1 (edited by Tia 29-Mar-2013 04:09:03)

Topic: Mafia 42 - Shaken Not Stirred.

The story

M sat back in her chair gazing at the files strewn about her desk and sighed. Damn 007! Bond was vanished out of sight on some personal vendetta and there was a new crisis that needed to be dealt with. M frequently felt that her title 'M' often meant 'Mommy' when she had to manage the 00 agents.

M depressed a button on her phone, "Moneypenny, get 008 in here on the double."

"Yes ma'am," Moneypenny's calm voice drifted up from the small speaker on the phone.

After a few minutes and a polite rap on the door 008 strode into the room and took the seat opposite M where indicated.

M thumbed a security scanner on the drawer handle of the top drawer in her desk and at the bright chirp of approved access opened the drawer and pulled out a thick folder lavishly adorned in bright red TOP SECRET, CLASSIFIED, and EYES ONLY stamps. Looking at the file a moment she dropped it onto the desk in front of 008 with a thump.

"Your new case, 008. Last week we received word that two nuclear weapons were stolen from a secure base in Russia. We just got news of a rumor that they were taken by agents of SPECTRE. I need you to confirm SPECTRE involvement and take whatever steps are needed to recover the weapons. It goes without saying that whatever SPECTRE is up to needs to be stopped.”

008 took a moment to flip through the folder and crooked an eyebrow at M. “I thought James had first shot on all SPECTER cases?”

“007 is not available at this time, though should he become available I have every intention of sending him in  as well, “ M glared. “Any questions?”

“No ma’am.”

“Very well, 008. Godspeed.”

M watched 008 leave the room and rubbed her temples. This was going to be an interesting case.

************

Ernst Blofeld, SPECTRE Number 1 looked around the boardroom. Numbers 2 through 5 were attentively watching him. Blofeld smiled coldly and pet the cat in his arms.

“Are we ready to move into the next stage of the operation, Number 3?” Blofeld asked quietly.
“24 hours, Number 1. The nuclear weapons are almost in place. There was a slight delay with getting the first one into place. Patrolling naval vessels,” Number 3 replied, looking away from Blofeld.

“Excellent! When the weapons are in place we will start issuing our demands. The world will never be the same when we are through. Dismissed!” Blofeld watched his agents leave. After the last had left and the door was closed a soft but harsh chuckle could be heard filling the room. This was going to be so much fun.


Roles

1 x Godfather (Blofeld)
1 x Mafia Role Blocker (Number 2)
1 x Mafia Jack of All Trades (Number 3)
1 x Mafia Kamikazi (Number 4)
1 x Mafia Un-investigatable (Number 5)


1 x Doctor (Moneypenny)
1 x Cop (008)
1 x Town Roleblocker (007)
1 x Special Role (M)
1 x Town Jack of All Trades (Q)

11 x Townies

What The Roles Do

Number 1: Ernst Blofeld (Godfather)chooses who to kill at night. Mafia kill vote must come from the Godfather. If the Godfather is killed SPECTRE Number 2 replaces Number 1 as Godfather. Godfather responsibilities devolve upon each Mafia member in turn. The Godfather must PM BOTH game moderators with the name of the person being mafia killed each night phase. The Godfather can be healed, investigated, and roleblocked.

Number 2: SPECTRE Number 2 (Mafia Roleblocker) chooses who to roleblock at night. Roleblocker must message BOTH game moderators with the name of the person being roleblocked during the night phase. The Roleblocked role will show up in the story as having been roleblocked. Number 2 cannot target the same person twice in a row with a roleblock.

Number 3: SPECTRE Number 3 (Mafia Jack of All Trades) the mafia jack of all trades has three abilities: Night Kill, Investigate, and Vote Push. Each of these is ONE USE ONLY. During any NIGHT phase, Number 3 may PM BOTH game moderators with the name of someone to be killed or investigated. The kill is in addition to the regular mafia night kill. During the day lynch phase Number 3 may PM BOTH game moderators to use the vote push ability. The person they name gets a second invisible vote for lynching. The person they name does not need to be the person they are openly voting for.

Number 4: If Number 4 (Mafia Kamikazi) is targeted during the day for a lynch the person who Number 4 indicates during the previous night phase will also die with the Mafia Kamikazi. Number 4 is required to submit a name during each night phase to BOTH game moderators as to who will die alongside him in the event that he is lynched. If Number 4 does not submit a name the previous night phase the last valid name submitted will be used.

Number 5: SPECTRE Number 5 is an undercover SPECTRE agent. If investigated this character will come up as a regular townie.

008: 008 is the town cop. Every night phase 008 will investigate someone and learn their identity and role.

Moneypenny: Moneypenny is the town doctor. Every night the doctor will attempt to heal someone. The person targeted for healing will be protected from the normal night mafia kill but not from either of the Jack of All Trades Kills. The same person may not be targeted for healing two nights in a row. The Doctor is allowed to heal herself.

007: 007 is the town roleblocker. Roleblocker must message BOTH game moderators with the name of the person being roleblocked during the night phase. 007 chooses who to roleblock at night. The roleblocked role will show up in the story as having been roleblocked. If 008 is killed and 007 is still alive, 007 assumes the role of Cop and loses the ability to roleblock. 007 cannot target the same person twice in a row with a roleblock.


M: M is the town special role. If 008 is killed and 007 is still alive M will be given a file of all 008’s investigations and the identity of 007. M and 00 will then share information and work together. If M dies before 008 then no information will be passed on to 007 when 007 assumes the role as cop.

Q: Q is the Town Jack of All Trades and has 3 SINGLE USE ABILITIES. These are Investigation, Role Block, and Save. Q must PM BOTH game moderators to use any of these abilities. Role block blocks one nighttime role from occurring, Investigation investigates the role of one person and Save is able to prevent one person from being killed against night votes, day lynches and special role kills. In the event that Q wishes to use the Save during the day phase BOTH game moderators must be PMed before the end of the day phase. A day phase save will save the victim of a lynch.  Q has one additional ability. IF after DAY 3 both Q and 007 are still alive Q gives 007 a one time use KILL that is only usable during NIGHT phase.


Townies: During day phase townies vote to lynch one person.

The Rules:

- The objective of the game is for your faction to be the last standing. In order to do this you must eliminate all members of the opposing faction.

-Mafia is allowed 1 kill each night. They will win if all townies are dead.

- Town wins if they kill all mafia members  with at least one town member left alive. If no one is left alive at end of game SPECTRE (mafia) wins. 

- In the event of a tie in the number of votes at the end of day phase, there will be an extended period of 1 hour for players to change their votes, should they wish to do so; if at the end of the extended period the tie still persists, BOTH players will be lynched; if a player missed the original voting deadline he will NOT be able to cast his vote during the extended period.

- The use of the VOTE PUSH ability must be PM’ed to BOTH game moderators during day phase. IF there is a tie at the end of the day phase(including the vote push in the count for tie), the user of VOTE PUSH may choose to use or change whom they are vote pushing for.  The vote will appear as VOTE PUSH in the final vote count. The vote push will not show in the vote count before end of phase tally or in the event of a tie at said time.

- You cannot miss two votings; should this happen, you will be immediately removed from the game, and lynch will still commence based on voting.

- The voting deadline is just that, a deadline. Day phase will finish at 2:00 GMT, this means that if you vote at 2:00:01 GMT your vote will be excluded. This is irrelevant of whether the game moderators have posted that voting is closed.

- You are NOT allowed to make public the message sent you by the game moderators to tell you your role, either entirely or in part; should this happen you will be removed from the present game and possibly future editions as well. You can share what your information means, but you cannot share exact text.

- Once you're dead, you're dead. Do not talk about the game to still active players, or post in the forum thread. This will be considered an act of influence upon the remaining players, and will get you banned from future games. We all like to have fun, and play by the rules, so please keep that in mind.





Order of Events:
NIGHT PHASE
-Heal
-Special Save
-Mafia Kill
-Mob Special Kill
-Q/007 Special Kill
-Investigation
- Any Rolechanges (Roleblock -> Cop, etc.)

Times:


NIGHT PHASE is 2:00 GMT to 14:00 GMT the next day.
DAY PHASE is 14:00 GMT to 2:00 GMT


*************
Daytime lynch votes are public and to be posted to this forum thread. Sorry for any problems caused.
*************

edits:
-spelling in role list and bolding PM warning in Number3's role.
-time corrections in rule text.
-added admonishments to Number 2 and 007 to message both game moderators during night phase with roleblock.
-added clarifications about RB/Doc roles and REFIXED TIME (hate times)
-added note about daytime phase votes.

2 (edited by Tia 04-Apr-2013 04:41:06)

Re: Mafia 42 - Shaken Not Stirred.

Player List:

1. Torqez - Town
2. Einstein - 008
3. Galeonis - Town
4. Wendy - Q
5. Evilrunt - #3
6. HydroP - Town
7. Genesis - 007
8. RisingDown - Town
9. Remo - Town
10. TBO - #2
11. RB3 - Town
12. Ramza  - Town
13. Keerb - M
14. Poley - Town
15. Oxygen - #1
16. Alundra - Town
17. wiwi - Town
18. Xara - #4
19. Tortoise - Town
20. banksy - Moneypenny
21. Nolio - #5

Re: Mafia 42 - Shaken Not Stirred.

ok

So this is our list

1. Torqez - Town 3 times in a row.
2. Einstein - Town, Admin, Missed Game
3. Galeonis - Missing, Inactive killed (town), Town
4. Wendy - Missing, SK, Town
5. Evilrunt - Town, Town, Mob
6. HydroP - Townie, Town, Admin
7. Genesis - Special Role, Town, Town
8. RisingDown - Town, Mob, Mob
9. Remo - Missed, SK, Doctor
10. TBO - Town, missed, Mafia
11. RB3 - Town, Admin, Special
12. Ramza - Missed, Doc, Mob
13. Keerb - Mob, Mob, Town
14. Poley - sk, town, town
15. Oxygen - town, town, cop
16. Alundra - town(cop), town, town
17. wiwi - NEW
18. Xara, Special Role, Town, Inactive killed (town)
19. Tortoise - NEW
20. banksy - NEW
21. Nolio - mob, cop, town

Looking over this list the most likely to be mafia therefore (statistically speaking) are:
Torqez, Genesis, Oxygen, Alundra, and Xara

The least likely to be mafia are:
RisingDown and Keerb.

Those missing a game could have been anything, so they are harder to judge as are Admins. Could the cop please direct investigations based in part on this information.

My order of worry:
1) Genesis - He has been townie for as long as I can remember, except when he had a special role in my game. His time to be mafia may be upon him.
2) Torqez - Mastermind, and he had 3 rounds as pure townie. His chances of a special role and/or to be mafia are high.
3) Xara - She is the typical stealth player playing a role, dangerous, and likes to be evil. Had the good dog role in my round and 3 townie roles.
4) Oxygen - Dangerous, but less so than the other three above him. His being cop is unlikely to be repeated, and his time to be mafia may be here again.
5) Alundra - She has been town 3 times (and the fallback for town cop in one round), though an amateur she can still be a mafiaoso!

Of the new players... I expect Tortoise to be a calculating individual, Banksy to be a wild card, and wiwi to be a follower somewhere.

Things to watch for:

1) Attacks based upon reputation creating...

2) 2nd votes with no reason

3) 2nd votes with bad reasoning

4) People being very quiet in both chat and in forum.

5) First Lynch gangbang

Everything bad in the economy is now Obama's fault. Every job lost, all the debt, all the lost retirement funds. All Obama. Are you happy now? We all get to blame Obama!
Kemp currently not being responded to until he makes CONCISE posts.
Avogardo and Noir ignored by me for life so people know why I do not respond to them. (Informational)

Re: Mafia 42 - Shaken Not Stirred.

oh and btw that list is not designed to be a lynch order or anything. It is merely an observation.

I will not push that list, as 3 times is hardly a pattern high enough to 'for sure' someone.

Everything bad in the economy is now Obama's fault. Every job lost, all the debt, all the lost retirement funds. All Obama. Are you happy now? We all get to blame Obama!
Kemp currently not being responded to until he makes CONCISE posts.
Avogardo and Noir ignored by me for life so people know why I do not respond to them. (Informational)

Re: Mafia 42 - Shaken Not Stirred.

wow.
statistics really aren't your cup of tea, are they?

NEE NAW NEE NAW

Primo

Re: Mafia 42 - Shaken Not Stirred.

Indeed.  Each game is it's own entity, so chances are equal for everyone.  You can't encompass previous game as statistics for future fames.

It's like Primo said ...but then again, we already knew that wink

Re: Mafia 42 - Shaken Not Stirred.

Einstein wrote:

1. Torqez - Town 3 times in a row.

Also, suprised to see this!  I'm the only one like this yikes  And anyone won't necessarily believe me right now, but I am townie again sad

And I'm quite sure I was townie before the last 3 games too.  I need to check this x( ...wtf x(

Re: Mafia 42 - Shaken Not Stirred.

ffs, homework sad

Mafia 41: 1. Torqez ---------------------------- Killed night 5 by sk ------------- Townie
Mafia 40: 2) Torqez - Killed Night 1, innocent townie killed by Mob (Edwardo)
Mafia 39: 7. Torqez---town, killed by mob special day 5
Mafia 38: 2. Torqez - Gotham Citizen - Killed by Two-Face (Night 3)
Mafia 37: 16. Torqez - [Torqez: You are a mere townie fighting on the side of the Battle-Born clan in favor of the Empire. ]
Mafia 36: 2) Torqez - Ron Weasley (Cop) - Killed by Mafia - Night 1

So, last 5 games, i've been townie.  6th time townie if you believe me when I say i'm townie again.

And the game in Mafia 36, i was cop ...but got killed night 1....

sad

Re: Mafia 42 - Shaken Not Stirred.

Pascals Triangle where binary results can be studied

1 - 1
1 - 2 - 1
1 -3 - 3 -1

This continues

Now if 0 is .75 and 1 is .25 and 0 is left and 1 right

3 games is this

(.75^3) - (.25*.75*.75) - (.25 * .25 * .75) - (.25^3)

This would stand for townie 3 times in a row, 2 times of 3, 1 out of 3, mafia 3 times in a row.

Basic binary math, aka odds calculating, says Torqez had a  23.73946875% to be a townie 5 times in a row and a 17.79785156% chance to be a townie again a 6th time. This is not insurmountable odds, but does weigh against him.


I am recognized by some doctorates for my work in binary statistics, albiet a not profitable study it does prove I can handle statistics.

Everything bad in the economy is now Obama's fault. Every job lost, all the debt, all the lost retirement funds. All Obama. Are you happy now? We all get to blame Obama!
Kemp currently not being responded to until he makes CONCISE posts.
Avogardo and Noir ignored by me for life so people know why I do not respond to them. (Informational)

Re: Mafia 42 - Shaken Not Stirred.

Btw there is a 4.6875% chance, statistically speaking, of keerb or RisingDown being mafia.

Everything bad in the economy is now Obama's fault. Every job lost, all the debt, all the lost retirement funds. All Obama. Are you happy now? We all get to blame Obama!
Kemp currently not being responded to until he makes CONCISE posts.
Avogardo and Noir ignored by me for life so people know why I do not respond to them. (Informational)

Re: Mafia 42 - Shaken Not Stirred.

There's a 100% chance, statistically speaking, that I have not read the entire game layout yet. However I am 99% excited ^_^

and Torqez >_< im a townie again too

thats every game ive been in since i started to join Mafia games sad

- The Galeonis Empire

[00:26] <&Walking_Corpse> mapgen doesn't work right for me
[00:26] <&Galeonis> yeah yeah same with ur penis tongue

Re: Mafia 42 - Shaken Not Stirred.

I've run the numbers.

Using pethagorean theorem, I've come to the following data:

Side A = 73
Side B = pepperoni pizza (12" diameter)
Side C = 92^559%


The only logical conclusion is that I'm 110% mob.

Damn. Facts don't lie. sad



On a serious note, I'm just a townie. Cop/doc/rb, don't waste your night abilities on me. There is a 100% chance I won't live to end of day 3.

Modestus Experitus

Arby: A very strict mod, reminds me of a fat redneck who drives a truck around all day with a beer in one hand. I hated this guy at the start, however, I played a round in PW with him where he went as an anonymous player. Our fam got smashed up and everyone pretty much left. Arby stayed around and helped out the remaining family. At the end of the round he revealed himself.... My views on him have changed since. Your a good guy.....

Re: Mafia 42 - Shaken Not Stirred.

4. Wendy - Missing, SK, Town


err last round i was SK, the round before that I missed cos I was away & the Wild West round I was reg town until deputised, so really not sure which order you were going for there Flint but it wasn't chronological.

& guess what I'm townie again too! tongue

Miss Che Vias-Sprite
Yehes ha sowena whath dhewgh why ha 'gas henath

Be Troll Aware!

14 (edited by [TI] Primo 26-Mar-2013 13:47:04)

Re: Mafia 42 - Shaken Not Stirred.

flint, let me try to explain this to you very carefully.

the assigning of roles has nothing to do what so ever with what role you were last time.
meaning that if you have 20 player in every game, in which 10 players are townie, you will have a 50% chance of being townie in every game.
valid statement: the chance you are a townie in the next 5 games is small: this would be 1/2*1/2*1/2*1/2*1/2 which is 0.03125.
however, the chance for every individual game is still 1 in 2.
so, the chance of Torqez being a townie in this game is: 11/21=0,52380952380952380952380952380952

NEE NAW NEE NAW

Primo

Re: Mafia 42 - Shaken Not Stirred.

I don't know whether a) flint is stupid; b) flint likes getting lynched; or c) flint is the ultimate troll with his fail math. hmm Glad I'm not playing.

Insanity and genius are closely related!
*** Eltie for mod! ***
Failing Lemming of Teachings and Australian Cop Orgies: Gwynedd

Re: Mafia 42 - Shaken Not Stirred.

Statistics: the art of taking irrelevant information and presenting it in a relevant way.

<KT|Away> I am the Trump of IC

Re: Mafia 42 - Shaken Not Stirred.

Need clarification.

Is the GF immune to investigation?

Can doc heal himself?

Can RB target same person twice in a row?

Does Flint actually read what he posts before posting?

Modestus Experitus

Arby: A very strict mod, reminds me of a fat redneck who drives a truck around all day with a beer in one hand. I hated this guy at the start, however, I played a round in PW with him where he went as an anonymous player. Our fam got smashed up and everyone pretty much left. Arby stayed around and helped out the remaining family. At the end of the round he revealed himself.... My views on him have changed since. Your a good guy.....

Re: Mafia 42 - Shaken Not Stirred.

Need clarification.

Is the GF immune to investigation?

Can doc heal himself?

Can RB target same person twice in a row?

Does Flint actually read what he posts before posting?

Modestus Experitus

Arby: A very strict mod, reminds me of a fat redneck who drives a truck around all day with a beer in one hand. I hated this guy at the start, however, I played a round in PW with him where he went as an anonymous player. Our fam got smashed up and everyone pretty much left. Arby stayed around and helped out the remaining family. At the end of the round he revealed himself.... My views on him have changed since. Your a good guy.....

Re: Mafia 42 - Shaken Not Stirred.

Lol Flint always rustling them jimmies!

"Heh heh heh heh heh heh!"

Metrex

Re: Mafia 42 - Shaken Not Stirred.

Arby you're supposed to pm yourself in the other thread

The core joke of Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy is that of course no civilization would develop personal computers with instant remote database recovery, and then waste this technology to find good drinks.
Steve Jobs has ruined this joke.

Re: Mafia 42 - Shaken Not Stirred.

[TI] Primo wrote:

flint, let me try to explain this to you very carefully.

the assigning of roles has nothing to do what so ever with what role you were last time.
meaning that if you have 20 player in every game, in which 10 players are townie, you will have a 50% chance of being townie in every game.
valid statement: the chance you are a townie in the next 5 games is small: this would be 1/2*1/2*1/2*1/2*1/2 which is 0.03125.
however, the chance for every individual game is still 1 in 2.
so, the chance of Torqez being a townie in this game is: 11/21=0,52380952380952380952380952380952

^ This smile

Now Flint, say thanks to Primo for the stat lesson smile

5 games ago, I had 3% chance of being townie every game.  However, each individual game, (based on the assumptions above), I had 50% chance of being a townie.  Can you come to grasp with this? smile ...it's a little complicated, I know.

Re: Mafia 42 - Shaken Not Stirred.

Einstein wrote:

I am recognized by some doctorates for my work in binary statistics, albiet a not profitable study it does prove I can handle statistics.

^ lol'd

Re: Mafia 42 - Shaken Not Stirred.

well this will be an interesting game.

Leap ahead

Re: Mafia 42 - Shaken Not Stirred.

Einstein. your wrong on your list. cuz i was town , town(spawnrd cop), mob.
and it looks like u messed up other peoples previous roles too, so not sure.what your maths behind your logic are, they will be all higgelty piggelty by your lack of decent information collection tongue.

anyway, im townie, and if cop investigates me im gunna show up townie, an i know theirs an extra mob person who will show up as townie so not much point wasting i on me, tho im sure whoever cop is will know how to play better than me tongue

Been dreaming, I've been waiting, To fly with those brave ponies
The Wonderbolts, their daring tricks, Spinning 'round and having kicks
Perform for crowds of thousands, They'll shower us with diamonds
The Wonderbolts will see me right here at the Gala!

Re: Mafia 42 - Shaken Not Stirred.

so i might get killed off first in an attempt to look like someone is framing wiwi, if he claims to be town ignore it and lynch him in the day phase.

if u need me to explain find me in chat wink

Been dreaming, I've been waiting, To fly with those brave ponies
The Wonderbolts, their daring tricks, Spinning 'round and having kicks
Perform for crowds of thousands, They'll shower us with diamonds
The Wonderbolts will see me right here at the Gala!