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Imperial Forum → Politics → US Defeats Itself
The chinese economy will match that of the USA in fifteen years. Well before resources and environmental factors start to kick in.
for the first time in a century a country out there will match the US economically. the closest anyone's ever come before was a third that of America. see the difference?
EmperorHez,
Well, I'm not doubting you about its economy 10-15 years ahead. I'm saying it will be a short-lived victory, and ultimately the US will enjoy a position as a major supplier of the world's food. And with a booming world population, that role will be increasingly essential. And if it plays its cards right, it could achieve unprecedented power in the decades ahead.
America won't had a monopoly over the world's food supply that's for sure, besides as China grows richer they will be able to import a lot more food. we've gotta remember that China was the biggest economy in the world for about 1700 years, until the Europeans stormed ahead. now it's China's turn to regain it's old position. don't underestimate the importance of economic power. It's huge. as china grows more and more countries will start bending over backwards to please her. soon countries will start being scared of doing something that might upset china. of course china doesn't have the military clout like America does to project power very far but they are working on it. fact is against most countries America doesn't need to use the military. the classic case being Suez in 1956. America told Britain to get lost and Britain listened because our economy was reliant on American loans. that is true power, power without having to use force. the amount of debt America is in right now is unbelievable and China owns a lot of that. IF america wants to stay a superpower for as long as possible than it needs to reign in that debt. which includes pulling out of Afghanistan and not getting involved in hugely wasteful foreign adventures for a good few years.
EmperorHez,
As I said. The USA, Russia, and Canada both own the majority of the most fertile farmland. Farmland in most of the rest of the world is not nearly as productive and is fast depleting. While there are barriers to the US, like short-sighted politicians and business, they can still be overcome if the US seizes its opportunities.
Here is a map of the world's soil fertility:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e5/Global_soils_map_USDA.jpg
The good soil is green and yellow-green. Mediocre soil is bright yellow. That soil is concentrated in North America, Russia and the states of Eastern Europe. And Canada and the US have the best technology for farming, highest agricultural productivity, and the lowest rates of soil erosion. The soil erosion in the US could reverse if it discontinued its self-destructive agricultural policies including subsidies that give farmer's the incentive to continuously produce corn, a soil depleting crop. But even with foolish public policy, soil erosion rates are substantially lower than those of India or China.
You'll also see that China has considerable farmland of good and mediocre fertility. However, that farmland is experiencing soil erosion and desertification due to rising population pressures. Moreover, the large patch of mediocre soil by China's coast is largely unavailable because that is where the majority of China's population is concentrated.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/nov/21/china-soil-erosion-population
- The threats posed to China's northern grasslands.
http://www.news.cornell.edu/stories/march06/soil.erosion.threat.ssl.html
- Soil erosion is 3-4x greater than the soil replenishment rates in China and India. At the same time, it's only 10x higher for the US.
There are many "what if's." But the US is very well positioned to restore its empire in the decades ahead, and become far more powerful than it's ever been. It all depends on the politicians moving the chess pieces correctly.
Regarding loans:
You would be incorrect that China owns a LOT of US debt. Actually, it owns $1.16 trillion or 26.1% of US foreign debt. Whereas Japan is a close second at $882 billion or 19.9% of US foreign debt. Most of the US debt is owned by its public, and the total US debt is around $14 trillion. At best, China owns slightly less than 10% of the US debt. That's hardly enough to state that China has the US by the balls.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_public_debt
Another thing to consider:
The US and Europe share many similarities both economically and culturally. Although the position of the US will likely decline, the US and EU will likely come closer together. European countries may be playing all sides now, but the US and them will become closer together if pressed. This could even result in the political and economic unification of the Western World in the decades ahead. Against this power, China would be easily overshadowed.
$1.16 trillion is a lot. besides America is only as strong as she is due to the status of the greenback. you can bet that China will want to eliminate the competitive edge the US economy has by the greenback being the oil trading currency. currently the Federal Reserve can print dollars knowing that the currency will hardly devalue and the US can get favourable loans on the back of this,all because the worlds central backs need to keep stocks of US dollars in reverse. heck the day US hegenomy finally comes crashing down is when the USD loses it's status as the commodity trading currency, America will be plunged into far more uncertaincy regarding currency.
Also I wouldn't bet too much on a US + EU unification. the EU can't even unify itself into one Federal superstate, just look at how the 27 nations are bickering over the Greek bailout. Europe is certainly not ready to become a superpower yet alone unite with America. (although I agree there is some merit to a US+Canada+EU unity)
America should look North to Canada IMO . unification with Canada would a start. 35 million extra wealthy people, huge natural resources, and as you pointed out fertile farmland. But also what you and many seem to miss. WATER RESERVES. many countries including China will be looking for water reserves in years to come.
the difficulty in beating China is due to its sheer size.all the Chinese have to do is harness their population effectively and their economic might will be hard to beat. the only rival there is India.
but you have to remember China is surrounded. Russia, India, Japan, Koreas, Vietnam, Burma, A-stan etc.
I think America will need to try and surround China to contain it.
lol the greenback.... um that hasent been around for a looooong time 
US dollars are green are they not?
@EH:
energy resources won't be as abundant take 5 years from now. That alone will make farmland more valuable and kill china's growth.
But as this has turned into another china vs US debate -again sigh- here we go
1.) China suffers a huge corruption and internal tensions will probably burst one day in anarchy or democracy
2.) China's satellites are unlikely to remain Chinese as these is very costly to maintain, but they will try at huge expenses because it poses a security thread
3.) China's population is aging
4.) World population grows, food prices will follow
5.) China's growth, which is low given all foreign investment and cheep educated labour, can't be maintained.
5.a.) all countries with low econ profile that emerge from nowhere with this huge econ % cool down eventually.(eg Ireland) Its easier to grow 100% from 1 to 2 then 20% from 10 to 12.
b.) massive foreign investment is bound to lower as western nations econs face economical stagnation
c.) point 3
d.) health problems due to pollution (also causing point 1 some more)
e.) point 1 will hold back growth and increase internal safety spending
f.) point 4
g.) inflation
h.) the increased military spending to try to hold on against the rest of the world who despise them
6.) EU and US WILL come together more. Not only out of need, but also because they are cultural much more similar then most people think. Current antipathy for US will be replaced with hatred against china soon. Wile EU has no chance of surviving the future as a big power due to lack of resources, it will still be a huge power for the times to come.
justinian is right. Farmland is a key powertool in the future, direct and indirect influencing ones strength.
the greenback was a form of currency that america had back in the day that was backed by gold, now our currency is backed by equal worth in debt. odd but true
USA won't do shit, half the country wants to prevent "imbalance" in growth and would rather have 1.5% GDP growth than let the rich get richer
i wouldnt mind the rich getting richer if it benefited me in some way, but it doesnt, they stash the extra cash away becuase surprise, they dont need it, they gain interest on it while there is potential demand to be made with that cash that in a less fortunate family would go towards repairs, foods, and if not needs, they could actually get wants as for games, vacations ect. the trickle down thoery is a massive failure and causes a banana republic every time.
and if we are on the topic of satelite states, lets talk alaska, which is not attached to the united states, and is not a money producer, it once was a profitable fishing export, but exxon took care of that and never paid the fishermen, currently most alaskian take in the most goverment money of all the states. costly i would say, but there are obvious reasons america wants to control that region.
and as for us willingly preventing growth that sounds rather dumb. simply put, cutting taxes for the rich isnt going to help our growth in any way, and it sure isnt going to help our national debt is it? i suppose the government should be self supportive and start selling car insurance or something.
I think the Banana Republic is at hand, where the current rich are government protected and all challengers have to pay through the ass to move up a few rungs during their lifetime.
Valdez spill is done and gone, Alaska makes beaucoup bucks. It just sucks as a place to live, which is why federal government is the biggest employer.
Destroying the idea that the government has to limit who gets what will lead to greater growth, and growth will help us pay down the debt. It's 2011, we should be raping the Asteroids and processing ores with our Lunar factories and vetoing UN resolutions to make us stop. It's time we asked, "WTF is this "we" shit?" and just went for it.
well im sure you could just build a rocket in your backyard.but then again you could ask for investments an a team of sci... oh wait... lets just go for it 
) i like your motto more anyways. saves lots of planning like that ever helped
when it really hits the fan the only thing for it is to sing the Happy Foot song on the way down
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lSLHasN9UXQ
1) China has huge corruption yes but it shows no signs of bursting into anarchy, democracy would be a good thing for the people though.
2) China is increasingly wealthy cost increases will be affordable as their economy grows.
3) the population of US and Europe is ageing too. what China will get in future is increased immigration and decreased emigration as their economy grows which will go some way to reduce the ageing.
4) food prices will affect america and europe too.
5) the present rate of growth will obviously slow down but long term growth is easily acheiveable.
a) the Irish economy has a different profile and isn't comparable
b) foreign investment may lower but china has now got some huge domestic corporations.
c) china like all countries will have to deal with ageing while europe and US has had a favourable situation with regards to little emigration and high immigration as China becomes wealthy they will be more attractive to live in.
d) pollution is unlikely to cause massive instability in china. unless it's nuclear radiation.
e) corruption allows china in some ways to pass projects that democracy would prevent or massively slow down in europe and us.
f) China is investing heavily in sourcing food from affrica. food prices will go up but that will be a problem for everyone not just china.
g) china is working to bring inflation down. it's lower today than it was in 1994 for example.
h) China is increasing military spending by about 12.5% p.a. (though it has varied over the last few years) but despite the loud warnings by the US and her allies China spends less than a $100 billion on the military. compared to America which spends closer to $500 billion.
6) Europe may be culturally more similar to America but as I've said before the EU nations can't even form a single EU state, moreover the alliance with the US has meant Europe has long neglected spending on defence.
I don't think the PRC can tolerate any substantial immigration at all. It fosters loyalty as the only authentic government of ethnic/cultural Chinese. In fact that's a sales pitch by their spies to ethnic Chinese in Western countries: help us out, we're your people. And its intolerant of diversity to an extreme degree, it even has a separate Catholic hierarchy of bishops so Chinese Catholics won't feel loyalty to the vatican.
On the other hand, as an authoritarian regime it can handle a burst bubble very well. It's perfectly capable of telling 100 million people, "You're the losers. Go suck an egg." and that's the solution to its debt crisis.
there are millions of ethnic chinese living all over the place. Russia, Malaysia, Singapore, Canada, US & Europe etc. for years the Chinese have had large amounts of people leaving for a better life.
after years of leaving China this diaspora might be more inclined to return.
"1) China has huge corruption yes but it shows no signs of bursting into anarchy, democracy would be a good thing for the people though."
Its on the brink just like Iran or libia. Libia already bursted. Democracy does not grow in 2 years. Its a slow proces. It would be good, but it would also mean a slowed down growth in the short run and there is always a period of anarchy during periods of transition, doesn't matter what the name.
Let me note however IF it became democratic, how it will be much easier to make agreements between the large power blocks as it will be regarded as less dangerous. Its very hard to predict the future then.
"2) China is increasingly wealthy cost increases will be affordable as their economy grows."
their wealth isn't growing as fast as it did. And it will only slow down. With the average chinese being very poor and ever increasing costs, it will only worsen. But their neighbors grow wealthier as well, and Russia is a rising star with resources and farmland abundant.
"3) the population of US and Europe is ageing too."
Its not even comparable.
"what China will get in future is increased immigration and decreased emigration as their economy grows which will go some way to reduce the ageing."
where will they come from then? China probably holds 2 bilion people unoficially.
"4) food prices will affect america and europe too."
But less, as the average person is rich, and also because they have a much larger food production.
"a) the Irish economy has a different profile and isn't comparable"
fair enough...but all econs growing from nothing show the same profile. How about them?
"b) foreign investment may lower but china has now got some huge domestic corporations."
...in trouble as export will also lower and resource prices will rise.
"c) china like all countries will have to deal with ageing while europe and US has had a favourable situation with regards to little emigration and high immigration as China becomes wealthy they will be more attractive to live in."
Europeans treat foreigners kind compared to China. But its unlikely to become "open" that way. They cannot afford the security risk.
"pollution is unlikely to cause massive instability in china. unless it's nuclear radiation."
In some areas 1 out of 3 children have 6 fingers. But those spectacular events are only small compared to the air pollution comparable to ours in the primal industrial area.
"corruption allows china in some ways to pass projects that democracy would prevent or massively slow down in europe and us."
You're talking about decision taking, not corruption.
"China is investing heavily in sourcing food from affrica. food prices will go up but that will be a problem for everyone not just china."
but the lands with food production will gain more from it, while china has none, and its inhabitants no money.
"china is working to bring inflation down. it's lower today than it was in 1994 for example."
Only due to a global crisis. But its easy to step down from 1994 and still have waaay to much inflation.
"China is increasing military spending by about 12.5% p.a. (though it has varied over the last few years) but despite the loud warnings by the US and her allies China spends less than a $100 billion on the military. compared to America which spends closer to $500 billion."
But a lot more then before. They can't use it if they don't increase it. Nobody can predict the future but chances are they will make the same capital mistake the soviets did.
"Europe may be culturally more similar to America but as I've said before the EU nations can't even form a single EU state, moreover the alliance with the US has meant Europe has long neglected spending on defence."
giving more resources to their economy. It doesn't need to be one state to mean something. If north africa will become democratic as well, china will be even more isolated. On this moment aproximately only 40% of world's countries is authoritarian and by no accident less rich, powerfull and infuential.
lol as for showing no signs, there is a difference between what the large media will show you andwhat ishappening, i just watch a clip where thousands of chinese workers were rioting over thier wages
"It's perfectly capable of telling 100 million people, "You're the losers. Go suck an egg." and that's the solution to its debt crisis."
Not mucht different from what Goldman Sachs and the FED are doing.
>>"It's perfectly capable of telling 100 million people, "You're the losers. Go suck an egg." and that's the solution to its debt crisis."
Not mucht different from what Goldman Sachs and the FED are doing.<<
HA! TARP is about helping 100 million people avoid feeling like losers; China could spare itself a trillion bucks and just impoverish them.
well for 5 days straight DOW has gained roughly 200 pts/day and is currently at 12600, this isnt too surprising besides the sudden jump in demand for oil aswell for the constant almost unhindered growth we seem to be experiencing. i can only hope in continues at this rate.
rising oil prices may be demand and they may be inflation
and stocks may finally be more attractive than US federal debt
those two indicators are up, but just about everything else is down
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