Re: How will America handle being number 2?

4th in the world? last time i checked they had the 2nd economy of the world.

plus many people forget china has a history of being the most important country in the world. Rather than being an emerging superpower, they are just re-emerging and regaining their dominant position....

Maar doodslaan deed hij niet, want tussen droom en daad,
Staan wetten in de weg en praktische bezwaren,
En ook weemoedigheid, die niemand kan verklaren,
En die des avonds komt, wanneer men slapen gaat.

Re: How will America handle being number 2?

they have a history of getting rocked by the US of A. and yer right they are 2nd my bad

Re: How will America handle being number 2?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pLwVycO7V-k

ah yes at what cost will china go to to be #1? death to all thier citizens, at least america only does this to other 3rd world countries, not thier own anymore hehe,

what is it 40% of thier populus lives on less then $150 dollars a years? and i cant tell ya how many times i hear products get recalled for having lead paint.

ohh how bout the infant death rate? too bad for the girlies hope ya can swim, or even hope ya like your new family.

TBH I would hope they can do better for themselves then sacrificing everything to be called #1 economically, because they really never will have american living standards

29 (edited by RisingDown 15-May-2011 19:34:26)

Re: How will America handle being number 2?

Talking about the history before the century of humiliation. Now that it has finally ended, China has the possibility of rising to a dominant position yet again. May i remind you that in the time before this century of humiliation China had been one of the world superpowers and that at the time the USA was nothing but a group of disorganized, poor, barbaric states that had mentioned to gain independence off one of the other superpowers, aka Great Britain, just the century before and had just started on its road to dominance, finally gaining control of the area that is now the USA?

In fact, the USA had actually helped China get out of its century of humiliation it the second Sino-Japanese war.

So what are you saying, history of getting rocked by the USA. The USA didn't even exist in a large part China's glory days.

If the USA managed to gain a dominant position in such a short time, then surely China will be able to REgain it's dominant position? Perhaps even more dominant than the USA.


to adress Little Paul's first post in this thread:

"How will china...
1.) not burst because of population unrest?"
In the past we have seen that every time China hasn't been able to feed its people or when poverty became too great, there were rebellions and revolutions (population unrest) that destroyed the country and forced political reform. However, in this age, the people actually assume that since the government is able to maintain the miraculous 8% economic growth it will surely become able to feed everyone and fight off poverty, if not now then in the future. As long as China is able to maintain the magic number it will not have to deal with population unrest. We have seen in the past financial crisis that China did manage to maintain said 8%, so why wouldn't it be able to maintain it in the future?

"2.) stop inflation?"
Don't know much inflation other than it being controlled by the Chinese government to gain a more advantageous market position to sell products to foreign countries at cheaper prices. Is this inflation really such a bad thing?

"3.) get enough energy in future?"
Nuclear energy perhaps, as China has many areas that are safe for nuclear plants. With control over the media and 99% of the population there will not be as much opposition to more nuclear plants in China as in Western countries. I truly believe this is a way for China to solve any future energy crisis. And otherwise they could just force the entirety of the North korean population to run in threadmills to produce energy wink.

"4.) keep its satellite states together?"
What satellite states? The only one that comes to mind is North Korea. Answer: very easily, China actually produces all of the food and electricity for North Korea so they are entirely dependent on China. A few sanctions and North Korea falls apart. Even Kim Jong Il knows this...

"5.) keep on selling stuf?"
Because people will keep on buying cheap stuff. Especially now, after the financial crisis, has the need for cheap stuff increased. Furthermore, with American dependence on China to buy up its debt, sanctions on China are unrealistic so China will be able to keep exporting cheap stuff to the USA. Other countries who are less in debt (Europe, Latin American countries, other Asian countries, etc.) may not even want to stop buying cheap stuff. Especially since China is one of the majors investors in many of these countries so, again, sanctions against China are unrealistic.


"6.) clean up the massive pollution?"
This will be very hard and perhaps one of the most serious and detremental problems China faces, with the smog damaging the health of its urban population through all kinds of respiratory diseases and the country side and rivers being polluted preventing the opportunity for farming and fishing industries to bloom. I have no answer to this one tongue


"7.) feed the old?"
China has a very techinolically backward agricultural sector in this time. This could easily be intensified and modernized and made more efficient with newer technologies and the use of various fertilizers. Because of urbanization and China's one child policy, the amount of Chinese land owners who use their land for agricultural means (farmers >.>) should surely decrease, resulting in a larger portion of land being owned by fewer land owners, resulting in the land owners being able to turn bigger profits, afford better machinery and fertilizers, intensifying and modernizing agriculture. This again will result in a larger food production and, therefore, enough food to feed the elderly.

Basically, what we see in areas in Africa is a decrease in the size of portions of land owned by farmers as a result of a growing population working in the agricultural sector (due to Africans breeding like bunnies), resulting in poorer farmers. Poorer farmers often results in smaller food productions as the small farmers struggle to produce enough food for themselves. This in China is the opposite.

Maar doodslaan deed hij niet, want tussen droom en daad,
Staan wetten in de weg en praktische bezwaren,
En ook weemoedigheid, die niemand kan verklaren,
En die des avonds komt, wanneer men slapen gaat.

30

Re: How will America handle being number 2?

When a country becomes wealthy, the people want a higher standard of living. This is going to cause alot of problems for china. Also china is in need to invest in other countries. We'll see if these countries will let them. A country with such little human rights will not be number 1 they have to change this first and thats not easy to change.

Re: How will America handle being number 2?

first i gotta say i enjoyed some of your humor you put in your response hehe. NK on treadmills


>"2.) stop inflation?"
>Don't know much inflation other than it being controlled by the Chinese government to gain a more >advantageous market position to sell products to foreign countries at cheaper prices. Is this inflation really such >a bad thing?

yes inflation will drive thier product prices up, decrease demand, increase just about everything costs in thier lands, with them struggling with poverty they must maintain inflation that is much lower then thier growth if they want any kind of improvement.

>7.) feed the old?"
>China has a very techinolically backward agricultural sector in this time. This could easily be intensified and >modernized and made more efficient with newer technologies and the use of various fertilizers. Because of >urbanization and China's one child policy, the amount of Chinese land owners who use their land for agricultural >means (farmers >.>) should surely decrease, resulting in a larger portion of land being owned by fewer land >owners, resulting in the land owners being able to turn bigger profits, afford better machinery and fertilizers, >intensifying and modernizing agriculture. This again will result in a larger food production and, therefore, >enough food to feed the elderly.

where this one child policy really is a kicker is when the "baby boomers" are too old to work, there will be a smaller work force to supply them with food as well as keep up production to covver retirment costs, though china will likely work thier elderly to death which solves a lotta those problems.

Re: How will America handle being number 2?

yall talk about american reform, lets see how much reform happens to china in the next 10 years. i expect it to be very drastic

33 (edited by RisingDown 15-May-2011 20:47:31)

Re: How will America handle being number 2?

> LG wrote:

> When a country becomes wealthy, the people want a higher standard of living. This is going to cause alot of problems for china. Also china is in need to invest in other countries. We'll see if these countries will let them. A country with such little human rights will not be number 1 they have to change this first and thats not easy to change.



Yes, and the Chinese expect the Communist party to get them this higher standard of living. Rather than the economic growth and China's prosperity being an incentive to revolt, it is an incentive not to revolt and follow the rule of the Communist party.

A question, why would countries not like to be invested into? Investment --> Economic growth that doesn't have to be stimulated by the country's government --> profit. Human rights are not a strong enough deterrent for most (developing) countries.




> twosidedeath wrote:

> yes inflation will drive thier product prices up, decrease demand, increase just about everything costs in thier lands, with them struggling with poverty they must maintain inflation that is much lower then thier growth if they want any kind of improvement.


Inflation does not drive up product prices for foreign buyers. It instead decreases the relative price, increasing demand. Why else would China not deflate its currency? Because it doesn't want to lose its advantageous market position and get into situations such what happened to Japan.



> twosidedeath wrote:

> where this one child policy really is a kicker is when the "baby boomers" are too old to work, there will be a smaller work force to supply them with food as well as keep up production to covver retirment costs, though china will likely work thier elderly to death which solves a lotta those problems.


Yes I am aware of the demographic shift from a young population to a population with a huge percentage of elderly. Of course your "solution" of working the elderly to death is quite a realistic option that China might chose. Another option is to export the elderly, such as Japan has attempted in the past. Too bad people like to visit their grandparents from time to time... The question though, was whether they would be able to feed the elderly. Through my suggested solution they will be able to.

Maar doodslaan deed hij niet, want tussen droom en daad,
Staan wetten in de weg en praktische bezwaren,
En ook weemoedigheid, die niemand kan verklaren,
En die des avonds komt, wanneer men slapen gaat.

34

Re: How will America handle being number 2?

A question, why would countries not like to be invested into? Investment --> Economic growth that doesn't have to be stimulated by the country's government --> profit. Human rights are not a strong enough deterrent for most (developing) countries.

Because china doesn't do business like the rest of the world. Its not investement from entreprenuers its investment from wealthy gov't officials who do not act with the same ethics as the rest of the world. Ya you can say america does this but not like the chinese

Re: How will America handle being number 2?

You forget that there are a lot of developing countries... All these developing countries welcome Chinese investments. Most of them aren't too keen on human rights themselves or are indifferent about them.

Furthermore, one of the countries China invests the most in, be it buying companies or just buying debt, is, obviously, the USA. The USA welcomes these Chinese investments as well. Why? Because it brings economic growth. Plus the free market doesn't allow any control.

Lastly there's of course the "hostile takeover".

Not allowing another country to invest in your country is a nice dream that doesn't exist in reality in this world of free markets, economic growth, and, basically, greed.

Maar doodslaan deed hij niet, want tussen droom en daad,
Staan wetten in de weg en praktische bezwaren,
En ook weemoedigheid, die niemand kan verklaren,
En die des avonds komt, wanneer men slapen gaat.

Re: How will America handle being number 2?

"In the past we have seen that every time China hasn't been able to feed its people or when poverty became too great, there were rebellions and revolutions (population unrest) that destroyed the country and forced political reform. However, in this age,"
I agree with you this is a complete other age and should be regarded as such. In this mater, and as interested in china's past as I am, no direct comparison is possible.

"the people actually assume that since the government is able to maintain the miraculous 8% economic growth it will surely become able to feed everyone and fight off poverty,"
But its just not the case. And that's all there is. Propaganda only goes as far. Hungry people do everything.

"if not now then in the future."
I seriously question how. Most of the country is still extremely poor.

"As long as China is able to maintain the magic number it will not have to deal with population unrest."
It is already facing large unrest and invest/loose massive amounts of cash in fighting this kind of unrest. All specialist agree tension can only increase. We are not talking about one source of unrest here. You have Tibet, all sorts of religious riots, democratic movements, starvation, unrest over pollution etc etc.. There are signs the gov is very afraid, almost paranoid over unrest in their country. They tend overact on the slightest sign of any danger that might occur. If anyone should know what is really going on in this field, it will be them.

"We have seen in the past financial crisis that China did manage to maintain said 8%, so why wouldn't it be able to maintain it in the future?"
Notice how this is a percentage, not a real number. That means it shouldn't be compared just like that with western %. But to answer your question: Because we have seen it with any nation with this growth percentages but also because of all other problems china is facing: energy limit, population growing old, pollution, unrest etc etc. You have the natural (bubble) effect any fast growing nation suffers from, it slows down a little and they talk about a crisis scaring investors.

"Don't know much inflation other than it being controlled by the Chinese government to gain a more advantageous market position to sell products to foreign countries at cheaper prices. Is this inflation really such a bad thing?"
When wages increase slower then the prices of consumer products, then the average Chinese gets poorer over time. That is bad for the internal market as well. So when you calc economic growth, you should look to inflation to put it in perspective.

"Nuclear energy perhaps, as China has many areas that are safe for nuclear plants. With control over the media and 99% of the population there will not be as much opposition to more nuclear plants in China as in Western countries. I truly believe this is a way for China to solve any future energy crisis. "
Nuclear energy isn't as cheep as coal energy, but more important it runs on uranium, which isn't endless. If China switches a considerate part of their electricity production to nuclear, prices would skyrocket almost immediately.

"And otherwise they could just force the entirety of the North korean population to run in threadmills to produce energy wink."
lol. But they will face a food problem, unless they let NKoreans eat each other.

"What satellite states?"
Like tibet, part of xinjiang and inner mongolia. The Uyghur people and Tibetans are only 2 examples. But now I'm only talking about china's inside. They try to control some neighbors as well.

"5.) keep on selling stuf?"
"Because people will keep on buying cheap stuff. Especially now, after the financial crisis, has the need for cheap stuff increased. Furthermore, with American dependence on China to buy up its debt, sanctions on China are unrealistic so China will be able to keep exporting cheap stuff to the USA."
China is dependent on USA's grain. That is even more important.

"Other countries who are less in debt (Europe, Latin American countries, other Asian countries, etc.) may not even want to stop buying cheap stuff."
Europe also has a huge debt, maybe less Chinese but ok.

When people become more and more rich (if ever) they will demand more, and production prices will go up.

"China has a very techinolically backward agricultural sector in this time. This could easily be intensified and modernized and made more efficient with newer technologies and the use of various fertilizers. Because of urbanization and China's one child policy, the amount of Chinese land owners who use their land for agricultural means (farmers >.>) should surely decrease, resulting in a larger portion of land being owned by fewer land owners, resulting in the land owners being able to turn bigger profits, afford better machinery and fertilizers, intensifying and modernizing agriculture. This again will result in a larger food production and, therefore, enough food to feed the elderly."
I was talking about how they will pay for their elder in general, not just the food production. The increasing amount of costly old people for the decreasing amount of money gaining young people is a serious problem.

However the food production is another problem they are facing. But that is worth another debate.

Re: How will America handle being number 2?

I predict that China will continue to modernize and increase the ratio of its GDP derived from domestic consumption to the point where resource scarcity will result in unsustainable inflation.  A space race to claim resources of the solar system will ensue.

Hopefully there won't be any major wars.

Re: How will America handle being number 2?

The ascent of our species will go on, but don't assume it will go on carried by western civilisation as we know it. We haven't been given any guarantee that Egypt, Rome, and Assyria were not given. If we don't keep our foot on the pedal, the next step will be taken by people elsewhere - in India, in China, in Africa. Is that sad? No. Humanity has a right to change it's colour.

As someone with access to the performance and quality data on students in my university, there are numerous Chinese students in the fields of maths, economics, and business absolutely wiping the floor with westerners - and then going back home. There are issues with how the university can moderate marks without trashing their home students. There's a similar note regards Indian students.

China, or more broadly Asia, was the world superpower for a LONG time, just until the last century / century and a half when the US took it's place (Industrial Revolution). It's coming back. Like the US is raping the middle east of it's oil, China was stripping the US of it's coal a hundred years ago - where do you think all those China towns came from.

There are a few lectures I highly recommend viewing on the topic:

Here's a nice lecture on "Understanding the Rise of China" - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=imhUmLtlZpw

Here's another nice light-hearted but good lecture on the comparative growth of the US and UK relative to China, India, and Japan - http://www.youtube.com/user/TEDtalksDirector#p/search/10/fiK5-oAaeUs

And another good one on "Global Powershifts", or "The Recovery of China" - http://www.youtube.com/user/TEDtalksDirector#p/search/0/796LfXwzIUk

How will America handle this? Hmm sad .. I don't like to think about that.

Pixies My pokemon brings all the nerds to the yard, and they're like you wanna trade cards?

Re: How will America handle being number 2?

China is more like the US then just about any other country. If China does become the largest economy in the world, which is possible, but by no means guarenteed, then i don't think anything will change. Right now China is number 2 and they have the power to spread their influence globally already. I imagine China's and the US's interests are similar enough where they aren't going to be fighting each other.

Re: How will America handle being number 2?

Please, your talking about a country that fed it's infant born, tainted baby formula full of melamine.

Your also talking about a country that purposely uses the cheapest building material, and cuts all corners regarding safety.

Their emerging as a nation known for Cheap Labor, Cheap Material, and Cheap Expendable Lives.

China is cheap.  Garbage in, garbage out.

=^o.o^= When I'm cute I can be cute.  And when I'm mean, I can be very very mean.  I'm a cat.  Expect me to be fickle.

Re: How will America handle being number 2?

Oh, and lets talk about CHINESE DRYWALL! big_smile

Tainted, poisonous chinese drywall shipped to america.  Which has helped add destruction to the american housing sector.

Maybe it was china's plans to sell us cheap material and poisoned food in the first place?

=^o.o^= When I'm cute I can be cute.  And when I'm mean, I can be very very mean.  I'm a cat.  Expect me to be fickle.

Re: How will America handle being number 2?

I'm talking about a country that no matter how bad it is now, is significantly better then it was 50 years ago and doesn't need to improve the average person's productivity by that much to become the largest economy in the world.

Re: How will America handle being number 2?

1961...

hmmm, segrigation, race riots...era...the french are having a fine time in Vietnam....people were getting fed up with the government, and the flower power generation was slowly coming into their own, by the drug use, which was about to blossom nation wide uncontrollably.

Actually 1961 was pretty much the start of the downfall of this country.  I'm pretty sure Kennedy tried to keep things interesting, and Nixon was "Not a crook."

50 years ago?  It was the beginning of globalization and saber rattling around the world.  Democracy vs. Socialism.

50 years ago, it sucked just as bad as now.  Just different problems.  Though same problems, just much bigger problems today, with higher stakes.

=^o.o^= When I'm cute I can be cute.  And when I'm mean, I can be very very mean.  I'm a cat.  Expect me to be fickle.

Re: How will America handle being number 2?

its not a question of which country is better, its a question of whether China's Economy will become the largest...

Re: How will America handle being number 2?

But for the reasons I stated in this discussion, I don't think it will happen.

To have a good debate, give your definition of "largest econ" Avo cause maybe you're right in your own perspective and also cause debating will lead us nowhere if we speak about different things.

Re: How will America handle being number 2?

largest econ i would guess is largest GDP. To clarify, I am not saying China's economy will surpass the US's economy in 15-20 years, only that there is a possibility that they will. And with how quickly everything changes nowadays i don't see how you can say there is no chance that China will.

Re: How will America handle being number 2?

"5.) keep on selling stuf?"
"Because people will keep on buying cheap stuff. Especially now, after the financial crisis, has the need for cheap stuff increased. Furthermore, with American dependence on China to buy up its debt, sanctions on China are unrealistic so China will be able to keep exporting cheap stuff to the USA."
China is dependent on USA's grain. That is even more important.


Dependence is a wee bit of a strong word. China only buys about 20% of the USA's grain exports. If they were to increase their consumption this would be detrimental to the US too when they drive up grain prices. Not sure if Americans would be too happy about that.
China has also invested heavily in other developing countries in Africa to ease their reliance on the US. I doubt the US would sabotage this relationship with such a big buyer.

China also has the most reliable workforce of cheap human labour in the world. The other up and coming asian nations do not have the working culture to compete with this yet. I suppose this is a remnant of a once powerful empire.

@Key - China is cheap yes, but it learns unlike some other nations. You talk as if advanced economies don't screw people over for short term gain. The way that some westerners sit on their high horse to talk about human rights makes me laugh.

Destiny is only for those too own to make their fate weak.

~ Geese

Re: How will America handle being number 2?

> Geese wrote:

> Dependence is a wee bit of a strong word. China only buys about 20% of the USA's grain exports. If they were to increase their consumption this would be detrimental to the US too when they drive up grain prices. Not sure if Americans would be too happy about that.
China has also invested heavily in other developing countries in Africa to ease their reliance on the US. I doubt the US would sabotage this relationship with such a big buyer.


1: You're looking at the export issue backwards.  The question shouldn't be what percentage of US exports China buys.  Instead, you should be asking what percentage of China's grain is imported, and what percentage of that is from the US.

2: Americans are relatively unaffected by food price changes, because food only accounts for 10-20% of consumer spending.  In addition, American food consumption (not just American, but developed nations in general) is diverse enough to where substitutes can replace goods that become more expensive, although grain is probably the most important of these crops, being important for multiple industries.

3: Also remember that general grain price increases don't easily reach the American consumer.  Remember, US grain production is heavily subsidized to reduce the price.

Make Eyes Great Again!

The Great Eye is watching you... when there's nothing good on TV...

Re: How will America handle being number 2?

Agreed with zarf here.
I even add to that:
"Dependence is a wee bit of a strong word. China only buys about 20% of the USA's grain exports. If they were to increase their consumption this would be detrimental to the US too when they drive up grain prices. Not sure if Americans would be too happy about that. China has also invested heavily in other developing countries in Africa to ease their reliance on the US. I doubt the US would sabotage this relationship with such a big buyer."
The third world is unstable and selling to the highest bidder. Food production there is highly unstable.

"China also has the most reliable workforce of cheap human labour in the world."
I disagree. Unless you think the system survives if it let over 70% of the people starve. Look to my previous posts why.

"The way that some westerners sit on their high horse to talk about human rights makes me laugh."
I never talk high about our press. But its still better as china's. At least sometimes things reache the press, flawed as it may be. Most people live in relative security no mater what opinion they spread. In china you die without having enough friends and your mouth shut. Its an undeniable fact.

Re: How will America handle being number 2?

Another note, even 2% of china's import would be significant, let go 1/5. I can't understand why you consider that unimportant. Nobody can replace that 20% any time soon and its about to increase.