007
I estimated the war costs in 2007 from this graphic: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:U.S._Defense_Spending_Trends.png , the red part.

Note: My calculations are based on the assumption, that there would have been no economic growth above inflation rate without the tax cuts. This is the ultimate concession IN FAVOUR of the tax cuts. And still it turned out with a minus.

Yes, you're special. Just like everyone else.

Re: The United States credit rating has been downrated

> [Stupid] Arachnophobia wrote:

> tax revenue and budget +/- should be obvious
usinflationcalculator.com gave me 20.4% inflation rate for 2000-2007
I estimated the war costs in 2007 from this graphics: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:U.S._Defense_Spending_Trends.png, the red part.

Note: My calculations are based on the assumption, that there would have been no economic growth above inflation rate without the tax cuts. This is the ultimate concession IN FAVOUR of the tax cuts. And still it turned out with a minus.


There's a difference between the two assumptions.  The assumption I cite (that external budget increases aren't factored in) can be identified and removed from the equation.  I'd ask anyone reading this to tell their list of budget items which were increased during this time, which are in need of being removed from the equation.

The economic growth issue, however, can't easily be eliminated because we don't know what growth would look like without the cuts.  At most, we can get our final, fuzzy number, then guess from there...

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31 (edited by [Stupid] Arachnophobia 20-Apr-2011 22:34:55)

Re: The United States credit rating has been downrated

Bush medicare reform costs 400 billion over 10 years. Average: 40 billion. So lets exclude that too. The tax cuts still have -8 billion going for them, still using the best assumptions in favour for the tax cuts.

Yes, you're special. Just like everyone else.

Re: The United States credit rating has been downrated

Btw, I have in no way included any revenue benefits that are due to war spending and bush medicare, as government spending comes back as taxes, in parts. (For example, government builds a bridge, pays 1 million in wages for the workers, so you could assume from that 1 million government spending, 100k (10%) comes back due to income taxes (the 10% is just any number to illustrate the point). Same goes for war spending, as buying a jet creates revenue for the american company, from which that company pays taxes).

Yes, you're special. Just like everyone else.

33 (edited by Godwin's Law 20-Apr-2011 22:48:38)

Re: The United States credit rating has been downrated

Okay, that's fair.  If there are other budget items which need to be taken into account, I'll defer to others to bring those up (we also haven't taken into account budget cuts by the Bush administration).

I'll concede, then, based on Arachnophobia's evidence, that the Bush tax cuts didn't provide a net tax revenue generation (with the stipulation that if a more purified number, factoring in budget changes occurring, can be established, I'll defer to that model).  That was fun!  Oh, and nice job on the evidence gathering/analysis, something we don't too often see here.  tongue

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Re: The United States credit rating has been downrated

Yay progress!

Not many people know this, but I own the first radio in Springfield. Not much on the air then, just Edison reciting the alphabet over and over. "A" he'd say; then "B." "C" would usually follow...

Re: The United States credit rating has been downrated

lol you dont need a majority to philibuster... ya only need one person hmm

Re: The United States credit rating has been downrated

> twosidedeath wrote:

> lol you dont need a majority to philibuster... ya only need one person hmm


A 60-vote majority in the Senate can vote on a cloture, limiting debate to 24 more hours before a vote.  The Dems had 60 votes as of 2008, and could have then blocked a filibuster.

Short answer... you're wrong.

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Re: The United States credit rating has been downrated

hah by no means am i wrong. yes they could have been more assertive but they are still able to filibuster. only after the majority decides to vote on bringing the debate to an end and that vote passes then they still get 24 hours to debate. so how does that make me wrong? it doesnt

Re: The United States credit rating has been downrated

this also assumes that all democrats or even republics vote in unison. this rarely happens and we have all heard of them blue dogs so having exactly 60. when the previous majority was only 51 is still barely a supermajority

Re: The United States credit rating has been downrated

The supermajority was there, yes. But it was just barely a supermajority. Only 1 democratic senator would have had to vote against the party line to break it. And a tax raise isnt that uncontroversial, to ensure that all would vote for the filibuster break. Hell, even the health care reform was barely passed. Raising taxes would have most likely cost some of the senators their seats in the heated political sphere, means a big incentive not to break the filibuster for atleast a few of the democratic senators.

Yes, you're special. Just like everyone else.

Re: The United States credit rating has been downrated

> twosidedeath wrote:

> hah by no means am i wrong. yes they could have been more assertive but they are still able to filibuster. only after the majority decides to vote on bringing the debate to an end and that vote passes then they still get 24 hours to debate. so how does that make me wrong? it doesnt



One guy stands up to talk forever.  The Senate votes to end the debate after 24 hours.  There's a vote after 24 hours.  The majority wins.  Filibuster fails.  We're done.

As for the question of whether that was a solid majority... if it's not a solid majority, then it means you can't blame it squarely on any party, can you?  smile

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Re: The United States credit rating has been downrated

"Thus we could credit the 8% rise to the tax cuts Bush made. Now lets compare that to the surplus/deficit in federal budget:
2000: +236 billions, equivalent to 283 billions in 2007 (inflation)
2007: -160 billions
net change: -443 billions
Thus, the tax cuts brought in 228 billion of deficit, when waging the the increase in tax revenue against the budget +/- change. Even if we exclude the war costs (like 180 billions in 2007), the tax cuts still made a net loss of 48 billions in 2007."

Wrong. 

For one thing, the revenues in 2007, or any other year, ARE NOT THE CUMULATIVE RESULT of 7 years of a trend.  They are the result of the previous 12 months economic activity. 

For another thing, the deficit in every given year is largely a deliberate choice by Congress and the President to spend a whole lot more than they take in. The "net" results come after Congress makes a deliberate choice to have a spree.  It is NOT the unconscious result of a national economy.

So it is not proof of a "market force' either.  It proves tehy didn't really care about running a deficit every year.  It doesn't prove an axiom of macroeconomics.

To try and develop some "law" at work you could look longer than 30 years of Gross receipts, or revenues.
I think the Congress publishes records of quarterly outlay and revenue for the past 32 years.  I read that in the 1990s and saw that in years when the economy grew, revenues grew, and when the economic stuttered, so did revenues.  Taxes are due on gains, not losses.

That's not really a plan, it's the aggregate of millions of economic choices by a few hundred million actors.   

BTW DOD costs were a lot more than $180 billion in 2007.

The core joke of Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy is that of course no civilization would develop personal computers with instant remote database recovery, and then waste this technology to find good drinks.
Steve Jobs has ruined this joke.

Re: The United States credit rating has been downrated

US credit rating is gone, you are a wreck
tears on your pillow, you just want it back

nanananana nana nanananana nana

qsudifhkqsdhfmsklfhjqmlsdfhjqkmsldfhjmqklsfhmqlsfhjqmsklfhqmskjdfhqsfq
sdffdgjfhjdfhgjhsfsdfqgsbsthzgflqkcgjhkgfjnbkmzghkmqrghqmskdghqkmsghnvhdf
qmkjghqmksdjqlskhqkmsdhqmskfhjqmskjdfhqkmsdfjhqmskfhjqkmsjdfhqkm
sjfhqkmsjfhqkmsjfhkqmjsfhqksdjmfhqksjfhqskjdfhnbwfjgqreutyhaerithgfqsd
kjnqsdfqsdfqsdfmkjqhgmkjnqsgkjmhzdflmghjsmdlghjsmdkghmqksdjghq

Re: The United States credit rating has been downrated

printing money to buy your own bonds looks unsustainable to me
but what do i know.i don't hold a ph.d like bernanke.

That's how fast it takes for a guy to get whacked

Re: The United States credit rating has been downrated

we buy bonds from the "federal reserve" these bonds are in effect money. it even says on a dollar its a bond worth "#". so really there isnt actual money in rotation. just fabricated bonds written up by the banks.

i think the real killer is the fractional reserve system which in effect multiplies the currency in rotation by about 900% which would be at the root of many bubble's collapsing as it has obvious liquidation problems since 90% of the money in rotation doesn't exist by proper bond methods. if ya can call them proper. america has already filed bankrupcy in the past for ya'll who don't know. it doesn't destroy the country lol just causes a lot of problems. thats back whenthe central bank was dissolved. and  then later it was brought back in the privately owned "federal bank"

but alas theres no way of changing the path we are on, no one will willingly throw away all thier cash until its completely worthless and we have to start all over again. hey while your at it hit the reset button on your nintendo.

and goodwin completely ignores Arachnophobia's  comment and continues  to be short sighted tongue. ill concede so you can be happy with your opinions.

45 (edited by Godwin's Law 21-Apr-2011 16:05:00)

Re: The United States credit rating has been downrated

> twosidedeath wrote:

> and goodwin completely ignores Arachnophobia's  comment and continues  to be short sighted tongue. ill concede so you can be happy with your opinions.


Last post.  Last sentence.

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Re: The United States credit rating has been downrated

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2010/11/13/weekinreview/deficits-graphic.html?choices=d2jld8r4
I fixed the budget, you can thank me later

Not many people know this, but I own the first radio in Springfield. Not much on the air then, just Edison reciting the alphabet over and over. "A" he'd say; then "B." "C" would usually follow...

Re: The United States credit rating has been downrated

"printing money to buy your own bonds looks unsustainable to me
but what do i know.i don't hold a ph.d like bernanke."

Yeah USA is a ponzi scheme.  they say that we're not printing money, Federal Reserve always had it...BUT...they've blown over $2 Trillion, I see no way in an economy that was less than $10 trillion a year until about 1999, that they could sock away $2 trillion in less than 100 years.  AND they won't say how much they have in this magic reserve.
If GE or chrysler was doing what bernanke was doing, buying bonds low so the Treasury didn't have to raise the rate, it would be criminal - a breach of fiduciary duty to the shareholders, for refusing to wait it out and get the higher price like 99.9999% of the investors on planet earth.  But Bernanke doesn't have shareholders, he's just a public servant so he has, uh, no duties..er...yeah

we're con men and when I say that I'm accused of treason and not believing in America.  America is so awesomes we will pay our debts! We will! just because nobdoy knows how that will happen, doesn't mean America won't think of something!  Maybe we will yell "BIIIRRRRD GOOOOOOOOO!" and fire Phoenix Missile on the hatas, what a country

The core joke of Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy is that of course no civilization would develop personal computers with instant remote database recovery, and then waste this technology to find good drinks.
Steve Jobs has ruined this joke.

Re: The United States credit rating has been downrated

Oh noes the USA is Doomed !!!! All run to Teh Motherland :: Russia !!!!

49 (edited by Little Paul 21-Apr-2011 19:46:56)

Re: The United States credit rating has been downrated

@arocalex:
thats exactly the joke. Wheter you're left or right wing, everyone can see how you can prevent a huge deficit except for f

Re: The United States credit rating has been downrated

@Justinian, I know, I was just saying... >_<

AOD~EOD~TDO~