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Topic: Afghanistan War- Winnable or not?

Is the war in Afghanistan winnable or not?

so far ISAF forces have been there 9 years now. If anything the violence has been getting worse over the last couple of years.

US losses so far exceed 1200. UK losses exceed 330. the bulk of which have happened over the last 2 years. Afghan security losses number in the thousands and the numbers of wounded far exceed those killed.

We've seen the US follow a surge style strategy, putting tens of thousands of more combat boots on the ground in order to pacifty the Taliban and extend the amount of ISAF controlled territory. We've seen a rise in drone strikes against high ranking Taliban figures, the effect of which has yet to be determined.

Problems for ISAF include geography. Afghanistan is 3x the size of the United Kingdom (Helmand Province alone is the size of Wales), Afghanistan is very mountainous, rugged & with poor transportation links. Afghanistan is divided amongst numerous ethnic and linguistic groups. The borders with Pakistan, Iran & the Former Soviet Republics to the north provide easy access for terrorist weapons to flood into the country. Afghanistan is not centralized and does not have a central goverment with widespread control. Afghanistan has a long history of resisting invaders. Afghanistan successively held the British Empire at bay in 3 separate wars. Afghanistan also managed to force the Soviet Union into a humiliating withdrawal in 1989.

is this war winnable?

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Re: Afghanistan War- Winnable or not?

Yes.

Are we fighting to win? No.

We did not occupy Germany in 1945 and worry about whether our footprint was too big, or worry about shelling too close to civilians, or worry about causing our German allies to lose credibility.

We stomped the shit out of the country, until it could not feed itself without our utmost effort to help, and anyboy who resisted was struck down.

It is quite possible that we have not killed enough Afghans for them to despair of winning.   We almost did it in Vietnam and we ran into the same crisis of spirit.  We do not want to crush Afghanistan.  We do not want to crush Iran and Pakistan for helping the Taliban.  We are not like that anymore! We do not want to accept that allowing Afghans to rule as the Taliban means American cities are in danger.  We imagine we can invade a country and then seek terms for leaving, and not be hit again. 

The Taliban are fighting to fight.  When we leave they will still fight to control every inch of their country.  they do not want to elevate  it before they break it down further.   They understand the point of conquest and subjugation.  They would rather rule a medieval kingdom of donkeys and horses than accept helicopters and democracy and secular government.They don't mind driving another tenth or third of the country out as refugees. 

Right now, because we are there, they have allies to help kill americans.  When the Americans go, they will make allies of a different sort, helping Al Qaeda again.  Because Al Qaeda brings money and absolutely no challenge to their domestic program of civil war and sharia.

It doesn't take a trillion dollars to break that sort of power.  Sri Lanka just did it on a shoestring. It takes violence, and it takes the same sort of ruthlessness towards enemy populations.  And we'd rather lose than appear uncivilized.  For now.

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Re: Afghanistan War- Winnable or not?

What is winning in Afghanistan?

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Re: Afghanistan War- Winnable or not?

I say it is destroying the Taliban and Al Qaeda and all anti-American factions that would themselves strike, or give safe harbor to those who would strike, at the US or its bases overseas.

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Re: Afghanistan War- Winnable or not?

the Soviet Union didn't exactly tread on eggshells back in the 1980s but by 1985 Gorbachev realised the war was unwinnable and came up with the exit strategy. so the Afghans managed to beat 1 superpower.

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6 Reply by The Yell (edited by The Yell 06-Oct-2010 23:19:15)

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Re: Afghanistan War- Winnable or not?

the USSR wanted a viable puppet state.  Our national interests in the area are negative: the absence of terrorist factions.

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Re: Afghanistan War- Winnable or not?

The Taliban are already negotiating with Karzai as an equal partner. There will be some sort of a deal. NATO can leave and than the Taliban take over the country again, while Karzai and his family can run away with all the billion $ they "organized" in poor Afganistan. The Taliban will rise their regime, after a short period of an ceasefire with the "democratic" government in Kabul, again and everything is as before. Why the ceasefire? So that the US can claim that Afganistan is still a democracy and can alter blame the Taliban for destroying all the US has achieved in the past 9-10 years. It is like the last years in Vietnam.

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8 Reply by avogadro (edited by avogadro 07-Oct-2010 01:50:43)

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Re: Afghanistan War- Winnable or not?

in one year, the US lost 156 police officers on duty in the US and the average for US soldier deaths in afghanistan is 135ish a year. so right now, the US is losing more police officers at home then soldiers policing afghanistan. There will always be deaths, how few must there be before we are satisfied?

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Re: Afghanistan War- Winnable or not?

I understood we went in there to impose political solutions on them

Apparently we are there to cherish and nuture them, grokking and sharing til the time of cusp, so choice is made and there is growth. Waiting, is!

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Re: Afghanistan War- Winnable or not?

"We did not occupy Germany in 1945"


Dammit

Not many people know this, but I own the first radio in Springfield. Not much on the air then, just Edison reciting the alphabet over and over. "A" he'd say; then "B." "C" would usually follow...

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Re: Afghanistan War- Winnable or not?

Winning is simple. Strike fear in to the population. Let them know that there is a price for challenging the American Empire.

I suggest

- Impale defeated Taliban/terrorist combatants and those who harbor them.
- Relocate the civilian population in to the cities or designation camps.
- Use the advantage of mass propaganda to programs the beliefs of civilians, for their own good of course.
- Publicly flog anyone who publicly supports the Taliban/terrorists, and burn all literature that supports them.
- Impale imams and other religious authorities who support radical Islam.

Just a few ideas. But unless we implement them, no we aren't going to win.

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Re: Afghanistan War- Winnable or not?

avogadro- you comparison is flawed because- from 2001-2006 there were hardly any US or NATO casualties in Afghanistan. 600 deaths alone have happened since Obama came to office.

compare the number police officers in USA with number of US troops in A-stan. USA has something like 800k police officers total. number of US troops in A-stan = 80k.

also you are not taking into consideration the number of wounded and the serious nature of those wounds.

I dont know how many US police officers are wounded on duty. id bet a few thousand every year. but how many are blinded? have limbs blown off? have serious head injuries?

when a soldier dies. he is transported home and buried. total cost a few thousand dollars. when a soldier loses a limb, the monetary cost runs into the hundreds of thousands. medical treatment.

ever wondered why landmines only take off a soldiers leg? because a handicapped soldier costs far more resources to his nation than a dead one.

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Re: Afghanistan War- Winnable or not?

"the USSR wanted a viable puppet state.  Our national interests in the area are negative: the absence of terrorist factions."

Isn't that exactly what the USA is doing as well? Of course you want someone in office that listens and sides with you. After all this moving equipment around, you want some long term benefits of it. You call it "installing democracy", but in fact it means "installing a democracy that's kind to us". And that's understandable in every way..

God: Behold ye angels, I have created the ass.. Throughout the ages to come men and women shall grab hold of these and shout my name...

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Re: Afghanistan War- Winnable or not?

I said we weren't playing to win.  We are now seeing the "democratic" gvt selling us out, and supposedly we cant harm it or fight too hard there.  Baloney.

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Re: Afghanistan War- Winnable or not?

> EmperorHez wrote:

> avogadro- you comparison is flawed because- from 2001-2006 there were hardly any US or NATO casualties in Afghanistan. 600 deaths alone have happened since Obama came to office.

compare the number police officers in USA with number of US troops in A-stan. USA has something like 800k police officers total. number of US troops in A-stan = 80k.

also you are not taking into consideration the number of wounded and the serious nature of those wounds.

I dont know how many US police officers are wounded on duty. id bet a few thousand every year. but how many are blinded? have limbs blown off? have serious head injuries?

when a soldier dies. he is transported home and buried. total cost a few thousand dollars. when a soldier loses a limb, the monetary cost runs into the hundreds of thousands. medical treatment.

ever wondered why landmines only take off a soldiers leg? because a handicapped soldier costs far more resources to his nation than a dead one.


i was not arguing that its more dangerous to be a US police officer at Home. I was arguing that there are always going to be deaths to police. how far does it have to drop until its no longer a war?

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Re: Afghanistan War- Winnable or not?

when a soldier dies. he is transported home and buried. total cost a few thousand dollars. when a soldier loses a limb, the monetary cost runs into the hundreds of thousands. medical treatment.

ever wondered why landmines only take off a soldiers leg? because a handicapped soldier costs far more resources to his nation than a dead one.<<

ah well Gates & Obama had the answer to that one

stop giving soldiers free medical care, let them turn to private insurance

but the evil mean right-wingers blocked that too

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Re: Afghanistan War- Winnable or not?

some day they will say "the day has been won!" and the soldiers will leave, but who will have won will be beyond me...

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Re: Afghanistan War- Winnable or not?

Obama didn't do that in Iraq

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Re: Afghanistan War- Winnable or not?

I was talking about the Germans during the battle of pearl harbor, DUUHHHHH X(

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sdffdgjfhjdfhgjhsfsdfqgsbsthzgflqkcgjhkgfjnbkmzghkmqrghqmskdghqkmsghnvhdf
qmkjghqmksdjqlskhqkmsdhqmskfhjqmskjdfhqkmsdfjhqmskfhjqkmsjdfhqkm
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Re: Afghanistan War- Winnable or not?

oooohhhhhhhhh

The core joke of Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy is that of course no civilization would develop personal computers with instant remote database recovery, and then waste this technology to find good drinks.
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