Topic: American imperialism on the decline?

"This," a leading American supporter of President George W Bush wrote in a British newspaper back in February 2003, just before the invasion of Iraq, "is our imperial moment".

He went on to argue that the British had no right to criticise America for doing what they themselves had done so enthusiastically a century before.

But America's imperial moment did not last long. And now, seven years later, the US is criticised for just about everything that happens here.

Opinion is evenly divided between those who are glad to see the Americans go, and those who criticise them for leaving too soon and potentially laying Iraq open to fresh sectarian violence.


It is a pattern that every occupying power becomes used to. America, it seems, cannot do anything right - not even getting out.

Most of the arguments in favour of invading back in 2003 have come to nothing.

Many Iraqis welcomed the overthrow of Saddam Hussein - 50% regarded the invasion as a liberation, according to a BBC poll taken in 2004, while 50% regarded it as an occupation - but nowadays it is hard to find anyone who sees America as Iraq's friend and mentor.

Nor has the overthrow of Saddam Hussein led to a general domino effect towards democracy throughout the Middle East.

On the contrary, America's position in the Middle East has been visibly eroded.

Some of the things done by the American authorities in Iraq, based in the Green Zone in Baghdad, were sober, positive and practical.

Some have become a burden, for instance the constitution the Americans wished on Iraq, which makes it fiendishly hard to create a decent effective government.


And because the Green Zone administration was thrown together in a huge hurry back in 2002-03, overseen by former Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld - a man with no interest in nation-building - some of what was done involved grotesque levels of corruption and mismanagement.


The toppling of Saddam Hussein failed to trigger any domino effect in the Middle East Mr Rumsfeld was sent a careful, conscientious 900-page report by the state department containing detailed plans for the post-invasion period. He reportedly dumped it, unopened, straight into his waste-paper basket.

Iraqis, and some Americans, pile a good deal of the blame for what happened during this period on to Mr Rumsfeld's ally Paul Bremer, the temperamental pro-consul who often seemed unaware of what was going on right under his nose.

Former Vice-President Dick Cheney, when asked by the Saudi foreign minister why the US insisted on going ahead with the invasion, answered: "Because it's do-able."

But the problem began even higher up.

A respected Iraqi dissident, who later became vice-president, has described how shocked he was to find, a few weeks before the invasion, that President Bush seemed wholly unaware that Muslims in Iraq were divided between Shia and Sunni Islam.

American generals seemed to despair of finding a solution to the growing insurgency.


The US forces, contrary to all the basic rules of counter-insurgency, allowed the enemy to attack "Route Irish", the main road between Baghdad airport and the Green Zone, as and when it chose.


British soldiers, used to Northern Ireland, pointed out again and again that occasional nervous sorties in armoured vehicles were not the same as taking control of it.

Their American counterparts took no notice, and the situation grew worse.

It took an expert in counter-terrorism, Gen David Petraeus, to turn the situation around. Like most successful generals, he had luck on his side.

Gen Petraeus understood that insurgencies have a specific life-span, and he was fortunate enough to arrive in Baghdad at the time when the Iraqi insurgency was starting to wind down.

Sunni Muslims were increasingly sick of the violence that Sunni extremists were causing, and he encouraged the growth of Awakening Councils which enabled moderate Sunnis to rise up and deal with both Baathists and supporters of al-Qaeda.

The supply of people willing to become suicide bombers began to dwindle.

Gen Petraeus's tactics turned the tide. At the height of the violence something like 100 people were dying each day across the country from bombings and shootings.

Now the number killed in political violence has dropped to about 10 a day - unacceptable in a more peaceable society, but a great relief here.


Yet many Iraqis fear that with the Americans no longer here in force, and the Iraqi army and police still lacking sufficient training, the violent extremists on both the Sunni and the Shia sides could start fighting again.

Whatever happens here for the next decade, the Americans will get the blame - unless of course Iraq becomes peaceful and prosperous, in which case no-one will thank them.

That is the usual fate of an occupying force.

Vast numbers of people have died, the overwhelming majority of them Iraqi.

Unthinkably large amounts of money have been spent here, and yet Iraq has slipped far down the world's rich list.

Has the United States benefited? It is hard to see how.

As the British learned in the Boer War, and Russia learned by invading Afghanistan, great military powers run big risks by putting their strength to the test against weak-seeming opponents.

America seems to have shrunk as a direct result of its imperial adventure in Iraq.

It will have to work very hard to persuade the rest of the world that it is strong again.

Taken from the BBC

Re: American imperialism on the decline?

>>The toppling of Saddam Hussein failed to trigger any domino effect in the Middle East Mr Rumsfeld was sent a careful, conscientious 900-page report by the state department containing detailed plans for the post-invasion period. He reportedly dumped it, unopened, straight into his waste-paper basket.<<

Good for him.  Our State Dept is the most inept civil service since the Tsarist Army gave up.  How many of your civil servants spy for Cuba for 30 years? 
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE5546CA20090605

America is no longer a superpower.  I would say it is no longer a world power, though it may totter on for another decade or two.  There is still the strong chance that when World War III explodes it will blow up in Central Asia and the USA will not be immediately involved.

The Pax Americana rested on 5 pillars: our population, our technological advantange, our industrial production, our military, and our alliances with all industrialized democracies.  We have thrown away all 5.

Our population is off limits.  We won't even take all volunteers.  The death of 4500 in Iraq has "crippled us". The very notion of a draft, under any circumstances, is  a prelude to civil war. 

We have no technological advantage.  We won't impose one on our kids, who need to grow to screw each other and play handegg and play tambourine. Math is harrrruuddd.

Our industrial production has been sacrificied to globalism.  I understood the benefit of the WTO was that we could scrap the laborious uncertain process of diplomatic resolution of trade disputes for a fair broker.  Now that we won at the WTO, we get to laboriously negotiate a settlement of our judgments...meanwhile the industries that broke the Axis have moved to our "strategic partners", where they will do us no good at all when we have to fight them.

Our regular military was understood to be there, to hold the line, while we activated the reserves, and the recruits would win the war.  Our reserves are now entirely noncombatants and there won't be any wave of recruits.  What we have out there now, is IT.  And we're gonna cut that too.  We proudly will not send too many troops to Afghanistan lest we "swamp" it with our "footprint".  We send fewer troops than the Taliban, we lose more faster, and we won't take territory with firepower.  This will make us beloved and good vibes will sweep the hills free of rocket launchers.  Or something.

As for our alliances...of what value is that, beyond parking lots and docks and airfields?  I'm sure the few who are sent do their best, but any government that sought fuller mobilization in honor of NATO obligations would fall overnight.  The entire NATO contingent in Afghanistan, from a continental alliance of about 400 million people, is less than one division.  And that's straining you.  When it comes to the thought of fighting Russia, you're paralyzed with angst.  You can't even get to China, so forget it.

Under Bush people liked to say America wasn't liked.

I think we are going to see that America won't be tolerated.

The core joke of Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy is that of course no civilization would develop personal computers with instant remote database recovery, and then waste this technology to find good drinks.
Steve Jobs has ruined this joke.

Re: American imperialism on the decline?

oh yeah 6 our nukes.  We won't use them.  We're very sorry we built them, and we hope you won't build them too.

oh yeah 7, our fierce devotion to the Pope

The core joke of Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy is that of course no civilization would develop personal computers with instant remote database recovery, and then waste this technology to find good drinks.
Steve Jobs has ruined this joke.

Re: American imperialism on the decline?

Oh sorry I meant to say I have no feelings either particularly good or bad towards America but I found the article an interesting piece of opinion writing.

I think America may be suffering at the moment the same as all historical super powers have after they have reached their zenith and begin a decline - a refusal to recognise that they are not as powerful as they once were.

I accept that America is still a world power (how could I not really) but no longer is it the super power with the ability to police the world - time will tell if this is a good or a bad thing, but the refusal to accept power has waned can lead you to over stretch itself.

Britain in 1914 was a world super power but its power had declined to the point where it was one of several, by not recognising this fact it commited to a war that in fairness, was no business of hers and lost much of her power - to the point where come 1939 we only had enough power to halt the Nazi advance not push it back.

Rome believed it had enough power and influence to govern all its borders and continue to expand - it didnt and it began the fall and decline as a direct consequence.

Nazi Germany over estimated its military might and believed it could fight an aggressive war on two fronts - this is the only reason they lost world war 2.

A refusal to accept limits ruins even the mightiest of powers - it could ruin America too and to think otherwise is foolish and arrogant.

Re: American imperialism on the decline?

America's power didn't wane. Its people flushed it down the toilet. And demanded more, free welfare toilets.

[I wish I could obey forum rules]

6 (edited by Little Paul 01-Sep-2010 12:18:24)

Re: American imperialism on the decline?

America's power isn't as big as it once was compared to ROW. But for now there is no-one who can really "take it over". The EU is not a solid yet, and has a long way to go. The EU doesn't have enough natural resources. Often people name China as the rising power. But I don't think China can dominate the world next decade. They will grow stronger but the unrest, of which we hear little, is also growing. It all depends on how this internal tensions evolve. Russia has its own problems but has a lot of power because of its natural resources.

Note how the US is also rich on important resources. This alone can prevent them from becoming a minor player if they play it well.

All in all I think The US, EU, China and Russia will be "world leaders" without one really dominating it next 5 to 10 years. Predicting what will happen in 2 or 3 decades is ridiculous.

Re: American imperialism on the decline?

it's gone, you are a wreck
tears on your pillow won't bring it back

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Re: American imperialism on the decline?

It's not as if there's any physical barrier compelling America's decline.  As with Britain and probably Rome and the Mongols, if you looked at them, Americans have independently and socially have decided we're not going to cooperate on a level necessary to sustain the same sort of force projection we had in 1945.  We're just not going to put 50% of the US economy and 3% of our population into a world war, ever.  Won't happen again.  No matter what.  So the geopolitical systems like the UN and all the rest of it based on such a potential force are built on sand.

The core joke of Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy is that of course no civilization would develop personal computers with instant remote database recovery, and then waste this technology to find good drinks.
Steve Jobs has ruined this joke.

Re: American imperialism on the decline?

"We're just not going to put 50% of the US economy and 3% of our population into a world war, ever.  Won't happen again.  No matter what."
...only because of the nukes. Because there will be huge tensions between Russia/US-EU to name one.

Re: American imperialism on the decline?

No, I think that the country would just overthrow a govt that tried to exert that much control to win a war.

The core joke of Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy is that of course no civilization would develop personal computers with instant remote database recovery, and then waste this technology to find good drinks.
Steve Jobs has ruined this joke.

11 (edited by Justinian I 04-Sep-2010 07:11:34)

Re: American imperialism on the decline?

Overthrow the government? Our population is full of weaklings. If we had a military dictator, they would roll over and worship him if that was demanded.

Re: American imperialism on the decline?

> Chris_Balsz wrote:

> No, I think that the country would just overthrow a govt that tried to exert that much control to win a war.


Chris, I think that depends on the type of war. Nations like Iraq, Vietnam and Afghanistan were never able to pose a threat to the USA like the Empire of Japan, the Nazi third Reich or the USSR did.

I wouldn't sell your nation short, it's not th

Je maintiendrai

Re: American imperialism on the decline?

> Justinian I wrote:

> "Overthrow the government? Our population is full of weaklings. If we had a military dictator, they would roll over and worship him if that was demanded."

Isnt it in the constitution that it is the duty of the people to overthrow the government if it no longer represents the will of the people?

Re: American imperialism on the decline?

Gotta disagree Biefstukfriet.  In my lifetime we are become a nation of weaklings.

the 230,000 Bush sent to Kuwait and Saudi in 1991 represented the last gasp of the Cold War Military.  This was a military with hunreds of thousands of troops in active combat divisions, and hundreds of thousands of combat troops in National Guard, "weekend warrior" roles ready to call up for regular service, and hundreds of thousands of combat troops in a Reserve that could be activated.

This is no longer true.  Since the Cold War ended we have a new military with a regular army about half the size.  There are no combatants in the National Guard.  All the National Guard are support troops, MPs and mechanics and missle techs.  The combatants in the Reserve are applied piecemeal into the regular units we have left.

what makes this politically significant is that for the 9 years we have been fighting neither party sees fit to challenge it.  You read that some of our combat units have been serving three or four one-year tours of combat and people shrug.  At a time when we have 10% unemployment and factories are closing, our Army and Marines are using the same guys over and over, and we read complaints that equipment isn't getting to the front lines fast enough.   We hear that we're too badly outnumbered in Afghanistan and this doesn't suggest a return to the 1991 military.

The notion that the size of the US military should be defined by the mission is just shouted down.  It is a fringe idea.  the military is already too darn huge, we're told, and we just have to redefine our expectations to match our broken, worn out military.

Politically this means Russia can do what it likes, China can do what it likes, Iran can do what it likes, Pakistan can do what it likes.  That is not rhetoric.  Russia wants to invade Georgia with 40,000 troops? There is nothing we will do about it, we're overextended.  Iran is building a bomb?  There's nothing we will do about it, we're overextended.  Afghanistan is going to the Taliban? We'll keep fighting for a while, but we have to reduce the violence and then fuzzy-wuzzy will love us.  The striped pants KNOW he can't do it.  That's why the State Dept stopped calling the Taliban "terrorists" in the latest state dept report. That's why Obama wants Karzai to find "moderate" Taliban who we can "negotiate" with.

I think invading a country to get the terms of our withdrawal is fucking insane.  But I am a far-right wacko who doesn't understand that the Taliban are really like us once we see their point of view, and they just want a deal.  They must just want a deal.  The notion that they want to keep fighting a 20 year civil war until everybody in their country is either obedient or dead, is just far-right wacko propaganda that gets in the way of "seeing reality".  Reality is we invaded a country and now we want a deal to go home. That is sane. Bombing the shit out of everything that shoots at us til THEY give up, is far right wing wacko craziness.

There is buzz that China built a missle that can destroy a carrier in one shot.  This is called a "game-changer".  But our carriers have always been vulnerable.  Between May and August 1945 the Japanese destroyed something like 600 US navy ships including some carriers with kamikazes.  We never pretended a swarm of missles or a crafty sub couldn't take out a Nimitz-class carrier.  So what? We could build more than just about anybody, and we'd bomb harder than anybody, and so anybody overtly smiting us by sinking one carrier was due to get wrecked.  Destroying carriers wasn't going to stop us, just slow us down.

But that's the "gamechanger": what we have afloat now, is IT.  Just like Petraeus has to crack the Taliban with what he has now.  Because we would rather lose a war than invest what it takes to win.  And that attitude has to be applied to ALL our committments, including NATO.  If somebody isn't daunted by the American forces in place to defend you RIGHT NOW, you're fucked.  You will not get more.  If we get struck by suprise there will be a real question whether we can afford to fight back.  The answer will be: no.  We need bigger schools and more womens sports and healthy alternatives to McDonalds, and we need to pay bills for homeowners who can't find jobs at the right level of income.

The core joke of Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy is that of course no civilization would develop personal computers with instant remote database recovery, and then waste this technology to find good drinks.
Steve Jobs has ruined this joke.

Re: American imperialism on the decline?

I was actually suprised by the lack of western reaction to the invasion of Georgia - lots of stern words and hints that we might one day think about sanctions.

Yet that is the world we live in, Britain has long since stopped being a super power, heck we are barely holding on to being classed as a power at all in the eyes of the world - brilliant soldiers, just a tiny number of them.

Yet we have a modern Navy, a good RAF, good soldiers and estimated 270 nuclear missiles - the fact that despite this we are not a big player any more speaks wonders about the modern world. The super powers can no longer push smaller powers around - power is balancing out.

Who would win between America and CHina? EU and Russia? The answer is no longer clear however the world would probably never recover from such wars.

America and Britain invaded Afghanistan with hundreds of thousands of troops and enough military hardware to melt the country yet our casualties are rising and we are now withdrawing and talking about putting the Taliban in a coalition government - FFS could you imagine if we had done that with the Nazis? (oh and before anyone says the Taliban aint as bad as the Nazis it is merely because they havent had the equipment to build the 'showers' yet)

N. Korea sank a warship of one of our allies and S. Korea was persuaded not to retaliate by the west as a war would be too costly.

It is murkier in Iran at the moment (as I dont think Nuclear powers have the right to criticize others for wanting Nuclear weapons) but the fact is we had hundreds of thousands of troops by the Iranian border - they still felt they could develop the Nuclear technology with no fear of reprisal - Iraqs military was a joke which is why we were able to win, not because we were mighty. Hell their idea of a defense for Bagdhad was to light fires around the outskirts of the city to scare off the approaching armies - in other words medieval battle tactics!

No country can afford to strut and order others around anymore, no country has the strength to ensure victory in any war it seems these days.

16 (edited by Finaqua 04-Sep-2010 23:35:58)

Re: American imperialism on the decline?

Guys, I know America is struggling but it still has the largest economy in the world by far. Nearly 3 times the country in 2nd and nearly the size of the entire EU. Is it as strong as it once was? No. But I wouldn't say it's not a super power yet nor that is it 'done.' If this recession continues over the next decade then yes America won't be a super power. But I think you guys are jumping the gun a little.

I Love Lamp!

Re: American imperialism on the decline?

it is because we have the capacity, and refuse to use it, that I say we are in decline.

The core joke of Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy is that of course no civilization would develop personal computers with instant remote database recovery, and then waste this technology to find good drinks.
Steve Jobs has ruined this joke.

Re: American imperialism on the decline?

Yeah, that is true Chris.

I Love Lamp!

Re: American imperialism on the decline?

The EU is improving ties within the union, we could possibly end up as a loose collection or the United States of Europe, the economic, military might of such a Union would make it the strongest power, yet in fighting would eventually tear it apart, America is no longer a super power - we will never see another Cuban Missile Crisis as America would likely back down.

China is not yet ready to be called a super power and Russia is too broke.

We all remain powers of a sort, but the age of the super power is passed, imperialism, empires, super powers have all ended - I am not sure what we will get next.

Re: American imperialism on the decline?

A world war starting on the periphery by some jackasses who think they can destroy their opponents before the UN can take notice.  Not that this will fail through the UN; it will explode when their opponent is NOT crushed immediately and they start bringing allies of convenience into it with the promise of illegal and inhumane rewards -- the destruction and dismemberment of a UN member state, or the genocide of a troublesome cross-border ethnic group, or the evacuation of American bases in the area-- the sort of booty that can NEVER come through cooperation with the Western idea of the World Community.

The core joke of Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy is that of course no civilization would develop personal computers with instant remote database recovery, and then waste this technology to find good drinks.
Steve Jobs has ruined this joke.

21 (edited by Finaqua 05-Sep-2010 07:56:54)

Re: American imperialism on the decline?

I disagree Khaz, I think it is still a super power. One that is in a bad recession but still one. People seem to say this every time the U.S. goes into one. I'm an historian and during my research of old newspapers written in the 70's and 80's (for different topics then this) I have come across the same talk of the U.S. no longer being a super power. In the recession of '79 people were saying the same exact thing, even called it "The Great Recession" just like now. They said the same thing about Japan (like they are about china) becoming the super power of the world and the U.S. falling. This is just a natural part of the booms and busts of a free market economy, this recession is nothing new.

Anyway, the European Union is almost as bad off as the U.S. right now. Unemployment rates are almost as high as in the U.S. and they're even worse for the Eurozone 10% compared to the U.S. 9.9%. With debt issues as well.

But I could be wrong and this could be the downfall of the U.S.
If it is then I think it would be interesting to think about what the international world would be like in 2020? 2030?

I Love Lamp!

Re: American imperialism on the decline?

While I think it is a stretch of reason to hold the position that the US is going to be reduced to a second rate power, it is not so much of a stretch to say that the global balance of power is becoming more broadly distributed. In other words, America is one of many powers, rather than its previous position as the undisputed hyper power.

Re: American imperialism on the decline?

> Khaz Modan wrote:

> The EU is improving ties within the union, we could possibly end up as a loose collection or the United States of Europe, the economic, military might of such a Union would make it the strongest power, yet in fighting would eventually tear it apart, America is no longer a super power - we will never see another Cuban Missile Crisis as America would likely back down.

China is not yet ready to be called a super power and Russia is too broke.

We all remain powers of a sort, but the age of the super power is passed, imperialism, empires, super powers have all ended - I am not sure what we will get next.


The EU powerfull? We have numbers on our side, but that's it. Germany's constitution prevents it from being usefull, the eastern states still use communist military hardware and are so corrupt they put S.A. banana republics to shame. The Scandinavian nations are pacifists (except Denmark). So what are we left with? The usual old world players.

Je maintiendrai

24 (edited by Little Paul 05-Sep-2010 09:43:58)

Re: American imperialism on the decline?

"In other words, America is one of many powers, rather than its previous position as the undisputed hyper power."
I agree with that.

@bief:
The EU is economically powerful, can defend itself, and has nukes. That is enough to grow strong in a short time period if need be. But we are dependent on energy coming from Russia. It will be a matter of how unified we really are to find a solution to this problems. Plus we don't know yet how EU will climb out of the current recession , if it does that is.

25 (edited by BiefstukFriet 05-Sep-2010 10:28:59)

Re: American imperialism on the decline?

How would the EU defend itself Paul? The nations with a a reasonable response rate are all situated in the Western part of the Union. Nukes are pass

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