Topic: The Euro will be Gone Soon

I make my official prediction on this.

Why do I say the Euro is gone soon (not the Union, just the currency mind you)?


Well because simple economics.


When a nation has to much debt, typically its currency ends up, for one reason or another, devalued. When this happens exports go up, employment goes up, and the nation gets more tax revenue to pay its debt with, though that debt has lost a lot of value along the way.

Such events happen.


But not with a single currency for many nations. Then the great nations balance the crappy nations for the value of the currency.

Thus why Greece has killed the Euro's future.

They need their own currency to survive.

Germany will realize they could increase their value a lot...

Then everything crashes quickly.

The Euro is doomed. Say goodbye now, remove investments in it, and kiss it one last time.

Everything bad in the economy is now Obama's fault. Every job lost, all the debt, all the lost retirement funds. All Obama. Are you happy now? We all get to blame Obama!
Kemp currently not being responded to until he makes CONCISE posts.
Avogardo and Noir ignored by me for life so people know why I do not respond to them. (Informational)

Re: The Euro will be Gone Soon

The recently developped option to buy debt at cheaper rates by piggybacking on the good ratings of strong Euro members like Germany eases the strain on nations like Greece, while it would be easier for Greece to inflate its debt away investors nowadays are much more savvy and will consider big inflation policies for what they are, a thinly veiled form of default.

I think on the whole Greece is pretty well off with the euro, given that they have a huge tourism industry and a pretty weak industry. Devaluation/inflation of their hypothetical national currency would mean less tourism and more expensive imports.

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Re: The Euro will be Gone Soon

but it won't just be Greece, and wtih the US hell bent on maximizing debt as the best way to spur the economy, those dollars aren't going to help as much.

The core joke of Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy is that of course no civilization would develop personal computers with instant remote database recovery, and then waste this technology to find good drinks.
Steve Jobs has ruined this joke.

Re: The Euro will be Gone Soon

You have predicted many a thing in the history of the forum, and i don't think a single one ever came true.

NEE NAW NEE NAW

Primo

Re: The Euro will be Gone Soon

This crisis is, in a way, a good thing for the system behind the Euro. It gets a thorough test and the result will be a stronger system. I don't see the Euro disappear. In the worst case, some countries will be thrown out of it, but I don't see it happen.

God: Behold ye angels, I have created the ass.. Throughout the ages to come men and women shall grab hold of these and shout my name...

Re: The Euro will be Gone Soon

Mildly stronger. Mind you, any real chances for improvement will be killed off for the sake of compromise.

Je maintiendrai

Re: The Euro will be Gone Soon

You have predicted many a thing in the history of the forum, and i don't think a single one ever came true.<<

We appear to have bombed the shit out of the "resistance" in Iraq.  Whether its democratic government screws itself is another thing.

The core joke of Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy is that of course no civilization would develop personal computers with instant remote database recovery, and then waste this technology to find good drinks.
Steve Jobs has ruined this joke.

Re: The Euro will be Gone Soon

Where i am from we got the euro in 2002. - all prices got recalculated to euro prices.

The euro has made everything alot more expensive. Food has dubbled/almost tripled in prices from our past currency.

if my country goes back to their old currency i dont see the prices go down.
i doubt people will buy alot of it when they see the prices.


Going back to the old currency might be really bad for a country to do so.

Re: The Euro will be Gone Soon

Let's see predictions recently

Oh yeah, I said Arlen Spector was gone. He lost after that. I also said Acolyte would disappear after I called him on his ideas in a challenge. He ain't been back since.

Other predictions include Iraq, Obama (dozens there) [trolling]

Everything bad in the economy is now Obama's fault. Every job lost, all the debt, all the lost retirement funds. All Obama. Are you happy now? We all get to blame Obama!
Kemp currently not being responded to until he makes CONCISE posts.
Avogardo and Noir ignored by me for life so people know why I do not respond to them. (Informational)

Re: The Euro will be Gone Soon

Explain, in simple terms, why a single currency can work in the USA and not the EU.

"So, it's defeat for you, is it? Someday I must meet a similar fate..."

Re: The Euro will be Gone Soon

Because if one State fails, no businesses will go there.

If one nation fails, the businesses cannot as easily change location.

Take Rolls Royce for example. If they quit manufactoring in England to goto Spain... it destroys them.

If Ford closes a plant in Tennessee but opens one in Texas... no harm is done.

But if they move all production to Mexico then they are fried.


National identification is a huge factor.


Not for some, admittedly, but you are faced with national identity.

The Germans will speak German 200 years from now, the Italians will speak Italian, and the Spainards will speak Spanish. The Eiffel Tower will be a French national treasure, the Vatican will be known to be an Italian thing, and then Greece will have their columns.

It will not be a single nation, it will not be a single language, it will not be able to keep a single currency.

Everything bad in the economy is now Obama's fault. Every job lost, all the debt, all the lost retirement funds. All Obama. Are you happy now? We all get to blame Obama!
Kemp currently not being responded to until he makes CONCISE posts.
Avogardo and Noir ignored by me for life so people know why I do not respond to them. (Informational)

Re: The Euro will be Gone Soon

> Einstein wrote:
> Because if one State fails, no businesses will go there. <

Define state failure. How is this result any different than from country failure.


> If one nation fails, the businesses cannot as easily change location. <

MG Rover, now made all over Europe, not in UK.
Been watching Pontiac Coil slowly die since 2001, their European site is in Administration, all thanks to one Chinese company kicking their arse at seemingly every turn. Why is the european site still there? Cannot easily change location.


> Take Rolls Royce for example. If they quit manufacturing in England to goto Spain... it destroys them. <

See above, switch MG for RR.


> If Ford closes a plant in Tennessee but opens one in Texas... no harm is done. <

Oh I'm sure YOU could find a mistake.


> But if they move all production to Mexico then they are fried. <

So like when we're screwed if things leave the EU, you're screwed if things leave the US?


> National identification is a huge factor. <

Only the UK has an ID crisis, and that is mostly to do with our kids getting all of their behaviours, everything theyn know, from American TV shows (the effects of which even Americans worry about).
Not that the USA has an identity: Large groups of immigrants funnelled into ghettoes all silently agreeing to practice voluntary apartheid for 200 years, causing them to be more like the "olde country" than the olde country.


> Not for some, admittedly, but you are faced with national identity. <

Meh... I blame the movie industry...


> The Germans will speak German 200 years from now, the Italians will speak Italian, and the Spainards will speak Spanish. The Eiffel Tower will be a French national treasure, the Vatican will be known to be an Italian thing, and then Greece will have their columns. <

Ohh I know where this is going...


> It will not be a single nation, it will not be a single language, it will not be able to keep a single currency. <

  Just because you somehow managed to warp your Union into one bloated mass of a nation that resembles none of its origins it does not follow that we want to do the same. In fact your disaffected "Union" serves as a lesson to us in that respect.
  Just because you somehow managed to force your union to only use one language it does not follow that we will do the same. Actually we don't want to, none of us, not even me; I speak both French and English (badly) and because of this I can "communicate" anywhere west of Berlin.
"Defense de fumer? C'est un taverne! Encoul

"So, it's defeat for you, is it? Someday I must meet a similar fate..."

Re: The Euro will be Gone Soon

"Other predictions include Iraq, Obama (dozens there)"

If that's a prediction, you'll all be stunned when my predictions of more trouble in th Gaza strip will happen! Fear my insight in the future!

"It will not be a single nation, it will not be a single language, it will not be able to keep a single currency."

I thought 19th century nationstates and nationalism faded away mostly by now. It's bunk and it's not the only option for a state. Not the language is important, but the common goal. That's what the US always stood for..

God: Behold ye angels, I have created the ass.. Throughout the ages to come men and women shall grab hold of these and shout my name...

Re: The Euro will be Gone Soon

Christ,

Especially a Belgian should understand that nationalism/regionalism is still alive and kicking.

Je maintiendrai

Re: The Euro will be Gone Soon

The correct term of that is regionalism, BiefstukFriet. There are some differences between the two. You even see it in the so called great Nationstates.

God: Behold ye angels, I have created the ass.. Throughout the ages to come men and women shall grab hold of these and shout my name...

Re: The Euro will be Gone Soon

I seem to recall you predicting the EU would be gone within 2 months....like half a year ago.

I also seem to recall you predicting civil war was imminent in the USA...months ago.

etc. etc. etc.

either way, even if people wanted to drop the euro, i think the sheer cost of this operation is reason enough not to do it.

NEE NAW NEE NAW

Primo

Re: The Euro will be Gone Soon

> Commander Christ wrote:

> The correct term of that is regionalism, BiefstukFriet. There are some differences between the two. You even see it in the so called great Nationstates.


True, but if Flanders ever leaves Belgium, then that regionalism will automatically become Nationalism. Your neighbour up North is experiencing spikes in nationalism.

Je maintiendrai

Re: The Euro will be Gone Soon

Not really. The pro-flemish feeling is more of a discontent with several things going wrong within the Belgian state and fear of a globalising world (the EU for example).
That last part is essential to Regionalism: fear and discontent of the politically and economically globalising world. These new Nationalistic tendencies in the Netherlands are, because of that, regionalism as well.

Nationalism was a similar sense of union (but usually different and larger groups), but fueled by totally different ideas.

God: Behold ye angels, I have created the ass.. Throughout the ages to come men and women shall grab hold of these and shout my name...

Re: The Euro will be Gone Soon

Primo the United States is on eggshells.


Goto any US forum now, and you find talk of succession, revloution, civil war, and civil disobedience.

Goto any bar you want here, someone is talking about it.

I understand your not from here, but I will say... the clock is the only remaining factor.


No one on the right has a doubt of if, only when remains.



As for the EU Prediction. I believe it was 6 months after formation of the EU that I said the EU would not last (I do not remember a time frame) where I quoted Englands decision to not use the currency (smart move) and the Turkey issues. I think the clogs issue was up then also.

Everything bad in the economy is now Obama's fault. Every job lost, all the debt, all the lost retirement funds. All Obama. Are you happy now? We all get to blame Obama!
Kemp currently not being responded to until he makes CONCISE posts.
Avogardo and Noir ignored by me for life so people know why I do not respond to them. (Informational)

Re: The Euro will be Gone Soon

Wait, there is something wrong with our cloggs? yikes

Je maintiendrai

Re: The Euro will be Gone Soon

People will always complain about their government, doesn't mean they will revolt; I highly doubt a couple of tea party folks spread across the country would succeed in any kind of armed struggle against the US government. If there was any true unrest the markets would have already responded to it at the first hint and the dollar wouldn't be as strong as it is. I've been to the US 3 months ago and there wasn't any type of trouble neither in the east coast nor the west coast.

The EU was founded in 1992 I believe, imperial conflict forum wasn't around back then

National identity might be important for some industries (you're indeed not going to outsource french wine production to say spain) but on the whole it is not important. It doesn't matter where nestle makes its cocoa milk. Companies will follow the road of least resistance to the biggest bottom line. If that means moving from one country to another they will do it. There might be public pressure but I don't think it will be much higher than in the US for most industries. I suspect the consumers of California would be pissed too if one of their businesses moves to Florida - see it wouldn't be that they moved to Florida, but that they moved at all. The big problem with the eurozone economy other than much more stiffling labour legislation protecting the workers is the huge lack of employee mobility. In the US many people would be willing to move from Idaho to New York like it's just across the street. In Europe that is not the case. People would be willing to work just across the border if they happen to live near the border but few natives would move from say Essen to say Paris. Such lack of mobility hurts the flexibility of an economy.

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22 (edited by Commander Christ 01-Jun-2010 09:27:16)

Re: The Euro will be Gone Soon

"As for the EU Prediction. I believe it was 6 months after formation of the EU that I said the EU would not last (I do not remember a time frame) where I quoted Englands decision to not use the currency (smart move) and the Turkey issues. I think the clogs issue was up then also."

That's nearly 20 years ago. The Maastricht treaty was in 1992. Are you considering a Nostradamus style of prediciting? If so, then obviously you'll be right. tongue

God: Behold ye angels, I have created the ass.. Throughout the ages to come men and women shall grab hold of these and shout my name...

Re: The Euro will be Gone Soon

I think he means the introduction of the Euro, for Americans that is probably when it all started.

Not many people know this, but I own the first radio in Springfield. Not much on the air then, just Edison reciting the alphabet over and over. "A" he'd say; then "B." "C" would usually follow...

Re: The Euro will be Gone Soon

Well it was the currency, sorry was bed time (I'm sick as any 10 dogs) and I goofed.

Everything bad in the economy is now Obama's fault. Every job lost, all the debt, all the lost retirement funds. All Obama. Are you happy now? We all get to blame Obama!
Kemp currently not being responded to until he makes CONCISE posts.
Avogardo and Noir ignored by me for life so people know why I do not respond to them. (Informational)

Re: The Euro will be Gone Soon

Seriously though, whats wrong with our cloggs!

Je maintiendrai