2,476

(55 replies, posted in Politics)

> [Stupid] Arachnophobia wrote:

> tax revenue and budget +/- should be obvious
usinflationcalculator.com gave me 20.4% inflation rate for 2000-2007
I estimated the war costs in 2007 from this graphics: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:U.S._Defense_Spending_Trends.png, the red part.

Note: My calculations are based on the assumption, that there would have been no economic growth above inflation rate without the tax cuts. This is the ultimate concession IN FAVOUR of the tax cuts. And still it turned out with a minus.


There's a difference between the two assumptions.  The assumption I cite (that external budget increases aren't factored in) can be identified and removed from the equation.  I'd ask anyone reading this to tell their list of budget items which were increased during this time, which are in need of being removed from the equation.

The economic growth issue, however, can't easily be eliminated because we don't know what growth would look like without the cuts.  At most, we can get our final, fuzzy number, then guess from there...

2,477

(55 replies, posted in Politics)

Could you post a link to those sources?  Interesting evaluation, and I'd like to look into it a bit more...

Aside from that, though, you're forgetting one big Bush policy: Medicare Reform.

2,478

(55 replies, posted in Politics)

> twosidedeath wrote:

> >>F) Bush inherited a budget surplus from clinton. Obama inherited a huge deficit plus even more expenses with no way around in his term<<

Clinton had the same "fundamentalist opposition" on his nuts keeping him from his liberal schemes, forcing govt to grow at merely the rate of inflation and ending welfare as an entitlement.  Clinton also enjoyed a bubble economy.   Obama took a $500 billion a year deficit and set up a $300 billion a MONTH deficit.  "Helicopter money", remember?  Like hell he has no way out.  He wouldn't want it if you ran for Congress, won, wrote it down, had the House pass it and sent it to him.  Just ask Paul Ryan.


At most, that excuses Obama for year 1's deficit (the bailouts).  Everything beyond that was largely new programs (example: the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act).

true these were designed for long-term results, creating new jobs to stabilize the employement rates and such. but i wouldnt say that this excuses him for 1 year at most. you cant give someone 1 year to fix 8 years of crap.



Before I go into this, please define "8 years of crap" which Obama has so diligently created a $1-2 trillion per year deficit trying to fix.

2,479

(55 replies, posted in Politics)

> twosidedeath wrote:

> >>D) Obama cant raise taxes again because of the fundamentalistic opposition<<

Obama can't raise taxes again because even he seems to understand that he stands a snowball's chance in hell of getting re-elected if unemployment rises above 10%.  Tax hikes kill jobs.



Note, also, that he could have done so when the Dems had majorities in both houses.



no the republicans phibustered consistently. thats why there was such a long time of deadlock on both sides.



Impossible.  Dems had the supermajority in the Senate until the Massachusetts special election.

2,480

(55 replies, posted in Politics)

> twosidedeath wrote:

> >>B) the two wars skyrocketed expenses<<

Combined that's less than $900 billion a year, max.  Federal spending was over $2 trillion in 2009.

just gotta point out 900B is just about half of 2 trillion.... so yea that would be a good place to start cutting funding to reduce the deficit. Its not a single problem causeing a deficit its a cluster [my own effort against masking] of things that makes it so. i would think 900B is one of the bigger if not the biggest contributor and the most obvious issue with our problems


A couple additional notes on this one:
1: The Afghanistan war was bipartisan, so you can't blame that solely on Bush.
2: That $900 billion note was the high-end cost of the wars, not representing the total cost.
3: As mentioned previously, those wars are both dying down, so they can't be to blame for future deficits.
4: Remember, the #1 purpose of the state is security, above all else.  Thus, even if those are deficits, all other things being equal, those can be considered justified deficits in extreme situations.  Just like how you can't blame Roosevelt for deficit spending during World War 2, War on Terror spending following the largest attack on a US civilian population can similarly be seen as a justified expense for the defense of a nation.

2,481

(55 replies, posted in Politics)

> The Yell wrote:

> "You do realize that the reason why there's such a huge deficit is the Bush presidency, because:

A) the tax cuts crippled the income side<<

No. Tax cuts spurred economic growth. See your point C).  Less money looted for taxes means more to invest and spend.  The idea that tax hikes have no effect on economic choices is at last 'professionally' refuted.
More growth means more revenue. Less growth means less revenue.  Regardless of rates.  You can mandate Rates but not Revenue, just as you can mandate Prices but not Sales.  for the same reasons.



I want to add to this that, starting in 2005, the US was actually gaining more revenue than pre-tax cut levels.  [Will find support evidence later]



>>B) the two wars skyrocketed expenses<<

Combined that's less than $900 billion a year, max.  Federal spending was over $2 trillion in 2009.



Also note that, as of now, both wars are winding down.  We've pulled out from Iraq, and are in the process of a drawdown from Afghanistan.  So you can't pin those as the sources of current deficits.



>>C) the financial crisis was based on the tax cuts, putting too much money into the market<<

Well if ya wanted to shrink the economy, MISSION ACCOMPLISHED


Actually, if the financial crisis was largely a result of subprime lending gone bad, wouldn't it be a problem of liquidity (lending money that doesn't exist), not finances on hand?  Plus, if the issue was a "too much money into the market" issue, we would have seen inflationary trends... which we aren't even seeing post-bailout (yet).


>>D) Obama cant raise taxes again because of the fundamentalistic opposition<<

Obama can't raise taxes again because even he seems to understand that he stands a snowball's chance in hell of getting re-elected if unemployment rises above 10%.  Tax hikes kill jobs.



Note, also, that he could have done so when the Dems had majorities in both houses.


>.E) Obama cant cut the military budget for the same reason<<

so true, the Libyan "fundamentalist opposition" does rely on the US defense budget staying where it is



Add my note from D here.


>>F) Bush inherited a budget surplus from clinton. Obama inherited a huge deficit plus even more expenses with no way around in his term<<

Clinton had the same "fundamentalist opposition" on his nuts keeping him from his liberal schemes, forcing govt to grow at merely the rate of inflation and ending welfare as an entitlement.  Clinton also enjoyed a bubble economy.   Obama took a $500 billion a year deficit and set up a $300 billion a MONTH deficit.  "Helicopter money", remember?  Like hell he has no way out.  He wouldn't want it if you ran for Congress, won, wrote it down, had the House pass it and sent it to him.  Just ask Paul Ryan.


At most, that excuses Obama for year 1's deficit (the bailouts).  Everything beyond that was largely new programs (example: the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act).

2,482

(55 replies, posted in Politics)

> Justinian I wrote:

> LOL. We have a lot worse problems on our hands than ethanol. Our government's agricultural policy is literally eroding the soil.


And you don't think subsidizing the production of a single fuel-generating crop is a major contributor to that erosion?

2,483

(55 replies, posted in Politics)

> [Stupid] Arachnophobia wrote:

> And all because of Bush and his spending spree...


You do realize that Obama has already spent way more than the collective 8 years of the Bush presidency, right?

2,484

(28 replies, posted in Politics)

And Canada doesn't have that big a population, so it's only a matter of time before someone sifts you out!  Next time, you should try hiding in India or China.  smile

2,485

(12 replies, posted in Politics)

Yup.

@RisingDown will get to your post in a little bit, lol tongue

2,486

(2 replies, posted in General)

smile

2,487

(956 replies, posted in General)

Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah!

Kt?

2,488

(12 replies, posted in Politics)

@LP

Simple game theory would question that notion.


If you acknowledge that enforcing the threat is bad, but the threat itself is good, then the threat is only good if China backs down.  Otherwise, you're in a scenario where either the US is obligated to enforce the tariff (which you have acknowledged is a bad idea), or back down on a challenge it has initiated, which is nearly as bad as the cut (devastated US international credibility with regards to China policy for at least that 4 years).  And if the Chinese think that they will be hurt just as much by ceasing currency manipulation as they would be hurt by the 25% tariff, it's in China's interest to challenge US interests on the subject.  If it's in China's interest to refuse our demands, there is no benefit in the threat.

In short, then, your stance is "it's a good idea as long as everything goes perfectly according to plan A."

@RisingDown

Remember, this isn't just some random issue he's talking about.  Trump has so far made the China trade issue the basis of his campaign.  How often do you see a candidate bring forward an issue otherwise not at the public purview for the purpose of winning votes, only to back down on that?  If a candidate is going to bluff on an issue, they're generally going to bluff on an issue that is already generally popular.  Debt reduction comes to mind here.

Also, remember that it would pretty much be the worst bluff imaginable.  Unlike pretty much every other desired policy, the President can authorize a tariff through executive order, within congressional limits.  In 2010, Congress passed a bipartisan bill to authorize the President to increase tariffs against currency manipulators (China included), although I'm not sure how Obama reacted to it.  Either way, if Trump is going to bluff on an issue, it sure as hell shouldn't be an issue which he can conduct by executive order.  Otherwise, he can't blame the other side or internal politics for preventing reform on that issue.  Once again, debt reduction comes to mind here.

In addition, remember that Trump is advocating that stance.  Your "he won't do X because it's bad for the country" is EXTREMELY subjective and, quite frankly, egotistical.  You are claiming that because you believe X is bad for the country, he must also believe that X is bad for the country.

First of all, you're not a mind reader, so there's no way you can claim to know his thoughts.  But second, and more important, your stance assumes that your view is the universally accepted viewpoint of the community.  The fact that Trump can, and has, made arguments to the contrary contradicts the fundamental thesis of your argument.


Anyway, as for the split to being an Independent, I'm personally more willing to accept that he's bluffing on that one, as he was careful to give himself an out on that ("if I think I can win as an independent").  However, remember that we're not talking about some random senator.  We're talking about a businessman with deep connections among both the business and political world and a level of cult personality among voters from his TV show.  In addition, the Republican party is an increasingly a divided organization with the rise of its tea party wing, which Trump can capitalize upon, if he so chooses.  Remember, the major assets a political party provides are cash flow and legitimate endorsement.  Trump has close enough ties with the business world to take care of cash flow, so legitimacy is the only thing they have to offer... which is hindered anyway by the GOP split.

2,489

(57 replies, posted in Universal News)

[Reserved for conscripting politics forum posters into a family] tongue

2,490

(956 replies, posted in General)

Nope!  The yell?

2,491

(68 replies, posted in Politics)

Yes.  smile

2,492

(6 replies, posted in Politics)

See my post in the other thread on this subject.  tongue

2,493

(68 replies, posted in Politics)

> Render wrote:

> "the problem with politic forums is that you spend time in reading things, then spend more time in understand what you've read, then spend more time in thinkin if you're interested or not, in case you're interested then you have to think about your opinion, and then you spend more time in writing it, then you post and re-read your own post, then you spend more time in editing, then you wait someone answers or gives another opinion, most of the times people dont follow a thread just go their own way, another times you get flamed, so you have to spend more and more time....

At the end of this process you are standing the same you were before, you havent learned anything at all and wasted a precious time."



Disagree.  You're not the one who's supposed to benefit!

Actually, let me flag this as part of my forum agenda.  Sounds like a good segway...

*********************************************************************************************************************


Politics forums have an inherent paradox in them.  The more solidified in an opinion a person is, the more that person is willing to engage in, and continue, a debate in the forum (because they know they are right).  Those who are less solidified, however, are much more likely to either express a small opinion ("I agree with X," then goes off to read the forum) or to read without contribution.

Have you noticed, consistently, which threads continue to get posts?  We consistently see that those threads which continue debates have at least one participant in the debate which could easily be argued as being unwilling to analyze arguments, and only willing to use the forums for their own idea propagation.  I won't cite the specific examples here because they would be considered personal attacks, which I in no way intend.

Also, note which subjects will receive more attention, and which will receive less.  If I decided to debate a controversial topic, even if I did nothing but rehash age-old arguments over and over, I'm pretty sure I could rile up people enough to get a 100+ post debate going.  I've always noted that religion and gun control were hot topics here...

What isn't debated, then?  Topics that are more thought out.  A couple examples I could give:
Justinian's brief history of the Crusades (I'd say extremely informing on both sides of the issue, nice job everyone there on both sides)
I once posted a proposed theory about wartime mobilization politics.  I think I got 3 responses, none of which disagreed

Does it mean these threads aren't informative?  Hell no.  The inherent paradox is that if I proposed a new budget for the US which would reduce taxes, eliminate the debt, keep the economy rolling, and make everyone in the planet happy, that thread would probably end up going to the bottom of the pile because there wouldn't be an incentive for people to reply, except for the couple people that say "nice job!"  But if my proposed budget was "sell all infants in the country to Mexican drug lords," I'd get more replies, making the "drug lord" thread seem more "educational" and "constructive" than the other thread.


What does that mean for the people who are here?  Now first, I want to acknowledge that we are willing to let a debate die.  Personally, I've been notorious for letting debates I was extremely interested in die, largely due to my own procrastination.  But that's a personal problem which we, as a community, can't change... it's on those people to regret screwing up on those threads.

However, the point I'm bringing forward is that our forum is actually at a more evolved state of debate.  The incendiary people in the forum have had their fun and are largely gone.  Once in a while, we get people who are interested largely in personally attacking people, but they're short lived.

In place, we have many people who are honestly willing to debate an issue (for the most part).  While this forum used to be dominated by the likes of people like Decimus and Black_Wing, the major forum posters here now are people like Justinian and Little Paul.  We have our strong opinions in areas, but not in all fields.  We're relatively willing to listen to others.  Most importantly, we're relatively respectful of others.  We get our fair share of mod intervention, but it's more due to issues like swearing which, although bad, aren't bad for the same, more destructive reasons that personal attacks are subject to mod intervention.


Note: Yes, this is a bit of a retraction from my stance of last year.  I know I planned a big Politics Forum Constitution a year ago, but the intricacies of that proved unnecessary, due to both the natural evolution of the Politics forum and to some behind-the-scenes talks between myself and others, who will not be mentioned for their own privacy.  I will note, however, that I think I offered a slight amount of assistance to this, only by helping make the mods aware and proactive on the issue through my failed program.  I honestly thought I messed up, but upon seeing the forum, I think we're honestly much better now than we were before.



So how do we move forward, then?

First of all, I want to note that the initiative is now in the favor of those who value honest debate and issue analysis above attacks and demagoguery.  As a result, if you have an issue you want to address, you are much less likely to get attacked personally than you were 3 years ago.  And if you do, those people who are here are the same people who want to end that personal attack stream.  Your opinion can be heard without problem.

That being said, the only problem remaining here is one of a lack of interest.  We are more reserved in deciding where we make our posts.

The solution?  To spark interest.

Here's my proposal:
Everyone willing to participate commits to produce one well-thought out thread per week for the next month.  Ideally, something they want to talk about.  If a thread dies... well, it's not an issue which sparked interest... no harm done.  Note, though, that the goal here isn't to create the perception of activity.  Instead, the goal is to find those few topics which will spark enough interest to get a debate going among our community.  In short, I'm trying to find common interest.

Remember, forum activity in Politics is judged differently than other forums.  If we have 40 threads made in the past week, each of which received 5 posts total, you have 200 posts.  Alternatively, if you have 2 threads which receives 50 replies each, you have only half the posts.  But you have a well thought-out, constructive debate.  Thus, the forum with just 2 topics would technically be a better forum than the 40 topic forum, despite the post count.

Who's interested?


EDIT: Actually, this may also be a good opportunity to bring back my old IC Constitution idea, but simply as a statement of values, as opposed to my original idea (essentially a legislative organ intended to fight opposition).  Perhaps we could create a "Guide to posting" similar to what exists in Roleplay, just for a simple informative purpose?

2,494

(13 replies, posted in Drafting)

> Arby3 wrote:

> After receiving a forum ban for spamming, I was congratulating him on learning from the mistake. No sarcasm.


Except blocks aren't supposed to be discussed in forums!  yikes

2,495

(12 replies, posted in Politics)

> RisingDown wrote:

> Bluff. Judging by his ideas (25% tax on china, impossible to do without damaging your own country) I'd say this is all bluff to win votes. He won't run as an independent if he doesn't win GOP primaries, just as he won't enfore a 25% tax on everything from china (just as china won't shape up wink ).


Got anything to base that on?

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/chatter/2011/04/trump-will-probably-run-as-independent-if-he-doesnt-win-gop.html

""I am very conservative," the billionaire said in a video interview with the newspaper. "The concern is if I don

2,497

(23 replies, posted in Politics)

> Einstein wrote:

> If you are braindead you missed Friday's epic showdown between Democrats and Republicans.


Might I suggest you edit that out?  From a purely observational perspective, not the best introduction to any post meant to inform other people...

Bump?  Anybody?  tongue

That would probably be the only thing I'd do there... tongue

You would be the one to reply...