2,401

(24 replies, posted in Politics)

> Arby3 wrote:

> No, read the article. It's stating how china is dumping short term treasury bonds for long term ones. They are realizing we won't be out of this anytime soon, and are further securing their ownership of US debt by moving into long term assets. If anything, this strengthens our economy by providing a safety net on Chinese cash.




> Einstein wrote:

> The article shows they are reducing the long term treasuries as well... Aka, they are dropping the dollar in a controlled manner to try to save some of their investment.

How wonder Gietner has to buy treasuries with made up money



I demand specific quotations from each to indicate where they see their interpretation within said article!  QUOTE WAR!  tongue

2,402

(24 replies, posted in Politics)

Is that supposed to mean "China won't hurt the US economy?"  If so, that's completely unrelated to this issue, because Flint is saying that's just happened.

2,403

(24 replies, posted in Politics)

I'm going to be honest... I'm no longer scared by this threat from China.

The very article you cited mentions that, as of March 2011, China had $1.1 trillion in US treasury bonds, and sold down to $270 billion even before today.  The current move is just a sell-off of part of the last remaining funds.

In other words, if there was going to be a large-scale financial crisis as a result of the T-bond sell-off... it should have happened... 3 times...

2,404

(14 replies, posted in Universal News)

End it and make the next round a first person shooter!

2,405

(12 replies, posted in Politics)

Eh... fair enough, I guess...

*sits on the sidelines to watch*

EDIT: Actually, though, this sort of thread may set up a bad precedent for threads.

Picture, if you will, me doing the exact same thing in another thread:



Title: Global warming will kill us all.

Post:
[Me explaining that there's a theory that CO2 is causing global warming, and stating its implications.]

Response:
Proof?

My reply:
You can find the proof yourself.


Note the problem?  Though I'll admit, by citing the theorem itself (albeit without a link or anything), it may be less problematic.  Just highlighting the issue.

2,406

(12 replies, posted in Politics)

I'm going to be very blunt:

You posted a thread with a conclusion, yet without substantiation within this thread (which we can find ourselves).

What kind of discussion did you think would happen here?

2,407

(7 replies, posted in Ideas)

And if surrender is accepted?

2,408

(12 replies, posted in Politics)

This might be more persuading if you were to provide more explanation/examples regarding the one argument meant to prove your thesis, i.e. Godel's incompleteness theorem.

2,409

(19 replies, posted in Politics)

> twosidedeath wrote:

> haha thanks for pegging me as a republican, but im not tongue


Oh, I wasn't pegging you as a Republican.  I was saying that, under normal circumstances, I would have expected Flint, The Yell, or some other hard-right, free market conservative to jump up at the opportunity to defend the idea of profits...

But they didn't.  Slackers.  tongue

2,410

(19 replies, posted in Politics)

> twosidedeath wrote:

> this really does sound like just about every market out there, a newer product is costly to cover new production costs plus thier research costs, then once they are outdated or challenged by a competitor thier prices will drop to try and keep income comingin ect.

and just like other markets,evenin the food market,people who are capable of producing the product cheaper are often paid to not produce in order to keep prices high and the money flowing in the same dirrection. this is commonplace in i think all markets.

it is understandalbe that people want to recover thier research costs, but they dont stop there, they plan to make profits. this is somewhat a flaw of the free market and can slow growth overall. the companies want to generate profit sooner rather then later at the cost of the buyer.




You're right that most markets do have elements of this problem.  That being said...

1: The proportion between R&D costs for any one drug and manufacturing costs for that drug aren't nearly as proportional in other industries as they are for the pharmaceutical industry.  We're talking about tens of millions of dollars just to produce one pill... which is then used to produce millions of pills.

2: R&D is a unique problem in that, unlike other start-up costs you mention such as manufacturing, the organization which incurs the loss (and actually provided the greatest benefit to society) is the organization that gets punished, outside some sort of protection.  The moment a drug is produced, it's generally relatively easy to reverse engineer the drug to determine how it was produced, then reproduce the drug.  As a result, without patent protection, if business A researches a drug and business B reverse engineers A's drug, A will start off with a mild head start of maybe a couple months production, and $50 million in debt.  Company B will have a few thousand in debt, without doing any sort of scientific advancement.

3: That means the producer of a drug only has a short window of opportunity to actually make profits off their drug.  Once that patent runs out... the company is left to competing with every generic drug company on the planet... which makes it extremely difficult for them to recoup the losses from the R&D.


> it is understandalbe that people want to recover thier research costs, but they dont stop there, they plan to make profits. this is somewhat a flaw of the free market and can slow growth overall.

First of all... seriously, Republicans... what are you all doing on this forum?  This is the land of Flint, The Yell, Avo, LP... and the job of defending the profit motive goes to me?  tongue


If it's bad for a company to obtain profits for their multi-million dollar investment under your interpretation... then why should that company even bother to research new drugs?  For that matter, why would they be producing drugs at all?  Why should a company produce anything if all they can do, at best, is break even, according to those ethical standards?

That's what your equation is forgetting.  Pharmaceutical businesses have incentives for producing what they are producing.  Profits are a way by which society rewards people who do good things for that society.  Without that profit motive, why should a business take the effort to step forward and research new drugs?

Do you go to work 40 hours a week, expecting to be given nothing more than a high five?  Or do you expect payment for your services?  If you believe you should get pay for your service, yet don't like the idea of a pharmaceutical company getting profits, you're a hypocrite.  Pure and simple.

2,411

(19 replies, posted in Politics)

Except the drug market is completely different from most types of markets in that, although pills themselves cost less than a dollar to create en masse, the business is perpetually trying to recoup losses from the research and development, which accounts for millions upon millions of dollars for developing that drug, along with recouping losses from research in other drugs which either didn't prove fruitful or didn't produce research results.  Research is still a cost in producing a drug, except that it's accrued years in advance of the drug actually being produced, without any promise of reward.

It's not a question of them being able to profitably produce drugs cheaper.  If Canada threatened their patents, it's pretty much the equivalent of threatening to shut down the businesses entirely unless they sell their stuff cheaper.

Even if it works for Canada, it's not a sustainable plan to use on a worldwide basis, largely because the companies have to adjust prices in other countries to account for losses there.  If every country has that model... well, you're looking at a much less industrious pharmaceutical industry.

2,412

(21 replies, posted in Ideas)

@Aro

Copycat!

2,413

(24 replies, posted in Politics)

I honestly don't think that much... other than a strategic realignment.  Though I could very easily be wrong, and wouldn't doubt it.  This is an extremely preliminary thought into the matter.


With the removal of oil's strategic importance, the Middle East is no longer such an economically strategic point.  As a result, the West will be much less inclined to support dictators in the region.

In terms of the economics in the West, I'd say it's a relatively peaceful transition.  Oil importers don't really give a crap about oil, except that it's an energy source.  If there's another energy source which does the same thing, the market economy should take care of the transition itself.  For those which are going to undergo a slower transition (people who can't necessarily afford to buy a new car), the oil price decline will relieve the strain on them for a while.

I may have more to add later... this is relatively fragmented because I'd rather read what others think, for now, at least.  tongue

2,414

(24 replies, posted in Politics)

Remember, in Iran, we actually did see a microcosm of what xeno is speaking of, in 2008.  I think I posted about this earlier.

When the financial crisis started, Iran made a big deal about how its economy would weather the storm.  One month later, oil prices dropped from $80 a barrel to as low as $60 per barrel, and continued to decline.  As was mentioned before, Iran was put in a financial crisis, and was forced to cut subsidies and raise taxes.

The result?  The following year, the Iranian election was largely focused on the economic issues mentioned previously.  The protests didn't succeed in exacting political change, but they serve as a case study.

2,415

(24 replies, posted in Politics)

Lemme start with the most obvious:

Those dictators in the Middle East which have propped up their regimes based upon oil prices would be doomed.  Not necessarily immediately, though.  In the cases of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and others, the nations built up reserves called oil stabilization funds... giant backup currency reserves in case the price of oil falls.

This isn't the universal case... before the Iranian election, it was well known that the Iranian government pretty much squandered its OSF before the '08 recession started, putting it in a financial crisis after the fact.  Venezuela is also a culprit here.


But anyway... depending on the size of these funds, the countries in question will have a short timeframe... and I mean short... to begin economic reforms.  This would involve establishing some kind of non-oil industry.

The big problem here is that many of these nations will require a big weaning off from taxes.  Many of these people, such as in Iran, are used to paying absolutely no taxes, and having significant social services paid, largely by oil money.  Iran has probably one of the most extensive social service programs in the world, and it can afford them, due to the oil.

Once oil is no longer an issue... these countries are forced to undergo financial reforms unlike anything we've seen in the Western world.  In many cases, taxes would become a largely new thing (in the Iranian example, the government actually tried to institute a very small business tax, but the banking industry lodged a huge protest).

In the US, the nation underwent a revolution against Britain over an extremely small tax meant to pay for its military.  In many of these countries, its people are going to have to sacrifice free education, free health care, and pay taxes.  I would expect social upheaval... easily.

2,416

(9 replies, posted in Ideas)

And the emails once the angry family starts taking my planets!  tongue

2,417

(17 replies, posted in General)

Stop trying to get on a no-fly list!

2,418

(9,083 replies, posted in General)

Is the text equivalent of the kid who spends days testing thousands of different characters and fighting strategies, only to be beaten by the kid who only uses Raiden's flying shove combo

2,419

(9 replies, posted in Ideas)

One major problem:

Speaking on behalf of terrible bankers throughout IC, I oppose anything which will inevitably force me to clear out 300 messages sent within the course of 5 minutes, each being another reminder of my failure.

2,420

(9 replies, posted in Politics)

I know it's rare, but I think xeno may be right.  (Just joking around, xeno... nothing personal) tongue

The issue isn't one of Chinese monopolization of rare earth metal supplies.  It's an issue of rare earth metal mining and export.  Australia, India, and the US all have significant supplies, but simply are not utilizing them.

This is actually a good thing.  Compare this to the oil market.


The United States has a significant reserve of oil in regions such as Alaska.  Now, if these Alaskan reserves were in a desert in Texas or in a complete wasteland, the well would have been drilled long ago.  Because, quite frankly, barring environmental issues, there really are no short term incentives against drilling for oil when one knows the oil is there... it's an instant moneymaker.

However, its presence in ANWAR creates an additional strain on politicians.


Here's the trick, though: I don't believe ANWAR is untouchable, except by its most ardent supporters.  For example, assume OPEC did cut off oil shipments, and the US had not yet transitioned to an alternative energy source.  Even if the US can purchase oil, the price per barrel would run through the roof.  Or consider a WW2-esque military situation, in which the United States needed to supply a huge war machine (I'm talking total war mobilization, not that Iraq War-level mobilization).  Under those circumstances, I don't believe anyone except the strongest environmental advocates would put the ANWAR environmental preservation over such a prevalent national security threat (remember, I'm talking most extreme circumstance).

So why is this important?  Untapped supplies create mobilization reserves of scarce resources.  Before World War 2, the United States and Japan were able to create a bitter economic war with one another, making the war itself inevitable.  Before Pearl Harbor, the United States reprimanded Japanese expansion by embargoing exports of oil.  At the time, with the US being their primary supplier, the Japanese were forced to take drastic measures to combat this problem, forcing them to speed up expansion in the hopes of either acquiring their own oil reserves or forcing the US to lift its own embargo.

Meanwhile, the US had its own resource shortage.  Of particular note, Japan was able to conquer Malaya from the UK early in the war.  That gave Japan control of 97% of the world's supply of rubber, which was necessary in pretty much every piece of mechanized military hardware.  In recognition of this strategic difficulty, the US had to actually build up a strategic stockpile of rubber, similar to the strategic reserve of oil today.  Meanwhile, the US would be funding development of synthetic rubbers, until the country could obtain independence from foreign imports of rubber (sound familiar?).  In time, synthetic rubbers became more commonplace in the US, and although the rubbers at the time didn't match up to natural rubber, it became adequate enough for the military.

If you look, every country involved in the war inevitably had these resource issues of one type or another.  For example, on the Eastern Front, Germany was within inches of knocking the Soviets out of the war by taking their #1 oil reserve in the Caucus region, which would have taken the Soviet tank and aerial forces out of commission (Hitler botched this up by ordering a redeployment of tanks and manpower for a simultaneous offensive in Stalingrad... and we all know what happened there).  Economics wins wars.  smile

Anyway, those resources in ANWAR that we're talking about act in a very similar fashion.  When oil prices are sitting at $20 a barrel, it's really difficult to make the case that a country needs to drill in the region.  However, as the price steadily rises to $30, $40, and more, advocates can make a much better case in favor of drilling, to the point where it becomes prohibitively more expensive to maintain the environmental refuge.  At some threshold (which could easily never actually manifest), the political opposition to drilling becomes so insurmountable that even its original opponents will be faced with too much opposition to resist a switch of opinions.

It's the same with rare earth metals.  Currently, China is maxing out their reserve to supply to the world.  I am 100% fine with that.  Why?  Because the US has its own strategic reserve of rare earth metals in case China ever decides to use that control to their political advantage.  Meanwhile, China will be using up their reserves during the peacetime period.  They'll make money, yes.  However, for the time being, it's not a strategic resource.  It's kind of the same as complaining that Japan monopolized the video game industry in the 1990's.  Once it actually becomes a political issue, however, production can be kicked up in non-Chinese areas.


But this is definitely an interesting scenario nonetheless.

2,421

(9,083 replies, posted in General)

Argued with a fire marshal after his house made out of straw was condemned as an undue fire hazard

2,422

(40 replies, posted in Community)

In part, it depends on your itinerary.  Have any idea of the places you plan on going, or is the idea to just... go?  tongue

2,423

(19 replies, posted in Politics)

> Einstein wrote:

> So is the F-35 fighter, which while the actual cost to make one is 1/50th of the final cost, the lack of demand has kept the price high due to initial research costs. An increase in the customer base by 100x will actually bring costs dramatically down (Probably to 1/20th the current costs) over time.


I don't care how cheap it will be... I'm not going to support letting F-35s be sold at Walmart!

2,424

(7 replies, posted in Ideas)

1. Because when everyone in the galaxy is charged with war crimes for their mass genocides against particular species... it would be nice to have a body count as evidence.

2. Nope!

2,425

(17 replies, posted in Ideas)

> sdfdsgdfs wrote:

> Shutup []win!!!



This edit is full of win!