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Imperial Forum → Politics → How will America handle being number 2?
It is predicted that at current rates of growth China will overtake the USA as the number 1 economy in the world within 15-20 years.
America has been the number 1 economy for the last century and it is this enormous economy that has funded the Superpower status and military of America. It is this economy that has gained America such influence in the world.
How will America handle being number 2 in the world?
because...one can predict such thing remotely accurate despite all the variables?
A few simple questions tough:
How will china...
1.) not burst because of population unrest?
2.) stop inflation?
3.) get enough energy in future?
4.) keep its satellite states together?
5.) keep on selling stuf?
6.) clean up the massive pollution?
7.) feed the old?
I agree tough it was america's econ that made it a superpower.
Well obviously LP there could be a bubble in China that bursts but that will probably be only a temporary thing. From what I see some Americans are in denial that China is rising MAJORLY.
do we know America
1) wont burst due to unrest
2) wont stop inflation
3) wont get enough energy
4) wont keep satellite states together
5) keep on selling stuff
6) clean up pollution
7) feed the old?
anybody can predict doom & gloom for the future.
Mass producing cheap junk doesn't make you #1.
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what we currently see in china is the growth spike that happened in the industrialised countries too, when the birth rates decline. A higher percentage of the population is in the productive age range, which obviously creates economic growth. With birth rates declining, the number of children is lower, who are unproductive and actually take away resources in the short term. This is one of the reasons why countries with high birth rates are poorer than those with low birth rates. The downside of this is that a low birth rate creates another problem: the percentage of the old and "again unproductive" rises after a time, which we can see today in the industrialised countries. It is already causing those countries to stagnate or have relatively low economic growth. And here's where chinas future problem lies. China amplified the low birth rate effect due to its 1 child per family plan. This effect will ultimately wear off in like 10 years or so, when the 1 child per family program turns 40 and the big generations from before the program turn from productive members to old retirees who will not be as productive anymore (if at all). This in turn will have an amplified effect on economic slowdown we can see in todays' industrialised countries. If it takes 15-20 years for china to overtake the USA, the decline will happen before that. China wont have an easy time overtaking the USA, much less getting a decent lead in economic strength. USA, you're relatively safe if you dont shrink yourself.
Yes there are problems facing China but the 1 child policy was introduced to prevent overpopulation. right you are that China has got issues to address but I think some Americans are in denial about the Chinese economy.
it wont be easy for China to overtake America but even if their economic growth slows down, which I expect it to then they'll still overtake America anyway. We all forget about how much debt the US is in and that China owns a lot of that.
lol
dont worry about China, they'll be down soon
my facts -> they're buying spanish debt !! 
China will not likely become number one because they have serious demographic problems to keep them down, and they will only get worse over time. Second, they don't have a lot of natural resources like the United States does. Although, I won't rule out the possibility completely, because the one thing the US government is known for is making poor policy decisions.
This does not mean the US won't be overtaken, but the country to do so is more likely to be Russia or India than it is China. As for how Americans will take it should such a scenario play out, I think it would be similar to how the Brits responded when their Empire crumbled.
"1) wont burst due to unrest"
China is full of tension, but it is violently suppressed by the gov.
In the us, people can demonstrate but the number that do so are low, the violent ones even fewer.
Nobody can predict the future but there is no way even comparing at this moment.
"2) wont stop inflation"
inflation in western countries is like 1/10 to 1/5 of that of china.
"3) wont get enough energy"
they have abundance of natural resources
"4) wont keep satellite states together"
I don't see any state separate from US soon. You have any indication for that?
"5) keep on selling stuff"
thats a debate far to difficult to adres in this thread. If you want to debate this, lets open a new one.
"6) clean up pollution"
comparing china's polution to us, is like comparing IC with facebook.
"7) feed the old?"
the problems they face are not of the same order.
we'll become a larger Zimbabwe.
> Justinian I wrote:
> China will not likely become number one because they have serious demographic problems to keep them down, and they will only get worse over time. Second, they don't have a lot of natural resources like the United States does. Although, I won't rule out the possibility completely, because the one thing the US government is known for is making poor policy decisions.
demogtaphivc what?? you are very very mistaken dude, are you americans able to sleep 40 peoplee in a 40m2 room???
well
chineses can doit, they are used to do it, and they have 0 problems with population,
they use thge advantange of confusion because when you see one you cannot discern if he's the one you saw yesterdsy ::/
sdo
fofd
doo
sooo
ooooooooooo
Fear"!!!vthe yellow menace!!!!!
"chineses can doit, they are used to do it, and they have 0 problems with population,"
Then why the one child policy? They do have troubles with their population and need massive grain import from US to compensate and are vulnerable because of that. That is only one effect but there are many more.
are you tryin ta tell me da US o' A is a third world country grain exporter???? X(
ofc we been breadbasket of the planet since 1880s
Render glad to see you're onto the Yellow Peril old chum
how bout we give them the ol' one-two and have spain take the yuan from that debt sale and plow it into the dollar
just sign here old boy us white men gotta stick together
/me gives Spain a clipboard and a pen
I question how much the Chinese government will actually care about their aging population. They aren't known for human rights afterall. Maybe they just choose to gather the elderly out of work populace and starve them to death? For the good of the country, you must starve. I doubt the administration would have much of an issue with it. Would just have to worry about the younger generation being upset about it. Nothing some tanks and the worlds largest standing army (who are fed) couldn't suppress
> [Render] wrote:
demogtaphivc what?? you are very very mistaken dude, are you americans able to sleep 40 peoplee in a 40m2 room???
well
chineses can doit, they are used to do it, and they have 0 problems with population,
they use thge advantange of confusion because when you see one you cannot discern if he's the one you saw yesterdsy ::/
<
In a few decades, China will have too many old people to support, and fewer young people to replace the jobs the older generation once had. Moreover, because male children are preferred, they have a gender imbalance that is only getting worse. Both are caused by the one child policy.
The one thing that concerns me is the gender imbalance. Societies with a gender imbalance resulting in too few women have resulted with a large male population with nothing better to do but stir up trouble with war and the oppression of women.
they could combine with russia to get a healthy gender balance again
RisingDown just hit in an awesome business idea!
1: Connect Russian brides and Chinese single men...
2: ???
3: Profit!
China has so many surplus men that Bejing Disneyland "It's a Small World" is gonna use bachelors instead of puppets
come to think, that's EXACTLY what Kim Jong Il has done in North Korea with those Jurche parades 
@Gondor
A large standing army doesnt work if the soldiers families are affected too. starving off the elderly would most likely affect everyone in the country directly or indirectly. The army only works against political enemies and minorities. If the soldiers themselves are affected, there's a high chance they will rebell. And no dictatorship can work against the nations' army.
I think nuking is the usual solution here...
arach is right about the old people. I add to that China has a culture of worshiping old people and the fact most leaders small or big are old.
well in the usa and china economic debate china was focusing on making themselves a solid importer. it is easy to sell all your resources and grow rapidly with a huge population but they are fighting energy issues which threaten to halt growth. they also use huge ammounts of outdated machinery. they also have way more production room then they can handle. aswell with thier new reforms to thier production industries they are expected to see some losses. lastly they plan to reform thier banking which will allow faster growth but will be more likely to create bubbles
this is kinda funny, were expecting a country that is currently 4th in the world to take over as #1 aswell none of you expect your countries to step up to this challenge?
simply to say, as fast as america rose to number one, for as young as this country is, china has a long ways to go
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