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Re: The coming collapse of Syria

The Prime Minister of Syria just defected.

Assad has distributed his chemical weapons to field locations.

The Rebellion seems to be picking up a lot of soldiers now and defections at the top are on the rise.

Syria also faces a tightening budget due to businesses ceasing to do business within and with Syria.

This will increase dissatisfaction and increase the fervor against Assad.


His time is up, though I bet he fights to the bitter end.


Most security analysts say the Muslim Brotherhood will gain control there as well. That means Libya, Syria, and Egypt will be theirs.

Lebanon might finally become a Christian nation again however as Assad cannot keep propping up Hezbollah while he fights at home. Already they are showing signs of strain for losing some access to weapons and funds.

Change is happening...

The only questions remaining are the chemical weapons, the fate of Syrian Christians, and how close the three Muslim Brotherhood natins will act.

Everything bad in the economy is now Obama's fault. Every job lost, all the debt, all the lost retirement funds. All Obama. Are you happy now? We all get to blame Obama!
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2 Reply by Wild Flower Soul (edited by Wild Flower Soul 06-Aug-2012 16:07:04)

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Re: The coming collapse of Syria

The muslim brotherhood differs quite a bit from country to country, so it's quite an overstatement to say that they "control 3 countries".

God: Behold ye angels, I have created the ass.. Throughout the ages to come men and women shall grab hold of these and shout my name...

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Re: The coming collapse of Syria

dont forget the meddling of Russian and Iranian fingers, what goes on over there usually has some hidden agenda with those countries.

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4 Reply by Little Paul (edited by Little Paul 07-Aug-2012 08:37:00)

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Re: The coming collapse of Syria

Yeah I think wfs is right. The "muslim brotherhoods" are different organizations with different agendas and power base. Some are very moderate others are more radical. As people gain more freedom and better education over time, their support will slowly shrink and they will become less radical.

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Re: The coming collapse of Syria

Like the Ayatollah huh? Or like Saddam, Hamas, Hezzbollah, Asad, various leaders of Libya, Egypt, Somalia, and Sudan came straight?

The only real example imo is Jordan to fill your bill.

Everything bad in the economy is now Obama's fault. Every job lost, all the debt, all the lost retirement funds. All Obama. Are you happy now? We all get to blame Obama!
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Re: The coming collapse of Syria

The prime minister had no power, he was just a puppet. The more important message is, that he made it out with his family. He must had support from the intelligence services. It is very likely that important figures there help the rebels. This would explain how it was possible to kill the defence minister with a bomb a few weeks ago.

Assad won't run, because where can he run? The only option would be Russia or PR China. He can only hope to survive in Syria. He will retreat some day to the coast. There his faithful supporters, the Alawits, are strong. That explains why the chemical weapons are on topic. He moves them there. They are his joker. After the rebels took over a major city he may kill them with a chemical strike. Sure, the world would hate him, but this already happend. Nobody may even attack him in fear of his arsenal.

Even when it does not come to chemical warfare, it is very possible that Syria drops into civil war for years or decades. The rebel government is very weak and its members hate each other. They won't make an even bad hand-over when the regime dies.

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7 Reply by Little Paul (edited by Little Paul 07-Aug-2012 11:08:22)

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Re: The coming collapse of Syria

@einstein:
"Like the Ayatollah huh? Or like Saddam, Hamas, Hezzbollah, Asad, various leaders of Libya, Egypt, Somalia, and Sudan came straight?"
I said, as people gain more freedom. That means the democratic process must hold. Every example you give is an authoritarian regime. Nobody can predict whether the experiment will fail or not I admit that. I hope the democratic movement is big enough to hold. Some countries like Libya have more chances then others.

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Re: The coming collapse of Syria

A nation with no democratic tradition tends to struggle. It's a historic law (look at the Weimar republic).
And most countries were ruled by moderately progressive but brutal dictators. It's quite usual to have a swing in the opposite direction after that. It'll all straighten out well, normally.
Tunesia is doing really well. Lybia hasn't broke down in regional conflicts and is slowly making progress. Egypt is more worrying as the military hasn't stepped down yet and there are still protests by the more progressive people. Syria, unfortunatly is a total disaster. I fear our generation will have a lot to answer for towards the next generation.. 1 thing is clear: the UN's security council doesn't work well with the current system of permanent members and should be reformed..

God: Behold ye angels, I have created the ass.. Throughout the ages to come men and women shall grab hold of these and shout my name...

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